Best Ball Drafts - Early ADP Surprises

It's been a while since we last saw an NFL football kicked off. Kansas City won the Super Bowl almost two months ago and ever since Feb. 1, Bestball10 has been gathering draft data for best-ball football leagues starting next season. That is great, as early data is already available and there are plenty of entries in the dataset as to make for a big and reliable one. So far, of the 376 different players (and DST) drafted in early best-ball leagues (including upcoming rookies) only 36 have appeared in each and every draft held at BB10.

Even with that, 390 picks form a bulky enough set of outcomes when it comes to building a solid ADP and study how it is looking these days with the free agency stage of the offseason mostly done and the draft in the horizon. Knowing what each player did in 2019, the moves made by franchises and players this offseason, and the spots where assets are being drafted at, it is easy to go and find some under/overrated players by the look of things.

In this space, I'll go through the four offensive positions of fantasy football highlighting some names that have caught my eye this early in the calendar year given the price being paid for the players and what we know about them and their expectations going forward.

Surprising ADPs at Quarterback

• Although not "surprising" per se, Lamar Jackson's rise of 111 spots from 2019 to 2020 is more than noticeable. He's the quarterback with the biggest bump in ADP from last season to the next one beating... Daniel Jones! Jones had the seventh-highest win rate at the position (10.2%) but he should keep improving and owners are drafting him more than 87 spots earlier now than last year, giving him an ADP of 133.9.
• Ryan Tannehill monster streak of starts during the second half of the season has bumped his ADP all the way up to 149.3, more than 78 spots above his 2019 average ADP. Be cautious with Tannehill, though, as his win rate was rather low compared to most (if not all) players at the position.
• Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Josh Allen are the three quarterbacks seeing bumps in their ADP I would still pay nicely for. They had the second, seventh, and ninth-highest win rates over the 2019 season and enter 2020 with similar or better tools surrounding them, plus they are still young and improving quarterbacks.
• Philip Rivers' (192.3) and Baker Mayfield's (138.3) ADPs have crashed from their 2019 values. While Rivers shouldn't be expected to have anything close to a no. 1 quarterback season this late in his career (although the change of scenery might do him good), Mayfield is almost a lock to rebound at least a bit. Cleveland is loaded and has even added more interesting pieces to an offense that will also include a (supposedly) bounce-back candidate in Odell Beckham Jr. too. These two are great under-the-radar picks if you're waiting on QB.

Surprising ADPs at Wide Receiver

• While the rise of D.J. Chark's ADP (from 219.9 to 65.3) is huge yet understandable, that of A.J. Brown's (from 199.7 to 33) is a little bit more concerning. Chark finished last year with 218.4 fantasy points compared to Brown's 194, not a great difference, but Brown's win rate of 18.3% by the end of the season was "only" the 11th-best among receivers to reach at least 100 fantasy points in 2019. That put him under the likes of Darius Slayton (ADP 109.3), John Brown (100.8), and Jamison Crowder (109.8) who are all going off the board later than at the 100th spot.
• Speaking of Slayton, his ADP has seen quite a pricy development from last season (222.8) to this one (109.3) but his 16.7% win rate last year ranked third among WRs with at least 100 FP on the season and that makes him good bet even at his price (still nothing close to really high, truth be told).
• A lot of owners seem to be betting high on D.K. Metcalf (ADP 69.9) and Preston Williams (148.2), but they had 7.6% and 8.3% win rates at the end of last season when all was said and done. Williams missed every game from Week 9 on and should bounce back and maintain a good performing level during a full 16-game schedule. Metcalf turned into one of Seattle's best offensive weapons but still needed a monster 27-fantasy point game in Week 9 to bump his win rate from around 6% to his final under-8% mark. Both seem to be risky plays with upside but a lot of doubts surrounding them.
• Larry Fitzgerald's ADP has plummeted from 88.5 last year to his current 184.6. While Arizona has added DeAndre Hopkins via trade and that will relegate Fitzgerald, it will also open him to softer coverages. That, paired with a second-year QB in Kyler Murray tells me Fitz could be in for some booming games this season.
• T.Y. Hilton has experienced something similar to Fitz. Hilton's ADP has dropped from 29.3 in 2019 to 95.6 right now, making him a good bet in an offense barred of other receiving weapons and now featuring Philip Rivers instead of Jacoby Brissett. Keep in mind that Hilton enters 2020 with a low 6.3% win rate, although that is mostly the product of missing most of the second half of the season (he was at 9.1% entering Week 8 and 11.1% after four games).
• Keenan Allen (ADP 49.4) and Tyler Lockett (75.8) are the only two receivers to finish 2019 with win rates above 11.3% (Allen had 14.2%, Lockett 13.7%) that have dropped in ADP from last season to this one.

Surprising ADPs at Running Back

• Of the running backs to finish 2019 with at least 50 fantasy points over the year, Raheem Mostert has seen the highest bump in ADP from last year (223.9) to its current value (82.8). That doesn't mean he was ridiculous last season, though. Mostert racked up 144.9 FP and logged a win rate of 3.3% over the year. Those numbers ranked him 32nd in FP and 63rd in W% after 16 weeks, nothing to be too proud of. His final few games of the year looked good, but the risk seems a little bit high considering other players being selected at similar spots.
• Barring the obvious case of Austin Ekeler, the other two interesting risers in ADP are Miles Sanders (from 82.6 to 21) and Aaron Jones (from 31.3 to 10.7). Both of them finished 2019 with win rates above 14% (14.1% for Sanders, 16.1% for Jones), racked up 210.6 and 298.5 fantasy points respectively, and their situations are--at the very least--as good as they were a year ago.
• Only 11 more running backs not mentioned in the points above logged 10%+ win rates while scoring at least 67 FP on the year. Of those, Latavius Murray is the one with the highest ADP drop: he's gone from 81 to 130.5 this season yet the Saints are the same, have retained Brees, and we'll see if Kamara can stay on the field for a full season this time around. He's worth a late flier. Chase Edmonds and Derrick Henry have both bumped up their ADPs between 25 and 27 spots with the latter slotting at 9.4 overall. Henry's 2019 season was incredible so it makes me pause when thinking about drafting him that early as he is bound to regress a bit at least on paper.

Surprising ADPs at Tight End

• Everybody is clearly jumping on Darren Waller after his great 2019 season. Waller finished the year with 204.4 fantasy points and a monster 17.3% win rate only bested by Mark Andrews' 17.5%. That explains Waller's ADP jump from 186.9 to 51.6 now, still affordable considering the upside he carries with him.
• Austin Hooper ranked fourth in win rate (14.2%) among tight ends and that has put his ADP at 72.5 this season. That is nothing too crazy, but he's now part of a Browns team where he'll share the field with very potent players at other receiving slots and even at running back, which could make him a risky bet not worth paying a lot for.
• Zach Ertz's ADP has gone 21 spots down to 46.6 currently, yet he had the fifth-highest win rate of the season last year among tight ends at 12.6%. Philly was absolutely ravaged by injuries all season long, and that shouldn't happen this season. Add some potential draftees at the receiver position to soften Ertz's load and that should have the TE having another monster year in 2020.

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