ADP Arbitrage - Tight End Draft Bargains

If you missed it, we've already reviewed running back and wide receiver ADP comps to find better bargains in the middle rounds. Now, we move on to the non-glamour position of tight end, which is still crucial to any fantasy football squad.

While ADP is very informative and can help you get informed about where you should start worrying about potentially missing on a player, it shouldn't have as much weight as to affect your decisions massively. Take Lamar Jackson's 2019 season: 417.7 PPR points, second-best in the whole NFL, and current holder of a 21 ADP that is seeing him drafted inside the first two rounds of drafts. Does that mean you should absolutely trust Jackson having another monster year that when all is said and done gives you a good return on investment after paying a second-round pick for him? Nope! In fact, the most logical thing to happen is having Jackson regressing and finishing with more average-ish numbers in 2020.

In this four-entry series, I'll go through the four offensive positions of fantasy football highlighting some names that are going for cheap in drafts these days and how they are expected to produce similar numbers to other much more hyped players demanding owners to take much riskier bets and to pay way higher prices.

Identifying Overpriced TEs

I'm not going to play games in this column and bring middling names to the table, no. Instead of that, I'll be going for the fences and swinging the bat with all of the power to get some fantasy-heavy names here and there. No second-tier players here, that is.

Even if I wanted to hand you some alternative names, I wouldn't have been able too. Such is the scarcity at the tight end position, where only two players (George Kittle and Travis Kelce) are being drafted inside the first three rounds and none between the 24th and the 52nd pick (more than two rounds in separation, that is). If we also remove that third player (Zach Ertz) getting off the board "early", then we'd need to go all the way to the 60th pick to find the next tight end (Mark Andrews). Such is life at this position.

Here is what I'm looking for when trying to identify comps for both Kittle and Kelce at lower spots. If we build some sort of "combined profile" of the two, we can land at something close to

• At least 10 PPG per game (that would have been good for TE12 last year)
• Ideally, 200+ PPR on the season (only five TEs reached that mark over the full year)
• At least 6.5 targets per game (the top-nine TEs on PPG logged at least 6.3 targets)

Identifying TE Bargains with RD4+ ADP

After applying those filters and thresholds to the data from the 2019 season this is what I was left with.

Leaving both Kittle and Kelce aside, we have a pretty good group of tight ends all bunched around the same amount of PPR points in 2019 and going drafted between the 52nd and 70th spots this offseason. That is nothing to joke about, as we're discussing an 18-position, 1.5-round gap between Ertz and Darren Waller while their production was virtually the same (and even finished with Waller outperforming Ertz).

Although Austin Hooper and Evan Engram fall short and way short of the preferred 200-PPR mark, I deemed it interesting to include them because of their 2019 seasons and expectations for 2020. Let's address the third elephant in the room first.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 52.7)

Ertz is a seven-year veteran entering his 30-year-old season who has five seasons ranking inside the top-10 at the position and another two (his rookie and sophomore years) finishing as TE13 and TE22 on a super-limited usage. Ertz is as surefire a player at the position as any other out there. He's racked up 200+ PPR in three consecutive seasons and his "low" 2019 year aligned with a ravaged Philly offense at all positions, which made it impossible for him to find a single open chance.

Regardless, Ertz still finished with his second-best career-yardage mark at 916 receiving yards for six touchdowns. Once both Kelce and Kittle are gone it could happen that some owner panics and over-drafts Ertz way too early. Not that it would be too crazy of a move, but you know there are similar options going at cheaper prices.

For the other four players, I have decided to make a couple of two-person groups based on what they are done and what they should be expected to do is fairly set in stone and the other one more geared toward potential and upside.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP 59.9)

I have one stat that may scare you off Andrews. Do you know how many tight ends have scored 10 touchdowns since 2000? 27. Do you know how many pulled it off in back-to-back seasons? Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, and Julius Thomas. That's it. So, yes, expect some regression at least in that department from Andrews. I'm not saying Andrews is going to be Eric Ebron 2.0, but you can count on another 60 FP just like that in 2020.

Other than that, it's all good. His usage was bumped up, and he kept his numbers in line with what we should have expected. Lamar loves him, and Baltimore thrives. Perfectly good pick around the start of the fifth round.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 70.2)

Who gives me more pause is Waller, although it is also true that his ADP is the lowest of all considered here for some reason. Waller went from 17 targets in 2016 as a rookie, to not playing in 2017, to six targets in 2018, to an explosive 117-target, 90-reception, 1145-yard season last year in which he also scored three touchdowns for the Raiders. That was quite an insane jump.

Do I trust Waller going forward? I have to, because Las Vegas has no real veteran receivers worth passing the ball to other than Waller, but we have no data from Waller saying he's able to keep this level of production up. If you're "punting" on the position to an extent in this year's draft, then you might be able to make Waller your late TE1.

If Andrews and--most probably--Waller are off the board by the time you get determined to finally get your TE1, the options won't be too good to say the least. But even in that case (remember, if we go by Waller's ADP we might be already reaching the sixth round by then), you might still find a couple of interesting names still available.

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP 63)

Hooper was a beast for the Falcons last season and is now a Brown. Pros: Hooper has shown enough to consider him a great tight end in the NFL, he finished the year as the TE6 even missing three full games and played banged up in others, he had to endure missing time from Atlanta's QB1 Matt Ryan, and he was one of only six tight ends to score six touchdowns in 2019. Cons: he might turn into an injury-headache, the change of team might benefit him (surrounded by a super-offense) or might bury him (Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., and the RBs will demand a lot of opportunities),

Hooper had a career season in 2019 with his best-ever marks all across the board no matter the stat you look at. I don't fear the presence of David Njoku, but watch out for the rest of the Browns eating too much and leaving just the crumbs for Hooper making him fantasy-irrelevant.

Evan Engram, New York Giants (ADP 63.4)

At the time of this writing, I find it surprising that fantasy owners have not completely forgotten Engram, even after he missed half the year in 2019 and only played eight games. Engram was a beast during the games he could play in, averaged 13.7 PPG, and was on pace to finish the season with 218 PPR good for TE4 had he completed the full 16-game schedule.

Even playing just half the season, Engram finished 15th in yards, 14th in targets, 13th in receptions, and scored three touchdowns while fumbling no balls (only 15 players did so at the position). The Giants signed Levine Toilolo, but that's just a backup move. Engram will be ready for 2020 and he could be the ultimate sleeper at the position. Keep an eye on him.

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP 96.5)

Finally, and although he doesn't show up in the chart above, I guess everybody would like to read a word or two about mighty Gronk on his comeback season. He is far from a ninth rounder, that's for sure, and only the unknowns about his current status (paired with the COVID preseason-less 2020 year) is hurting his stock.

Gronkowski has never averaged fewer than 9.7 PPG (he did so as a rookie), and even though he missed games in his last three active seasons he still averaged 12.1, 16.2, and 10.1 PPG. He knows Brady, will share the field with a stacked group of receivers, and I'd say he's a lock to finish as a top-12 tight end barring a catastrophic injury. There aren't many fliers at the position as worthy as Gronk at this price.

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