MLB Betting Picks (7/24/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

Well, it wasn't exactly the opening night that we expected with the Yankees/Nationals game getting suspended after the fifth due to rain. Good for the Yankees, bad for our runline bet as most books are going to void that in an unfinished game. However, we got some relief in the back-end thanks to seven runs scored by the Dodgers after the seventh inning, hitting over the game over. The best part is we get even more baseball today! UPDATE: both games from Thursday are actually VOID. Even though the over bet was placed on Tuesday, Kershaw being scratched voided everything. Fresh start Friday!

• Thursday, July 23: 0-0
• 2020 Season Total: 0-0

With such odd circumstances entering this season, it's imperative to be smart with these plays off the get-go. Some players just started practicing a week ago after returning from a COVID diagnosis, while others just flat out might not be themselves following such a long layoff. I completely understand the excitement to be betting on baseball again, but be sure to not mismanage your bankroll early. As the season progresses, I'll likely have more plays, but for now I'm going to limit my plays to a couple a night.

Now onto the fun stuff! Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Finally, we're here!

Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (-190 )

O/U: 8

DET: Matthew Boyd, Cincinnati: Sonny Gray

Detroit was far and away the worst team in the league last year but they at least tried to make the team better in 2020. Signing C.J. Cron and Johnathan Schoop is a nice boost for an offense that averaged just 3.6 runs per game a year ago. Miguel Cabrera is still around but his days of casually slugging 30 homers seem to be behind him. Niko Goodrum and Christin Stewart are solid young guys who help round out the offense.

Boyd is easily the ace of the Tigers but he's also quite boom-or-bust, especially following a terrible second half of 2019 where he had a 5.51 ERA in 78.1 innings. However, the southpaw was slightly better away from Comerica Park last year, holding down a 4.55 ERA and .303 wOBA with 141 strikeouts over 99 road innings. He'll have the benefit of slightly better run support this season, but starting off against a potentially potent Reds lineup will give Boyd a nice opening day test.

The Reds seem to be the topic of a lot of talk as dark horses in the National League. Acquiring Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas over the offseason caught everyones attention, and this is an offense that already has Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto to a lesser extent. With a launch pad of a home ballpark, Cincy seems to understand that they need more production as hosts; they averaged just 4.3 rpg last year, so Castellanos and Moose should help in that category. Against southpaws in 2019, the Reds had a slash line of .251/.328/.402 so they'll certainly look to improve those numbers in 2020.

Sonny Gray had a bit of a resurgence after joining the Reds in 2019. He went 11-8 but his 175.1 innings were his most since 2015. A career-high 29 K% was combined with a 1.08 WHIP, and a .255 BABIP against. These numbers are eerily similar to his 2015 season in Oakland when he finished third in the Cy Young vote. He was a touch worse at home a year ago, but still housed a 3.05 ERA and .267 wOBA at Great American Ballpark.

It's tough to target hitters when both teams are throwing their best, but that's what I'm doing. Both teams improved their lineup in the offseason and they're playing in one of the best hitters parks in MLB. Pitchers are at such a disadvantage with this quick restart; there should be fireworks here.

Pick: Over 8 (-120, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (-136)

O/U: 8.5

AZ: Madison Bumgarner, SDP: Chris Paddack

The Diamondbacks made a huge splash signing 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner to a five-year deal this offseason. The southpaw had himself quite a career with the Giants, but it was time for a change of scenery. However, he stayed in the same division, so he's used to these opponents, especially the Padres. He's got a career 3.40 ERA and .214 BAA over 230.1 innings. More recently, he's 3-1 with 12 runs allowed in his L5 starts against the Padres, but he was a bit unlucky, giving up five home runs. His .725 WHIP and 35/8K K/BB over those 35 innings says he was actually quite dominant.

Arizona is another team that brought back a strong core but still made significant improvements to their lineup. Returning MVP candidate Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Christian Walker is a great start but then they went and traded for all-star Starling Marte and suddenly the Diamondbacks become contenders in the National League. These DBacks averaged just under five runs per game at home, but they didn't have the greatest success against RHP, owning a .242 AVG and .308 wOBA so facing a guy like Paddack will be an interesting test.

The Padres have a lot of work to do offensively after averaging just 4.2 rpg a year ago, including 3.8 rpg at home. It's not that there is a lack of talent, as guys like Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Fernando Tatis Jr. are still in town, but hitting just ,238 as a team will simply not be good enough. Adding Tommy Pham should help all-around but he's certainly not a game changer. Against southpaws in 2019, the team slashed .249/.330/.430 but we've already documented that Bumgarner has a been a small thorn in Padres side recently.

Chris Paddack is an exciting young arm and had a great rookie campaign in 2019. He finished 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA, 153 strikeouts, and just 31 walks. One downside was was the 1.47 HR/9 which was one of the highest in the league. However, he does get a boost here being at home where he went 6-3 with a 3.06 ERA and .235 wOBA last year. San Diego is one of the bigger ballparks in MLB which surely helps his home run problem.

Normally I'd say the Padres have a pitching advantage here, but a guy like Bumgarner is out to show that he still has it in him and getting the ball on opening day is common ground for him. Then give the Diamondbacks the big offensive advantage as well, even against an arm like Paddack.

Pick: Arizona ML +116 (Fanduel) 1 Unit

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