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Several teams have now finished more than half of their 2020 seasons, but the season is still relatively young with no teams having played more than 35 games. At the player level, no pitcher has thrown more than 52 innings yet this season, and the small sample of performance has resulted in some attractive DFS opportunities.
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Monday features a slate of 11 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #1
Marco Gonzales less than 3.5 strikeouts, Mike Trout more than 1.5 total bases.
Marco Gonzales less than 3.5 strikeouts:
Four strikeouts is a low total for a game, but Gonzales has failed to hit that mark in one-third of his starts so far this season and struck out three or fewer batters in 12 of his 34 starts last year. To make matters worse, the Angels represent a poor matchup for Gonzales. Los Angeles is a top-10 team by strikeout rate so far this season with a 22% mark, and match up well against Gonzales’s arsenal. Gonzales tends to rely on his cutter and changeup for strikeouts, but the Angels have been one of the better teams against those pitches this season with a combined 13% swinging-strike rate. As a result, it seems unlikely that Gonzales will manage to collect four or more strikeouts on Monday.
Mike Trout more than 1.5 total bases:
Trout has posted an xSLG above .600 in each of the past two seasons, and he’s posted a .643 mark so far this season. Further working in Trout’s favor is that he’s going up against a pitcher with a career .429 xSLG in Marco Gonzales, and although Trout has been slightly worse against southpaws than righties over his career, Gonzales is unlikely to neutralize the 29-year-old. Once Gonzales leaves the game, Trout will get to face a Seattle bullpen that’s allowed a .480 SLG to opposing hitters so far this season, so Trout should have little trouble collecting at least two total bases on Monday.
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More or Less Contest #3
Anthony Rendon more than 1.5 total bases, J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks.
Anthony Rendon more than 1.5 total bases:
The logic for Rendon is similar to that of Trout, except that Rendon is a slightly worse hitter. Even so, Rendon posted a .601 xSLG last season and has posted a .491 xSLG so far this season. More than half of Gonzales’s pitches are either fastballs or cutters, pitches against which Rendon owns a .520 combined career slugging percentage. Like Trout, Rendon will likely have an opportunity to face a struggling Seattle bullpen, further bolstering his chances of picking up at least two total bases.
J.P. Crawford less than 1.5 hits/walks:
Crawford owns a solid .347 OBP for the season, but Angels scheduled starter Jaime Barria is a poor matchup for the 25-year-old. Nearly half of Barria’s pitches last season were sliders, which Crawford owns a career .278 OBP against. If Barria gets knocked out of the game, then Crawford will bat against a Los Angeles bullpen that has allowed a .321 OBP so far this season. As a result, it seems unlikely that Crawford will reach base more than once on Monday.
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Main Games Star Shootout: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #2
Keston Hiura more than 1.5 total bases, Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks
Keston Hiura more than 1.5 total bases:
Hiura has underwhelmed so far this season with a .411 slugging percentage and a .405 xSLG, but Pirates starting pitcher Trevor Williams represents a strong matchup for the 24-year-old. Even in his down year, Hiura has posted a .465 SLG against fastballs and a .750 SLG against sliders, pitches which Williams has thrown at 44% and 27% rates so far this season, respectively. The Pittsburgh bullpen isn’t particularly intimidating either, with the unit posting a .420 SLG for the season so far. As a result, Hiura should manage to pick up at least two total bases on Monday.
Freddie Freeman more than 1.5 hits/walks:
Freeman has been characteristically excellent so far this season, taking a .306/.417/.559 slash line into Monday’s game. Red Sox probable starter Colten Brewer has been awful so far this season with a .316 xBA and a .577 xSLG, so Freeman should have little trouble reaching base against the 27-year-old. Brewer rarely lasts late into games though -- he hasn’t thrown more than five innings in a game this season -- so Freeman should see plenty of at-bats against a Boston bullpen that’s allowed opposing hitters to post a .356 OBP so far this season. Those pitchers should combine to give Freeman plenty of opportunities to reach base, making him worth betting on.
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