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With a strange set of circumstances surrounding this NFL season, there may be far more unexpected breakouts and stunning disappointments than ever before. This could be the golden age of bold predictions, as many surprising claims could become a reality. On the other hand, it could be unpredictable in the opposite direction, with the consensus holding true as often as it ever has. No one can know for certain, which makes the coming campaign the most intriguing that the NFL has ever seen.
One thing remains true though: there are plenty of players who will attempt to make a name for themselves, and likewise, there are plenty of players whose roles are highly sought after by their teammates. The competition will be as prevalent as ever, and with competition comes a chance for surprises.
Because this is my first year at RotoBaller, I have never made any bold predictions here before. This means that I have never gotten any wrong either, so if you want to hear from the undefeated expert, keep reading to see some daring projections!
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N'Keal Harry is a Top-25 WR in PPR
I am a big fan of N’Keal Harry. Considering he is projected to be New England’s top outside receiver with Julian Edelman working from the slot, it is downright shocking that his ADP is as low as it is. Going as just the WR64 in drafts, Harry is in line to provide massive value.
While Harry’s 2019 campaign was marred by injuries, his athleticism provides ample reason for optimism. Running a 4.53 40-yard dash at 228 pounds, he has the necessary size and strength to be an impact player in the NFL. Additionally, his six-foot-two frame and 38.5 inch vertical give him an 81st percentile catch radius, making him a real threat in the red zone. His 27 bench press reps, tied for the most among receivers at the 2019 combine, revealed his supreme strength at the receiver position.
N’Keal Harry was the man at Arizona State ?
Get ready for the Newton -> Harry highlight real!pic.twitter.com/J8OoUoe1Cd
— PFF NE Patriots (@PFF_Patriots) July 5, 2020
Clearly, Harry has the toolset to be highly productive. Yet, managers are selecting receivers with far more competition for targets, such as Curtis Samuel and Sammy Watkins, before him. Perhaps drafters are wary of a Cam Newton-led offense after his subpar, injury-riddled performances in recent years. It’s true that Newton threw for just 3,302 yards in 2017, his last season in which he was fully healthy. However, you’d better believe that Bill Belichick, who turned a sixth-round afterthought into a six-time Super Bowl champion, can make something of a former MVP.
N’Keal Harry already running routes with Cam Newton. ?pic.twitter.com/TCqlqQuOWN
— Pats Buzz (@PatsBuzz) July 9, 2020
There is little chance that Harry is surpassed by either Jakobi Meyers or Damiere Byrd in New England’s WR pecking order. Sitting behind just Edelman, who is now 34, Harry has a great opportunity to shock many fans this year. Keeping in mind his player comparison to Allen Robinson, the WR's potential is nothing to scoff at for sure.
Harry is just one year removed from being drafted in the first round, ahead of 2019 breakouts Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and D.K. Metcalf. Without being hampered with health issues, Harry will have the opportunity to prove that he deserved to be selected so highly. Many managers are looking to 2020 rookies like Justin Jefferson, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, and more while ignoring one of last year’s brightest prospects. Make sure that you are the one that puts an end to this trend.
Kareem Hunt Outscores Nick Chubb
This is a scenario that, while unlikely, needs to be talked about more. Chubb's ADP of 13 is much higher than Hunt's ADP of 61, and yet both are spectacular players. People seem to be forgetting that Hunt was an absolute beast with the Chiefs before his off-field conduct ended his tenure there. Hunt is more than capable of being a feature back, and with a new coach in Kevin Stefanski, there are no guarantees that he will play second-fiddle to Chubb.
After returning from suspension last season, Hunt played more snaps than Chubb in three out of eight games. Additionally, during this same stretch, Hunt scored 101.4 PPR points to Chubb's 103.8. Of course, as mentioned before, Freddie Kitchens and the old coaching staff are gone. Because of this, the above statistics may not carry over to this season. Nonetheless, Hunt has shown that he can produce at a similar level to Chubb already.
Nick Chubb's snap share dipped to 59.7% the final six weeks of the season (73.4% from weeks 1-11).
Kareem Hunt outsnapped Chubb with a rate of 61.5% during this timeframe. #FantasyFootball #Browns
Via: @cody_steyaert pic.twitter.com/8YKhhBRXTs
— YardsPer Fantasy (@YardsPer) August 4, 2020
Hunt's efficiency last year was also astounding, especially compared to Chubb's. In fact, Chubb's production premium ranked just 56th among running backs last season, suggesting that he left valuable fantasy points on the table. By contrast, Hunt's ranked fourth, showing that he still possesses the otherworldly talent that made him a fantasy star in Kansas City. Hunt's 1.15 fantasy points per opportunity ranked 17th at the RB position in 2019, and Chubb's 0.73 was just 82nd. Clearly, there is an opportunity for Hunt to outproduce Chubb.
Hunt is very likely to get more of the receiving duties than Chubb, considering Hunt had more receptions in eight games than Chubb had all season. This is unlikely to change even with a new coaching staff, as Hunt's 82.2 percent catch rate surpassed Chubb's 72.0 percent by a decent margin. These receiving opportunities will be especially valuable in PPR and could let Hunt outscore Chubb even if Chubb garners more of the team's carries.
None of this is to say that Chubb is a bad player. However, his ADP being so much higher than Hunt's is surprising. Hunt is certainly a better value than Chubb and could even outperform him in 2020.
CeeDee Lamb Finishes with 200+ Points in PPR
Dak Prescott ended last season as the QB2, throwing for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. While the Cowboys may remain skeptical of Prescott's abilities, fantasy managers should not. Dak is capable of some monster numbers, meaning that his receivers are as well.
CeeDee Lamb has entered the chat. As the 17th overall pick in this year's draft, Lamb must be salivating over the opportunities available to him. Even with fellow studs Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup in Dallas, there will be plenty of yards and touchdowns left over. After taking note of Lamb's downright absurd YAC talents, the only reasonable conclusion is that he will be a reliable fantasy option sooner rather than later.
CeeDee Lamb joins the Cowboys as a YAC monster! pic.twitter.com/bK18sk73jZ
— PFF (@PFF) April 30, 2020
Lamb's 21.4 yards per reception came in at the 96th percentile in college last season. In 2018, he had a catch rate of 82.3 percent. His player comparison is Jerry Rice! Lamb is not only falling much too far in fantasy drafts (ADP 93), but he never should have fallen to the Cowboys in the real draft either.
I claimed that Lamb would score 200+ points in PPR. 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns add up to exactly 200 PPR points. Are these predictions that outlandish for a first-round rookie in an offense that led the league in yards per play? It certainly doesn't seem like it. Even with Cooper and Gallup present, these numbers are attainable. If either one misses time, Lamb could explode for even more production. This upside is unmatched by anyone else going around his ADP. Do not let someone else snatch him away from you; make Lamb a priority in your draft.
Lamb has a very bright future in the NFL, but he has a very bright present as well.
Cam Newton is a Top-Five QB
I can only imagine how the NFL community would react if, under Bill Belichick's tutelage, Cam Newton returns to his dominant 2015 self. While that might be a little too far-fetched (although can we really count it out?), he could certainly come close enough to be a top-tier fantasy option. In 2017, his most recent fully-healthy season, Newton threw for 3,302 yards, ran for 754 more, and had 28 total touchdowns. That stat line would've been good enough for a QB6 finish last season. Assuming that Cam is free of his lingering injuries, such production is more than possible.
Cam arrived in Foxborough in late June after being a free agent for months. Once the Patriots signed him, Newton immediately began to work with his new teammates, including second-year wideout N'Keal Harry. I already mentioned above that Harry will be a breakout performer this season. Having such a weapon on the outside, along with Julian Edelman in the slot and James White coming out of the backfield, will only help Newton.
In addition to being named the Patriots' starting QB, as @globejimmcbride reported, Cam Newton was voted one of three Patriots' offensive captains (James White & David Andrews).
A testament to the immediate mark he's made as a leader in just over two months in New England.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 3, 2020
Newton has already won the respect of his new team, which is a great sign. Also promising is his 75.7 percent play-action completion rate and his 68.4 percent red-zone completion rate from 2018, which ranked first and fifth, respectively. These came even with his receivers dropping the eighth-most passes; his true completion rate was fifth in the league. That same season, Newton also ran for the fourth-most yards and fifth-most touchdowns among QBs despite missing two games due to injury and being hampered in others.
For Cam to finish in the top-five at his position, he would have to outscore the likes of Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson, and Josh Allen. Watson just lost his best target in DeAndre Hopkins, leaving him with two receivers who struggle to stay on the field. Murray and Allen both have potential, but they have not yet proven they can be among the league's elite quarterbacks while Newton has. Cam's ADP is currently 19th among QBs, yet he has so much more upside than those going before him. Jared Goff did not play well at times last season, and he just lost Todd Gurley and Brandin Cooks as weapons. Joe Burrow will likely be spending a fair amount of time handing off to Joe Mixon while he acclimates to the nature of the NFL. However, Goff and Burrow are still going before Newton in drafts.
Newton could be the biggest steal at the quarterback position this season. Don't be scared by his injury history; his upside will make drafting him worth it.
J.K. Dobbins is the Top Rookie RB
Yes, this includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Hear me out.
Dobbins piled up major stats at Ohio State, including a 2,000-yard, 23 touchdown explosion last season. But his counting stats aren't the only impressive part of his time in college. His 6.7 yards per carry in 2019 are at the 87th percentile; in 2017, he performed even better than that with a YPC of 7.2. He did all of this against some sturdy Big Ten defenses like Wisconsin and Penn State, so it's not like he racked up his stats against cupcake teams.
Now, Dobbins heads to Baltimore, the team that set the NFL record for rushing yards last season. The Ravens also had the second-most rushing yards per carry before contact, illustrating that the run blocking was superb. The incumbent starting RB, Mark Ingram, turns 31 in December. The Ravens clearly took Dobbins believing that he can take over for Ingram at some point; if that ends up being this season, lookout.
J.K. Dobbins had too many highlights to count.
So, we asked the @OhioStateFB great to rank his top 4⃣ plays. pic.twitter.com/rFwRLYUhxH
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) July 30, 2020
Edwards-Helaire, on the other hand, has a less rosy outlook than many would have you believe. While CEH landed in a high-octane Kansas City offense, the Chiefs ran the sixth-fewest times last season. With Patrick Mahomes still at the helm, why would they change that? Furthermore, Edwards-Helaire's athleticism may be overstated. While his burst is impressive, he ran just a 4.6 40-yard dash despite being just five-foot-seven. CEH also only broke out when LSU teammates Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase set records last season.
Although the Chiefs have a similarly threatening offense, this makes you wonder how much of Edwards-Helaire's success was due to defenses having too much to worry about rather than his own ability. CEH is going as highly in drafts as Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott did as rookies despite being a lesser athlete and prospect.
Other rookie running backs have significant hurdles to overcome as well. Jonathan Taylor has to deal with the presence of Marlon Mack, who has been sneakily productive over the last few seasons. D'Andre Swift has talent, but the Lions went 3-12-1 last season and aren't exactly playoff favorites this season, so the game script might be uncooperative. Additionally, Kerryon Johnson averaged 5.4 YPC in Detroit in 2018, so he won't lose his role without a fight.
Cam Akers is very intriguing, as he will compete with long-time backup Malcolm Brown and unproven Darrell Henderson for touches. Akers did average a lackluster 5.0 YPC at Florida State, but his offensive line was among the worst in the Power Five. Dobbins has more upside than Akers though, simply because the Ravens rushing offense is so efficient. A large role in Baltimore's backfield means much more than it does with the Rams.
Should Dobbins assume the lead role in Baltimore, he could be a league winner. There are just so many carries to go around with such efficient blocking that Dobbins would feast on defenses weekly. Make sure to nab him (ADP 76) before someone else does.
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