RADIO
Its Week 1 of the NFL season and not a moment too soon, amIrightoramIright? Naturally, between the time I started creating my lineups and writing this piece, quite a few things have changed. So like everything else in the DFS world, make sure you keep tuned in to all the injury reports and the like.
Also, for our purposes, we are going to define the term "stack" as a minimum of three options. So while I often stack my RB and DST together, I'm not going to discuss those options here. More often than not, my stacks include a QB and of his WRs plus either a second WR, his TE, or his pass-catching RB. Sometimes maybe all of them!
Anyway, when looking at stacks I like to review the different types of stacks--the chalky stack, the contrarian stack, the cheap stack, etc... Now that we are on the same page, here are your NFL Week 1 DFS Stacks.
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NFL Week 1: The Chalk Stack - Atlanta Falcons
Of all the games on the one o'clock slate, the Falcons/Seahawks game has the highest over/under (49 pts). The Legion of Boom has long since scattered as the secondary is a shadow of what is once was. The Seahawks were simply a middle of the road secondary last year and did little to improve that unit this off-season.
Matt Ryan, coming off a season of nearly 4500 passing yards, should absolutely soar this Sunday. He's at home on the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a West Coast team playing on the East Coast for a one o'clock game. He's not overpriced on either site which will make him a very popular pick. The weapons at his disposal are not going to drive his ownership down either.
They start with Julio Jones (DK $7700) who is one of the most expensive receivers to roster on Sunday.
The WR depth in the NFC South is UNMATCHED! No debate ?? pic.twitter.com/WSrMP715BR
— ?? Atlanta Falcons ?⚫ (@ATLFalconsUK) September 2, 2020
Of course, when you catch nearly 100 balls for almost 1400 yards like he did last season, your DFS salary in week 1 should be high. He will be joined by Calvin Ridley , who is far more affordable (DK $6100, ) and some like him to surpass Jones this year and that's not a knock on Jones. Ridley himself had almost 900 yards last year and scored even more touchdowns than Julio. Expect both of them to easily put up double-digit fantasy points this weekend.
Or if you are looking for an even cheaper and likely less-owned piece of the Atlanta puzzle try Hayden Hurst who is not even priced (DK $4300 as a TE1 this week. Expect that to change by next weekend as Matt Ryan loves to target his TEs as well. Austin Hooper had 97 targets last year but he has taken his talents to Cleveland. Hurst will now fill that role. Of course don't forget Todd Gurley (DK $6100, ) who has 154 catches over the last three years but is coming off a down year and is inexpensively priced.
NFL Week 1: The Contrarian Stack - New York Giants
Everyone loves to talk about the Pittsburgh D. They were likely one of the first five defenses off the board in your seasonal drafts. DraftKings have them as their most expensive defense and FanDuel has them second most costly. When you find out they are playing the Giants, it makes even more sense.
And the Giants were horrible last year. Unlike some of their NFC East rivals, they didn't add any flashy weapons to their offense. However, why are we so convinced that the Steelers are that good? The Steelers actually gave up the seventh-most fantasy points last year. Go look it up, I'll wait....surprised, right? Plus, the Giants were bad last year, but they were also banged up and inexperienced.
Daniel Jones now enters his second year and expectations are he will be far better this year after working with "QB whisperer" David Cutliffe this off-season. There are even further whispers that Jones has more velocity on his throws. Daniel Jones makes for both a great low-owned and cheap pivot ($6100, $7200) at QB. The other "inexperienced" piece is Darius Slayton, who also enters his second year and is priced quite comfortably ($4700, $5300). All Slayton did last year was catch eight touchdowns.
On the banged upside last year was Evan Engram ($5200, $6300) who only played eight games last year. I'm not going to promise you Engram will play 16 games this year, but I will promise you that he will be healthy for this week's game. Despite playing only eight games, Engram was still targeted 68 times last year or over eight targets per game. I can promise you that if he's targeted eight times this Sunday he will easily surpass his $5200 price tag on DK.
Golden Tate is currently questionable. So if you're looking for a fourth piece to this stack, consider the affordable Sterling Shepard ($5700, $5700) who also missed six games last season. Despite missing half a dozen games, Shepard still had 57 catches last year and should see his usual share of targets this Sunday.
NFL Week 1: The Sneaky Stack - Miami Dolphins
Yes, it's the circle of life...
But right now, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5300, $6400) is your week 1 starter for the Miami Dolphins. And many people think the New England Patriots are one of the better defenses in the league. That was last year, maybe. This year is a whole new year. And it's only a slight exaggeration to say that half the defense opted out. I don't think Fitzpatrick is going to look over that defense and be particularly fazed.
Yes, he has not had a ton of success against them. Last year for example in two games against New England he had just one touchdown and three picks. But again, this year's defense is not last year's defense. Fitzpatrick threw for over 3500 yards last year and had four 300+ yard passing games. Don't be surprised if he gets one this week.
Fitzpatrick is the cheapest starter on the slate. You will have plenty of room to fit in RB studs if you go with him as well as his top three targets. DeVante Parker ($6000, $6700) is coming off a career year of nine touchdowns and over 1200 receiving yards. Parker likely knows that some questioned his new four-year $40M deal last year. He'll try to build on that success this year. Of course, Preston Williams ($4500, $5300) knows all about opportunity, as he now finds himself as the de facto WR2 on this team. If he's healthy enough to start on Sunday, he should see plenty of action. And TE Mike Gisecki ($4500, $5400) is a rising star at TE and I expect him to introduce himself this weekend to those who don't know that.
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your Week 1 DFS Stacks!
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