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Here are some of the King’s important observations as we move forward after Week 1.
It is important not to overreact too much to opening week results. We help you deduce what could turn out to be for real and what may be illusions.
These insights can certainly help you make some key roster decisions as your team takes further shape for the weeks ahead. The aim of the feature is to help you stay level-headed after just one week of results.
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The King’s Key Fantasy Insights, Observations and Tips
-Running backs dominated the first two rounds of fantasy football drafts this season, yet there were no 100-yard rushers on the first Sunday of the NFL season. This likely won’t turn out to be a regular trend, but it is an indicator that the league is more pass-happy than ever. Many teams will attempt to emulate the Kansas City offensive attack as best they can, after defense did not win a championship last season. RBs who finished near the goal line on Sunday seemed to stand out even more in Week 1.
-There was internal buzz in Seattle about how we have not seen the best of Chris Carson as a pass-catcher yet. Carson caught six passes for 45 yards and two TDs at Atlanta. The screen pass to the RB was emphasized more than usual in the opener, and if Carson adds more frequent receptions, he will be a no-doubt RB1 with top-six potential when healthy.
-Cam Newton is back to being the fantasy QB he was in Carolina - he is a strong and fearless rushing threat with a shaky supporting cast. Rushing for 75 yards and two TDs in his Patriots debut shows he is already back on the fantasy QB1 radar, but he won’t be back in Top 5 territory unless playmakers other than Julian Edelman emerge. James White can help Newton produce even better if he develops a better rapport with him.
-A reminder that opportunity does not always lead to production: Boston Scott was the “hot” starting call of Week 1 with Miles Sanders out, yet he was mostly unproven in a potential featured role. Scott is a nice complementary piece to a main RB, but showed he cannot be counted on in any sort of lead role. He totaled 55 yards from scrimmage and was not much of a factor at all. The buzz on Scott was too loud, and I had warned he should not be used over a more established performer. Remember the Scott example next time you are considering a plug-in starter with not much of a track record over another option who has succeeded in the past.
-Some are shocked that Peyton Barber rushed for two short scores and “vultured” Antonio Gibson. The reality is, goal-line running is not easy. No one just “falls into the end zone” in the NFL. Be patient with Gibson, though. He will begin to grasp the finer points of goal-line running over time; he is a raw talent who needs to progress in that regard. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will also improve soon as a short-yardage artist. Neither one of these rookies experienced a true preseason. Their time as bigger threats near the scoring stripe will come. CEH, of course, will emerge more quickly for shorter TDs and may not share any touches in such situations when he does.
-Aaron Rodgers looked like his classic self in the season opener. But Matt LaFleur does like to run the ball, and it’s unlikely Green Bay will return to being a pass-first team. If the Packers go back to such a model, it leads to heavy defensive focus on Rodgers and exposes him to more frequent hits. Green Bay needs the Rodgers they saw on Sunday, who made crisp and pinpoint timely throws. But they must maintain offensive balance if they can. Rodgers is capable of leading the Packers deep into the playoffs again, yet it would be an optimum approach for him to be highly efficient rather than very busy. What makes sense for the Packers could lead to Rodgers being a solid, and occasionally outstanding Fantasy QB this year rather than him rejoining the elite.
-Don’t waste a waiver pickup on Marquez Valdes-Scantling. We have seen this act before, where he explodes and then disappears for awhile. For those fantasy footballers who remember Devery Henderson, it’s a very applicable comparison. Henderson would catch a deep pass or two every once in a while, would get added in many leagues, and then would be dropped during the quiet spell that lasted for a few weeks afterward.
-You have all heard the horrifying numbers so far: Austin Ekeler caught one pass for three yards. He was targeted just one time. Virgil Green was targeted twice as much as Ekeler. Tyrod Taylor is just not Philip Rivers. He does not seem interested in making the safe pass. The coaching staff will remind Taylor that Ekeler caught 92 passes last year. Yet it already seems highly unlikely that Ekeler will produce anywhere near the type of receiving totals he did last year. Don’t expect more than 75 catches at max. It’s too early to panic on his receiving output, but the QB change should erase talk of Ekeler as a Fantasy RB1 based on pass-catching volume. He can still be a good dual purpose RB2.
-I maintain that Dan Arnold will emerge as a back-end Fantasy TE1. He caught only two passes for 21 yards against San Francisco, but he should be a more significant contributor in Week 2 vs. Washington. The upcoming opponent allowed 11 catches for 119 yards and a TD to the Philadelphia TEs in the season opener.
-I have to admit that Ronald Jones II didn’t look bad against a tough Saints run defense. He rushed for 66 yards on 17 carries. Leonard Fournette was held to five yards on five carries. I expect he will perform better going forward. If Jones can continue to play at a respectable level this could possibly turn out to be a pure time share in a best case scenario for him.. But after one week, I am sticking with Fournette still emerging as the better Fantasy option as the goal-line runner and more dependable producer.
-Cam Akers ran very tentatively on Sunday night, and Malcolm Brown simply looked like the more confident and assured veteran. You will have to be more patient on Akers than you might have anticipated. He was not as decisive as expected, reminiscent of Miles Sanders early in his rookie year. Every player is different, yet it is clear the unusual preseason may have hindered Akers’ progress. Still, he should eventually emerge as the preferred RB for the Rams.
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