NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 8) - Targets and Avoids

Last week had the feel some underdogs would come through knocking remaining entrants of survivor pools in half. But that wasn't the case.

Underdogs went 8-5 against the spread with four outright upsets. The biggest was the Cardinals +3.5 beating the Seahawks. The Chargers gave many remaining entrants a scare when they fell behind in the third to the Jaguars  My survivor plays went 3-1 straight-up. Both my avoids, Bengals and Panthers, covered the spread.

Week 8 kicks off with the Falcons visiting the Panthers Thursday night. The Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans, and Washington are on bye.

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Survivor League Week 8

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 8; Chiefs -19.5 vs. Jets, Bucs -10.5 @ Giants, Eagles -7.5 vs. Cowboys, and Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 8

Chiefs -19.5 @ Jets

The result of this game isn't in question, rather only the point spread. 19.5 is a ton of points to lay but seeing how the Jets had four yards in the second half Sunday, is it really all that much? The Chiefs Defense is pretty good but what makes them really good is the turnovers they force. Patrick Mahomes and the offense jump out to early leads allowing their defense to take chances and going for the pick. The Chiefs are second-best in turnover differential, +13, nine of which are interceptions.

Chiefs 35 - Jets 9

Bucs -10.5 @ Giants

Tampa Bay looks like the best team in the NFC. Tom Brady had that beautiful throw at the end of the half. Rob Gronkowski looks like he's back. Their defense is clicking ranking first in opponent yards per play. And then you have the Giants who are 29th in yards per play, 31st in points per game with 17, and 31st in touchdowns in the red zone. Their defense ranks 12th in opponent yards per play, but they're 28th in getting off the field on third down's.

Bucs 27 - Giants 14

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Packers -6.5 vs. Vikings

I really struggled whether to put this in avoid section or as my last recommendation. Green Bay has dominated bad teams from this Minnesota team in Week 1, Lions, Falcons, and Texans. They beat the Saints and got crushed by the Bucs. So this game should seemingly be no problem for the Packers. But these rivals played in Week 1. Minnesota is fresh off a bye. And surprisingly, the Vikings are second in yards per play while Green Bay is fourth. Minnesota even ranks higher in most of the key stats I look at. This game will come down to how the Packers do on third down. They rank fourth in converting while the Vikings Defense is third in getting off the field. Mike Zimmer will have his defense ready to go this week and Kirk Cousins will be able to move the ball against an average defense.

Vikings 31 - Packers 30

Eagles -7.5 vs. Cowboys

The major question as I write this Tuesday, is who will be behind center for Dallas? Andy Dalton is in concussion protocol. James Madison rookie Ben DiNucci took over when Dalton went out and would presumably be the starter Sunday night in Philly. The Cowboys Defense is a mess; 24th in yards per play, 27th in opponent third down conversion percentage, and 16th in red zone touchdown percentage. Philly's defense is okay, their offense average. Carson Wentz seems to only play well when the teams absolutely needs to move the ball. They had that furious comeback two weeks ago against the Ravens where they scored 22 fourth quarter points. And then last week, two touchdowns in the last minutes.

For those reasons, I can't trust Philly, not even against an awful defense and rookie quarterback. It's also an NFC East game which always seem tight.

Eagles 23 - Cowboys 21

Titans -6 @ Bengals

Tennessee's offense should have no problem moving the ball against Cincy but can their defense stop Joe Burrow? The Titans Defense ranks 23rd in yards per play, dead last in opponent third down conversion percentage, and 31st in touchdowns in the red zone. They've given up 63 points the last two weeks. While Cincy does rank 27th in yards per play, Burrow is going to throw and throw. They'll have their chances against a porous Titans defense.

Bengals 34 - Titans 30

 

Best Bets for Week 8

• Dolphins +4 vs. Rams - L.A. is coming is coming east for an early 1 p.m. game after a Monday night game. They have no tape on Tua Tagovailoa to prepare for him.
• Bears +4 vs. Saints - I like taking teams off embarrassing losses on national television. You'd think Matt Nagy will open up the offense to some degree. Let's also see Drew Brees' arm in chilly and windy Chicago weather.
• Vikings +6.5 @ Packers

 

Running Totals

• Last week: 2-1
• 2020 season total: 11-10
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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