Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Statistics - Red Zone Targets (TE)

When you need a high-upside streamer at tight end, the decision doesn't always come down to target share or projected yardage. You're looking for a big play, preferably a touchdown to make your fantasy day. The prudent move is to find a player that is a relatively big part of the team's offense near the goal-line or a big body who could haul in a score.

Analysts often point to red-zone receiving numbers to prove a player's upside. After all, if they get targets and receptions close to the end zone, they're more likely to score. Sound logic... except when it isn't.

Not all advanced metrics are meaningful and some can be downright deceptive. My goal is to point out potential outliers that could steer you wrong when making key lineup decisions for Week 9 and beyond.

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Red Zone Targets - TE

For this exercise, we'll break down red-zone targets into sub-categories and also look at team share. The leaders at tight end aren't too surprising, as Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce comprise the top three TEs in RZ Tgt%. The next couple of names, Logan Thomas and Mike Gesicki, are more interesting. Some are downright dumbfounding.

This isn't to say that red-zone targets are completely meaningless. As always, this is a statistic that shouldn't be used as a standalone metric to gauge value or even scoring potential.

Which tight ends have legitimate fantasy upside based on how they are used as receivers and which stats are merely mirages? Let's find out.

 

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

5 Red-Zone Targets (16th among TE), 17.8% Team Share

With Courtland Sutton out for the year, this was primed to be a second-year breakout for Fant. He was solid in Weeks 1-4 before getting injured, catching at least four passes in each game. His usage has been even higher the past two games since returning, as he's seen seven and nine targets in Week 7 and 8. The problem for fantasy purposes is that he hasn't scored since Week 2, while backup Albert Okwuegbunam found the end zone in the comeback win over the Chargers. Is Fant bound to be forgotten in the all-important red zone?

While Okwuegbunam is the slightly bigger target and does have a history of catching passes from Drew Lock in college, this isn't a reason to worry. A-OK had been a non-factor until Fant's injury and his TD last week was his only catch and target. Fant's team RZ target share isn't high relative to other tight ends but this is misleading because it's actually the highest on his team. The Broncos are spreading the ball around to multiple receivers in the red area, with nobody reaching the 20% threshold and nine different players seeing at least two targets there.

Although it would be great to see Fant get more scoring opportunities, he may be the rare tight end that isn't heavily dependent on touchdowns for fantasy value. He is out there to run routes and catch the ball, so receptions and yards should keep piling up as long as he and Lock can stay on the field together for a full game, which has happened just three times this season. Fant's overall target share was in the top-five among tight ends in Week 8 and he ran a route on three-fourths of all pass plays.

Routes and targets alone don't formulate fantasy points, but it's the best path to getting there than red-zone looks alone. Fant should be one of the main targets in Denver through the second half and remains a fantasy TE1. A matchup with Atlanta in Week 9 could make for an explosive performance.

 

Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons

4 Red-Zone Targets (19th among TE), 9.5% Team Share

Hurst has as many red-zone targets as Dawson Knox and Kaden Smith. He also has as many as George Kittle and Hunter Henry. If that doesn't show the relative uselessness of the stat, how about this? Hurst has three touchdowns this year but only one has come from inside the 35-yard line.

This is another example of a player that is able to score beyond the red zone and isn't tied to it for value. Julio Jones is constantly ripped by the fantasy community for his lack of touchdowns relative to his massive target share. That's somewhat unfair but then again, he only has two TD this season while Hurst has three and Calvin Ridley has six.

Like Fant, Hurst was drafted to be a pass-catcher not a blocker. He was among the leaders in routes run at TE last week and continues to rank top-10 in that category all season. The Falcons might prefer to run the ball near the red zone but they are going to always be among the top passing teams in the league; they currently sit at fourth with 317 total pass attempts. Hurst won't reach double-digit scores but he could still come away with a top-10 TE fantasy finish, especially as George Kittle and Zach Ertz fall off the radar due to injuries. It's just too bad he doesn't get to face his own defense.

 

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

2 Red-Zone Targets (45th among TE), 7.4% Team Share

Hooper is off for Week 9 and coming off an emergency appendectomy so this outlook pertains to his rest-of-season outlook. It would have been nice to see David Njoku get traded but that ultimately didn't happen. It may not matter much, as he's been phased out of the offense and was lightly used even when Hooper was out.

Rookie Harrison Bryant is a bigger threat to Hooper's scoring potential but he's only gotten three red-zone targets this year. It just so happens that all three have gone for touchdowns. Hooper has just one score so far but we have to view his ROS potential differently than his first-half output. Hooper was starting to heat up with 23 total targets and five receptions in each game between Week 4-6. Odell Beckham is out for the season and Jarvis Landry is playing through an injured rib, so Hooper will continue to be a top target for the team.

I can't promise more touchdowns because once Nick Chubb returns, the team will run the ball as much as possible near the goal-line. Hooper's floor in PPR leagues isn't tied to touchdowns, however, so consider him a trade target this weekend if you're looking to replace Kittle for the playoff stretch.

 

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

8 Red-Zone Targets (8th among TE), 28.5% Team Share

With almost no experienced wide receivers on the roster, Gesicki is in a great situation for a tight end in fantasy. Things look even better now that the Fins traded away Isaiah Ford. Gesicki is an athletic freak and should be piling up numbers like George Kittle (when healthy). Aside from a monstrous Week 2 versus Buffalo and a 91-yard effort in the unexpected Week 5 shellacking of San Francisco, Gesicki has been unplayable the rest of the season. What gives?

Gesicki is being targeted in the red zone heavily with five targets inside the 10, tied for fourth-most. The problem is that those targets aren't connecting. RotoWire accounts for eight targets in the red zone but per NFLSavant, he's caught three of 11 RZ targets, resulting in his only two touchdowns this year.

The intent has been there but Gesicki hasn't shown the ability to separate from defenders in the end zone. He now has competition as well; Adam Shaheen has seen three targets inside the five-yard line and has cashed in for two scores.

The other issue is that the Dolphins have run the fourth-fewest pass plays in the league through Week 8. It's not that they are skewing run-heavy either - they just aren't running many offensive plays, period. This will continue to be a conservative offense with a rookie QB at the helm, a hodgepodge of running backs in the mix, and a gameplan that focuses on slowing things down. They are currently third-slowest in pace of play at 29.24 seconds per play and that includes six games with a shaky defense and gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Expect things to crawl to a snail's pace the rest of the season.

 

Drew Sample, Cincinnati Bengals

9 Red-Zone Targets (4th among TE), 19.5% Team Share

Remember that one week when it looked like Sample was going to be this year's Darren Waller? His nine-target, seven-reception game back in Week 2 seems like ages ago. Although Joe Burrow leads the league in pass attempts after the first half of the season, he's keeping all three of his main wide receivers involved and has thrown only one target to Sample on four occasions. In fact, he's logged zero receptions in two of the last three weeks.

When Sample is getting targeted, it's usually in the red zone. More than one-third of his target total on the year (nine) have come inside the 20 and three have been inside the 10. This stat can practically be thrown out the window once we see the zero by his TD total. The Bengals, despite their record, have many skilled players who can convert in the red area, including leading receiver Tyler Boyd and a pair of 6'4" receivers in Tee Higgins and A.J. Green. Plus, as mentioned last week in regard to Joe Burrow, Cincinnati has been one of the worst teams as far as converting touchdowns in the red zone. Maybe it would help if they stopped throwing to Sample so much...

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