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We have made it to one of the best football days of the NFL season, Thanksgiving Day. We have a fun-filled day of food, family, and football on tap. There are three games with the Lions hosting the Texans, the Cowboys hosting the Football Team, and the Steelers hosting the Ravens. At this time, we have only one game total over 50 points, and that is the Texans/Lions game. Lastly, keep an eye on the news as the Ravens are battling some COVID issues, and that game is sadly in jeopardy.
When looking at the Thanksgiving Day slate, most will flock to the Texans passing game, and I don't blame them, but there will be some pivots. This article will be mixing cash and GPP values, giving pivots from some of the major chalk. With that said, not all chalk is bad as Deshaun Watson should be insanely popular, but in cash you eat the chalk, wherein GPP you can pivot to Ben Roethlisberger. There are scenarios all over the slate to make pivots, making three-game slates like this one fun. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter (@bdentrek).
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for the Thanksgiving Day slate of the 2020 NFL season.
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Thanksgiving Day Slate Quarterback Value Plays
Matthew Stafford, DET vs HOU | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200
Stafford has been banged up all season and is coming off an absolute dud this past week versus the Panthers. He has been limited in practice this week with his injured thumb but should be good to go on Thursday. He will be in another strong matchup versus a Texans Defense that ranks 16 in the NFL versus opposing quarterbacks over the last four games. They are allowing 1.5 passing touchdowns, 271 passing yards, and over 20 fantasy points per week. Stafford also loves playing on Thanksgiving as he is averaging over 20 fantasy points on Turkey Day since 2012. He makes for a nice GPP pivot in the highest projected total of the day against a very suspect Texans defense.
Alex Smith, WAS at DAL | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,700
When looking at cash games on this slate, you have to plug in Watson as your QB, basically. He will be the chalk of chalk, and for cash games, he is the play as he is the QB4 in fantasy production since Week 5. If you are looking to save in cash for some reason, then your pivot is Alex Smith. Smith only attempted 25 passes last week, but that was large to WFT being in complete control late in the game and a heavy run attack in play. The previous two weeks, Smith had at least 32 pass attempts and 325 yards, something that he may get closer to this week in a matchup versus a Cowboys Defense that is ok versus the run but 21 versus the passing game over the last four weeks. They are allowing 2.5 passing touchdowns per game and over 20 fantasy points over that stretch.
Thanksgiving Day Slate Running Back Value Plays
J.D. McKissic, WAS at DAL | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,600
When looking at lineup builds this week, the running back choices will be pretty clear cut, leaving McKissic a nice GPP pivot. He is coming off a game where he only had three catches on four targets, after back to back weeks of seven or more catches and 14 or more targets. This week with a suspect Cowboys passing defense, could lead to more dump-offs going McKissic's way. If you want to pivot off the D'Andre Swift, Ezekiel Elliot, and possibly teammate Antonio Gibson chalk, then McKissic is your guy.
Gus Edwards, BAL at PIT | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,200
The Gus Bus is leaving the shop and ready to go this week versus the Steelers. With teammates J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram being placed on the COVID IL, it should be the Gus Edwards show on Thursday night. It has been an up and down season for Edwards in a crowded Ravens backfield, but when giving a decent workload, he has produced. In his last two games, where Edwards received at least 10 carries, he finished with double-digit fantasy points. One of those games was in Week 8 versus the Steelers, where they had 16 carries for 87 yards. Over the last four games, the Steelers Defense ranks 11 versus running backs, allowing over 120 rushing yards per game. It is a tough matchup, but one that can be taken advantage of, and at the bare minimum prices, it will be tough to ignore Edwards this week, especially in cash games.
UPDATE: The Steelers-Ravens game has been moved to Sunday.
Tony Pollard, DAL vs WAS | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,100
Pollard is strictly your GPP dart on this three-game slate. Sometimes you have to get really different in one or two roster spots, and Pollard fits that mold in a big way. Pollard had eight or more touches in each game since Week 5 before last week's six tough games, but he managed a massive touchdown run last week. Pollard has been getting a lot of use backing up Zeke and has that big play upside he showcased last week. The WFT run defense has been strong, but a big play or two from Pollard at the bare minimum could be huge for a GPP lineup on a three-game slate. He's quite the risk but could also be quite the reward.
Thanksgiving Day Slate Wide Receiver Value Plays
Marvin Hall, DET vs HOU | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100
The Lions receiving core has been the walking wounded for some time with Kenny Golladay and others banged up. You can pivot to Hall's value with everyone looking to Marvin Jones Jr. as a valuable asset in the Lions' passing attack. He has three or more targets in four straight games with nearly five fantasy points per game and two of the four games in double-digit fantasy production. The Lions will also be facing a Texans defense that ranks 23 versus wide receivers over the last four games allowing nearly 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game. He will continue to be on the field and involved in the passing game, making him a nice GPP value this week with a bit of cash upside.
Brandin Cooks, HOU at DET | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500
This week's most values will be straight price tag punts, but Cooks can not be ignored as he is once again priced too low for his overall production and matchup. Cooks is coming into Thursday's matchup as one of Watson's favorite targets, receiving five or more targets in each game since Week 5. He has also scored nearly 10 or more fantasy points in each game, giving him a solid cash game floor. The Texans have an implied team total of nearly 28 and are only three-point favorites, making for a potential close back and forth game. Cooks should be heavily involved once again, on his way to another double-digit fantasy day and strong cash gameplay.
Michael Gallup, DAL vs WAS | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,500
Gallup has been a tilting player to the roster each week, no denying that, but on a three-game slate where you may be looking for a GPP value pivot, he fits the mold. Over the last three weeks, he has been targeted at least seven times but has only hauled in two, three, and seven catches. Over the last four games, Gallup is receiving over 25% of the team's air yards and nearly 23% of its target share. The targets alone make him intriguing, and if you want to factor that in with his air yards, he screams GPP upside. Everyone will target Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Schultz, leaving Gallup severely low rostered.
Steven Sims Jr./Cam Sims, WAS at DAL | DK: $3,200/$3,300, FD: $4,600/$4,800
The Football Team has two nice value options in Steven and Cam Sims. Both come with great price tags, and both have been productive in fantasy games. Steven has three or more targets back in back games, and Cam has four or more targets in two of the last three games. Cam may have the higher upside as he is on the field more and is receiving 18.5% of the team's air yards and 9.5% of the team's target share over the last three games, where Steven is only receiving 7.6% of the air yards, but 8.6% target share and a nice 12.5% of the red zone looks. Cam may have the bigger play upside, where Sims may have the red-zone looks. Both are in play for cash and GPP's as very low rostered players.
Thanksgiving Day Slate Tight End Value Plays
Logan Thomas, WAS at DAL | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,000
Yep, he did it again last week. Another week with five more targets but only two catches and less than three fantasy points. Thomas's issue is neither site wants to raise his price and thus makes him a value with that target share each week. He has nearly 22% of the air team's air yards, nearly 15% target share, and 12.5% of the red-zone targets. Those are solid numbers for a value tight end. This week he faces a Cowboys defense that has been stronger versus the tight end over the last four weeks but still has some holes. He is a value, but I may pivot to the player below or my favorite tight end this week, Eric Ebron, instead.
Dalton Schultz, DAL vs WAS | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,300
Schultz head into Turkey Day on quite a run for the Cowboys. He has six or more targets over the last three games, good for almost 20% of the team's targets. Even better than all the target love is how he is looked at in the red zone, receiving nearly 30% of the team's red-zone targets. That is huge, especially for the tight end position. He will be going up against the 21 ranked defense versus tight ends on the season, allowing nearly five receptions and well over double-digit fantasy points per week. Schultz makes for nice cash gameplay as well as a piece of a Cowboys stack.
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