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Hi, y'all! Eleven weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 12 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 12 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 12 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller is in an absolute smash spot against a Falcons Defense allowing 16.7 PPR points per game (32nd) to opposing tight ends. The Falcons are a pass-funnel defense, so we could see an uptick in passing volume for the Raiders this week, which bodes well for Waller. He's a Top-2 tight end this week.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
There's a chance that Julio Jones is out for this game, which would put Ridley in line for WR1 volume. PFF projects Ridley to be matched up with Trayvon Mullen (60.7 Coverage Grade). The Raiders have allowed 38.4 PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers (19th). While there's risk that the Falcons offense continues to struggle without Julio, even if they do, we can expect Ryan to funnel targets to Ridley. Fire him up as a WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
In two games without Julio, Ryan has averaged 11.5 points per game, compared to 23.34 points per game when Julio played. While that's a small sample size, it's still enough to make Ryan a quarterback to avoid because of the depth of the position. The Raiders have rank 23rd in points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but I can't trust Ryan without Julio.
Other Matchups:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr has a great matchup against a Falcons defense that has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The reason why I don't love him this week is because: 1) the Raiders love to run the football, Carr only averages 31.4 pass attempts per game; 2) this might not be as much of a shootout as it looks because of the Falcons struggles on offense without Julio. Carr is still in play as a streamer, but I'd consider looking at Daniel Jones instead.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs takes on a pass-funnel Falcons defense that ranks 9th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing running backs. Jacobs has been used sparingly in the passing game, totaling only six targets in his last four games. While he might not have an efficient game, the volume keeps him in play as a low-end RB1 with touchdown upside in a game where the Raiders should be able to move the ball through the air.
Nelson Agholor (WR, LV)
Agholor has four touchdowns in his last seven games, but he's mixed in two duds in that span (1 REC, 8 YDS combined). He's clearly established himself as the top option at wide receiver for the Raiders, but it's hard to rely on a player who has four targets or fewer in eight of his 10 games. Consider Agholor an upside WR4 due to the strong matchup.
Brian Hill (RB, ATL)
With Todd Gurley officially ruled out, Hill immediately becomes an upside FLEX against a Raiders team that has really struggled in run defense, ranking 32nd in run DVOA and allowing 22.4 PPR points per game (29th). At the same time, Hill really disappointed last season when given a full workload (35 carries for 91 yards in two starts). Hill is worth starting at FLEX, but we need to temper our expectations.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst should see an uptick in targets if Julio were to miss this game. He takes on a Raiders defense that ranks 13th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, but after last week's goose egg, we could see the Falcons try to get him more involved in the offense. Consider Hurst a Top-8 option at tight end this week.
Player Notes:
Julio Jones (WR, ATL): Game-time decision, if he plays, everyone in ATL gets a boost except Ridley
UPDATE: Julio Jones has officially been ruled out this week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert is putting together the best rookie season for a quarterback in the history of fantasy football. He's put up at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his nine games this year. Herbert takes on a Bills Defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, including 7.58 yards per attempt (23rd). This game has the makings of a shootout, so we need to fire up Herbert as an elite QB1.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen has been a target monster with Herbert under center, totaling 62 targets in his last five games. He caught 16-of-19 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown last week against the Jets. While the Bills have allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers, Allen is on too much of a roll right now and he's an elite WR1 each and every week with the way that Herbert is playing.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
The Bills have really struggled against tight ends, allowing the second-most PPR points per game to the position this year. In a projected shootout with a 53-point total, we could see Henry find the endzone for the third consecutive week. Given the lack of production at tight end, that makes Henry a Top-5 option.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen comes off the bye to take on a Chargers Defense that ranks 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Allen has rediscovered his early-season form in the last two weeks, with QB4 and QB2 finishes in his last two games. Expect him to target Stefon Diggs early and often in this projected shootout.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs has evolved into an alpha WR1 with the Bills - he's caught 19-of-22 targets for 211 yards and a touchdown in the last two weeks. While the Chargers have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers, Diggs has too much volume not to love him in this projected shootout. With John Brown likely out for this game and an ineffective run game, expect Diggs to be peppered with targets in this one.
Matchups We Hate:
Bills RBs
It's really tough to start Zack Moss or Devin Singletary with the Bills pass-heavy offense and Josh Allen vulturing goal-line carries. While Moss has started to separate from Singletary, we can't consider him anything more than a FLEX play this week. The Chargers rank 27th in run DVOA, so the matchup is there, but I can't trust this backfield until there is a change in usage.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
While Beasley should see an uptick in volume in John Brown's absence, the Chargers will be getting back stud slot cornerback Chris Harris for this game. It's going to be tough sledding for Beasley in this one, so I would look elsewhere this week. Consider Beasley a WR4 this week.
Other Matchups:
Kalen Ballage (RB, LAC)
Ballage continues to get the volume, averaging 21 touches in the last three games, so we need to fire him up as a volume-based RB2. The Bills rank 26th in run DVOA, so this is an exploitable matchup for Ballage. The only reason why he's not in the love section this week is because he's been inefficient with his touches - 3.69 YPC on 49 carries in the last three games.
UPDATE: Kalen Ballage has officially been rule out this week.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
The Bills have been stingy against wide receivers this year, so it's hard to trust two Chargers wide receivers this week. Williams is a boom-or-bust WR3/4 against this Bills defense. I expect the targets to continue to be funneled towards Allen and Henry, so it's hard to rely on Williams here.
Player Notes:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC): Ekeler returned to practice. If he plays, consider him an upside RB2.
UPDATE: Austin Ekeler was officially activated from IR on Saturday afternoon.
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones takes on a Bengals Defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA, giving up 23.4 points per game (T-20th) to opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 7, Jones is ranked as QB14, averaging 50.8 rushing yards per game during that span. Jones came into the season as a popular sleeper pick at QB and he's starting to get things rolling. He's firmly on the streaming radar for this game.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram has a great matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to tight ends. He's coming off a dud against the Eagles, where he caught 2-of-3 targets for 15 yards, but prior to that, he had 20 targets in his previous two games. With the lack of production at tight end, Engram remains one of the better options at the position, especially in a strong matchup like this one.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games. During that span, he ranks as RB9 in PPR points per game. Gallman has a good matchup here against a Bengals Defense allowing 23.1 PPR points per game to running backs (T-15th) and ranks 23rd in run DVOA. This projects as a positive game-script with Brandon Allen under center for Cincinnati, so Gallman should have a good opportunity to continue his touchdown streak.
Matchups We Hate:
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Since Shepard returned in Week 7, Slayton has averaged 7.8 PPR points per game, ranking as WR83 during that span. Slayton's production has been sporadic, with three games with four targets or less in his last five. While this is a strong matchup, it's hard to trust him with the lack of volume.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Higgins gets a significant downgrade in fantasy value with Allen replacing the injured Joe Burrow at quarterback. We can expect the Bengals' deficiencies on the O-line to be even more exposed with Allen, making it difficult to connect on shots downfield to Higgins. While PFF projects him to avoid James Bradberry, it's hard to trust the rookie with Allen at the helm.
Other Matchups:
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard gets a good matchup against a Bengals defense allowing 39.9 PPR points per game to wide receivers (24th). PFF projects him to be matched up with LeShaun Sims (43.9 Coverage Grade). Since returning to the lineup in Week 7, Shepard ranks as WR30 in PPR points per game, putting him firmly on the WR3 radar. During that span, he's tied for the team lead with a 24.62% target share.
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
The Giants have allowed the eight-most PPR points per game to running backs, but Bernard has a low ceiling with Allen at quarterback. The hope is that Allen will pepper Bernard with check-downs as he tries to deal with a Giants pass-rush that has racked up five sacks in the last two games.
UPDATE: Giovani Bernard (concussion) is expected to play this week.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Boyd shouldn't be affected by the quarterback downgrade as much as Higgins, but we also need to lower the ceiling here. Boyd will also get to avoid James Bradberry in the slot. We can consider Boyd as a safer WR3 because of his lower average depth of target. On a positive note, at least Ryan Finley won't be starting.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Matchups We Love:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman is quickly emerging as the top option on the perimeter for the Colts, catching 14-of-18 targets for 233 yards and a touchdown in the last three games. Titans cornerback Adoree Jackson's status is in question, which bodes well for Pittman, who PFF projects to be covered by Malcolm Butler (68.8 Coverage Grade). The Titans are allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers, so consider Pittman an upside WR3 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Smith has become a touchdown-dependent tight end, totaling only 22 targets in his last six games. The Colts are also very tough against tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position. The last time these two teams met, Smith caught 2-of-6 targets for 14 yards. His fantasy line was saved by a goal-line carry that went for a touchdown.
Other Matchups:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
The Colts Defense just allowed Aaron Rodgers to complete 71% of his passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns. They'll be without stud interior lineman DeForest Buckner, who is a major part of their pass rush, which is good news for Tannehill. The Colts are allowing the fourth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks, but I don't hate the matchup for Tannehill here.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
The Colts are allowing only 20 PPR points per game (3rd) and 3.43 YPC (T-2nd) to opposing running backs. With that said, Henry has had success against them recently, rushing for 334 yards on 60 carries (5.57 YPC) in his last three games. The Colts defense is weakened by the loss of Buckner, so we can fire up Henry as an elite RB1 like we do each and every week.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
The last time these two teams met, Brown put up only one reception for 21 yards, including a dropped pass that would have likely gone for a long touchdown. Brown's playmaking ability keeps him in your lineup as an every-week upside WR2 and we definitely need to bump him up with Buckner's absence. I don't love the matchup, but it's not steering me clear of Brown this week.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Davis has been surprisingly consistent this season, putting up at least 60 yards or a touchdown in seven of eight games. PFF projects him to be lined up with Rock Ya-Sin (44.9 Coverage Grade), so this is an exploitable matchup for Davis. We'll leave him in the lukewarm section because of the Colts success vs. receivers (T-7th fewest PPR points per game), but you can still use Davis as a WR3.
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Rivers has been limited by a toe injury this week, or else he would be in the love section, facing off against a Titans Defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA. Rivers is still on the streaming radar, but I don't think this will be an upside week for him. Perhaps the Colts will opt to lean on the running game to take the load off Rivers this week.
Colts RBs (RB, IND)
Nyheim Hines goes up against a Titans defense allowing ninth-most PPR points per game to running backs, so consider him an upside FLEX this week. Jordan Wilkins will be back in the fold with Jonathan Taylor (COVID-19) officially ruled out for this game. Expect Wilkins to get some short-yardage work. He's a touchdown-dependent, desperation FLEX this week.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are in smash spots against a Jaguars Defense allowing 23.8 rush attempts per game (27th), 26.9 PPR points per game (27th), and 62 receptions to running backs (T-26th). This a favorable game script with the Browns favored by seven points, facing Mike Glennon at quarterback, who has no business on an NFL roster, nevermind football field. The Browns are a run-heavy offense and we could see both Chubb and Hunt turn in RB1 finishes, similar to their Week 2 win against the Bengals.
Matchups We Hate:
Jaguars WRs
Laviska Shenault and Keelan Cole are in line for an uptick in targets, but Glennon and the Jags will likely struggle to move the ball. While the matchup is good with cornerback Denzel Ward and pass-rusher Myles Garrett on the shelf, it's too hard to trust these receivers with such a messy situation at quarterback. We also have to be concerned about lack of volume, since I expect the Browns to maintain possession by running the football effectively. I'd prefer Shenault as a desperation FLEX and Cole is more of a WR5.
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield is in a great spot against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed 26.8 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The issue here is volume and game script - Mayfield is averaging only 26.5 pass attempts per game. The Browns should be able to control this game, resulting in fewer pass attempts for Mayfield. There's better streamers on the board this week.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry has limited upside in this run-heavy offense, especially in games where the Browns are favored. The Jaguars are allowing eighth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers, so the matchup is good, but I can't recommend him in a likely low-scoring game with limited volume. He's a WR4 this week.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Like every Browns pass-catcher, Hooper will likely have to deal with limited volume in this game. The Jaguars are tied for 25th in PPR points per game to tight ends, so there's definitely opportunity here, but Hooper only has seven targets in two games since returning from injury. Consider him on the TE1/2 fringe this week.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson continues to see RB1 usage, making him a matchup-proof starter - we just need to temper expectations with Glennon at quarterback. There's a chance that Glennon peppers Robinson with check-downs if the Jaguars are in catch-up mode. Myles Garrett's absence also bodes well for Robinson's outlook, so consider him a volume-based, low-end RB1 this week.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has really come alive lately, catching 11-of-18 targets for 223 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. He gets a juicy matchup against a Vikings Defense allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers. Moore has the highest average depth of target on the team, so he has the most upside on the perimeter. PFF projects Moore to be matched up with Kris Boyd (52.1 Coverage Grade).
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson has seen 44 targets in his last five games, but he hasn't scored a touchdown since the first week of the season. This could be the week that we see some positive regression and Anderson finds the endzone. PFF projects him to be matched up with Chris Jones (48.6 Coverage Grade). Consider Anderson a WR2/3 in this strong matchup.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook is seeing a massive workload, carrying the ball 109 times in his last four games (27.25 per game). He takes on a Panthers Defense allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. The Panthers have given up 4.76 YPC (29th) and rank 22nd in run DVOA. Cook is the overall RB1 this week.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson is in a great spot against a Panthers defense that has struggled against opposing WR1s. Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones each had big games against the Panthers. If Adam Thielen is forced to miss this game, Jefferson would see an uptick in targets and should be considered a WR1.
UPDATE: Adam Thielen is not expected to play this week.
Other Matchups:
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR)
Bridgewater is projected to return to the lineup just in time to face the team that drafted him. The Vikings rank 22nd in points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so this is a good matchup. The issue here is that Bridgewater is still banged up with a knee injury, so we need to bake in some risk to his ranking this week. Consider Teddy B a lukewarm streaming option.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Since Week 6, Davis has 65 carries for 229 yards (3.25 YPC). He has also caught 19-of-23 targets during that span after totaling 33 targets and 30 receptions in his previous four games. We still need to use him as a volume-based RB2 against a Vikings defense that ranks 19th in PPR points per game, but we need to temper your expectations.
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)
Since Week 8, Samuel is ranked as WR10 in PPR points per game. He's coming off a strong game where he caught 8-of-10 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Samuel is definitely in play as an upside WR3/4, but I prefer Moore and Anderson in this spot.
Player Notes:
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN): Thielen's status is in jeopardy after landing on the COVID list, he's a WR2 if he can play.
UPDATE: Adam Thielen is not expected to play this week.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Love Newton as a low-end QB1 this week and a nice DFS pivot off the top guys. The Cardinals allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, including the third-most rushing yards per game to the position. Newton is coming off a strong passing game, completing 65 percent of his passes against Houston for 365 yards and *gasp* a touchdown pass to a wide receiver! He's also run for nine touchdowns already. The upside here >>>>>>!
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Provided he plays -- he's dealing with an illness -- you've got to play Hopkins, especially with it looking like Larry Fitzgerald won't play as he's on the COVID list. Hopkins has had some off games, but fews wide receivers in the league have the upside he does, so you play him as a WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Any Tight End Playing In This Game
New England allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Arizona allows the seventh-fewest. The two teams combined have allowed three touchdowns to the position this year. I don't trust Arizona's Dan Arnold or New England's Ryan Izzo AT ALL this week. I don't care how deep your league is and how many tight ends you start.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
My issue with Kyler Murray is that we don't know exactly how healthy he is, which gives me a ton of pause when it comes to DFS, at least. Murray's shoulder was clearly an issue last week, and while the numbers -- 29-for-42 for 269 yards and two touchdowns -- might look fine on paper, remember the context: he was facing a historically bad passing defense and wasn't able to do a ton. He also failed to record a rushing score for the first time since Week 4. The Patriots Defense isn't great, but they're better than Seattle, and if Murray is playing below 100 percent again, he could post disappointing numbers.
Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Last week's numbers with Drake back: Edmonds had a 53.73 percent snap rate to Drake's 49.25 percent, but Drake had 11 rushing attempts and three red zone attempts to Edmonds's two and zero, respectively. Drake averaged just 2.64 yards per carry though. In terms of the receiving game, Drake out targeted Edmonds five to four, but Edmonds got the red zone receiving looks. This is a messy situation, with Drake clearly in the better position, though his lack of efficiency is alarming. He's a low-end RB2 play, while Edmonds is an upside RB4 play.
Damien Harris, James White (RB, NE)
I'm assuming Sony Michel won't be involved, but if he is, then this backfield might move into the "hate" section. But as stands right now, the kind of work Harris and White gets complements the pair well, with Harris getting 11 carries last week and a touchdown while white got nine targets and five carries. With Rex Burkhead out, Harris is your RB2/3 play in standard scoring with a little bit of a drop off in PPR, while James White's target share makes him an RB3 play in full PPR. Neither have top-level upside, though.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
No Fitz upgrades him some, but I think Kirk's probably moved into boom/bust territory. The booms are high enough to make him playable as a WR3/4, and the matchup this week isn't tough, but the fact he only had four catches against an atrocious Seattle defense last week shows that he isn't the most trustworthy play in the world.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Last week showed us that we can't actually trust Meyers as much as we thought, as after collecting 31 targets in the three previous games, he saw just three against Houston, catching all of them for 38 yards in a game where the New England passing game went off. Meyers is still the best receiver on this team and I don't expect Damiere Byrd to go off fo 132 yards again, but there's definitely risk with Meyers.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Matchups We Love:
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
The Jets allow the third-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers, which ends up translating into the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the system. Miami's receiving corps is a bit of a mess right now due to injuries, but that does leave Parker in a great spot. He played almost all the snaps last week and was targeted nine times.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
The Jets allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Gesicki isn't producing like we expected he would this year, but thee games in a row with yardage totals in the 40s and a good matchup means he should offer a solid floor with strong upside in this one. Low-end TE1 if you're feeling risky.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Sam Flacco Darnold (QB, NYJ)
Joe Flacco? Sam Darnold? One of them will start against a Dolphins Defense that's surrendered the third-fewest passing touchdowns in the league, and whichever guy that is, I won't be playing him in any lineups.
UPDATE: Sam Darnold has officially been named the starter for this week.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
What happened? Over the last two games, Crowder -- who was the only reliable receiver here at the start of the year -- Crowder has just five targets, which is 9.62 percent of the team's targets. He has just 6.68 percent of their air yards. Crowder is trending down at a bad time for fantasy managers.
Chris Herndon (TE, NYJ)
Don't let last week's touchdown fool you. Herndon is still a low-upside play with a zero-point floor. He wasn't targeted in Week 6 when these teams played and in the last five games has been targeted just five times. One good game doesn't change the overall picture with Herndon.
Other Matchups:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
I don't particularly want to play a rookie QB who was benched last week for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but if there's ever a week to do that, it's against a Jets team that allows the third-most passing yards per game. Tua's probably no better than a mid-range QB2 because of volume concerns, but if you want to get weird in DFS on Sunday, there's potential to get weird here.
UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) has been downgraded to doubtful, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start.
Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA)
Will Gaskin play? He was designated to return from IR and was practicing, so maybe! Gaskin is a solid RB2 play if he is on the field. If he missed another week, Salvon Ahmed is a high-upside RB3 option against this Jets Defense.
UPDATE: Salvon Ahmed has officially been ruled out for this week.
Frank Gore (RB, NYJ)
Considering the other options in this backfield are Ty Johnson and Josh Adams, there's a good chance Gore gets the bulk of the carries against Miami. At this point, he's lost too many steps to take advantage of all those touches, but he does have volume-based playability as an RB3.
Jakeem Grant (WR, MIA)
As I said above with Parker, really good matchup here, but I'm not quite as sold on Grant as I am on Parker, which is why he's only a WR4/5 option. But with an increasing role in this offense, he's a good WR4/5 play if you're forced to actually start someone in that tier!
Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman (WR, NYJ)
Both guys have upside, as they're been on the field a lot the last couple of games. Mims has 16 targets in the span and appears to be the safe-ish floor play, someone who can give you WR4 production. Perriman is more of a big play guy, which drops his floor a ton and makes him a risky WR5. Both are more playable than Crowder in DFS because they'll be cheaper and have been playing better.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
Taysom Hill's first game as an NFL starting QB was a huge success. This time, he faces a better defense than Atlanta, but I think he's still got QB1 upside. Denver has allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks already and should struggle to contain Hill when he's running the ball. Should be another solid one here.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Thomas got back on track thanks to Taysom Hill, seeing his most targets (12), catches (nine), and yards (104) of the season. He played 86 percent of the team's snaps and looks to be the healthiest he's been since Week 1. Thomas isn't securely back at the top of the wide receiver rankings -- Atlanta being bad could definitely have played a huge role in last week's success -- but is a WR1 option for now.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
If there's a skill player in Denver I play this week, it's Fant. The Saints have had some poor moments against tight ends, like when Darren Waller shredded them, and Fant should see a sizable bit of this Broncos offense. He's a low-end TE1 play provided he's fully healthy.
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
In his past two games, Drew Lock has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions. The Saints are tied for fourth in interceptions and third in sacks. This game has the makings of a disaster for the Broncos, and with the Saints slowing things down by running more, there might not even be as much garbage time potential for Lock.
UPDATE: All of the Broncos quarterbacks - Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Blake Bortles, Jeff Driskel - are ineligible to play due to COVID-19. Wide receiver Kendall Hinton is expected to be the Broncos quarterback this week.
Melvin Gordon III, Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
The Saints allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs and this Broncos backfield has largely been a mess minus last week. Gordon has four games of under 50 rushing yards. Lindsay hadn't seen double-digit carries since Week 6 before last week. I'm not buying that this team has suddenly fixed their run blocking. Gordon is a low-end RB2. Lindsay is maybe an RB4. Both are off my DFS radar.
Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler (WR, DEN)
The Broncos have a tough game on their hands, and while I think Jerry Jeudy has value this week, Patrick and Hamler both worry me. In a game where Denver will struggle to find offense, this duo likely cannibalizes each other's value.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Jared Cook has one catch for six yards in the past two games. While he does have four touchdowns this year and always has the chance to find the end zone, his usage has gone down so much -- more than four targets just once since Week 2 -- that I'm officially throwing in the towel on my Jared Cook shares. I'm out. Give me a different starting tight end.
Other Matchups:
Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
Uhh...Kamara moved out of the "love" section of this article? Yep. In Taysom Hill's first game at quarterback, Kamara was targeted just one time, failing to bring it in. For a guy whose value depends a lot on his pass-game usage, that's worrisome! He's still an RB1 in season-long, but this might be the first week all year where I don't pay up for him in DFS because of concerns about how he fits with Hill. As for Murray, he had just one fewer attempt than Kamara last week and four more yards, plus added a pair of receptions. Could Hill be a boost for Murray? Maybe, but I'm still only playing him as an RB4.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
If Jeudy (achilles, ankle) plays, the fact he has eight or more targets in four consecutive games will give him a fairly high floor, even in a potentially disastrous matchup for the Broncos. Consider him a WR3/4 play.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Matchups We Love:
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
With two 100-yard games in his last three times out, Kupp's high target share makes him a safe WR2 option, and he's trending extremely upwards after a 13 and 20 target game recently. High floor. High ceiling. Great play.
Matchups We Hate:
Nick Mullens (QB, SF)
The Rams allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Mullens is essentially unplayable this week.
Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF)
Uhh. Looks like the 49ers will be at full-strength at running back, which means that I honestly have no idea what to do here. Mostert is probably the best of the bunch in terms of fantasy, but predicting usage here feels impossible, especially against this Rams Defense. Maybe...Mostert produces like a low-end RB2, but how positive are we about that?
UPDATE: Raheem Mostert and Jeffrey Wilson Jr. are both expected to be activated for this week.
Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers (RB, LAR)
This game is going to be running back roulette! Spin the wheel and see who gets touches! Just avoid any running back in this game in DFS, and only maybe play Henderson in season-long in hopes he gets the most touches since he's been playing well? Idk!
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
We might see Samuel for the first time since Week 7, but I want to see what his usage looks like before I play him. Remember: in his Week 4 season debut, he played just 34 percent of the team's offensive snaps, catching three passes. He's got the most upside of any Niners receiver, but I'm not ready to return him to my lineup.
UPDATE: Deebo Samuel will make his return this week.
Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)
Meh. San Fran allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, and the Higbee/Everett duo are basically stealing targets from each other at this point. Both are middling TE2 plays.
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
I'm higher on Goff than Mullens -- hence his presence in this section -- but definitely have some concern, even if this 49ers Defense is having a down year. They held Goff to a season-low 198 yards in Week 6 as he completed just half of his passes. With that weighing on my mind, I'll consider him a QB2 play.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Woods saw a huge uptick in volume last week, getting targeted 15 times and catching 12 of them for 130 yards. Those were all season highs. He was also targeted 10 times in the last game against the 49ers, but caught just four of those for 29 yards, although one went for a touchdown. Woods is a solid fantasy play, but his track record this year suggests last week's explosion was a blip and he'll be back to being a solid WR3 play.
Jordan Reed (TE, SF)
While the Rams are not a great matchup for tight ends, Reed's last game was him continue to increase his involvement in this offense, catching five of his six targets for 62 yards. He's a decent upside streaming play.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Should I hate this matchup? Probably, since Tampa allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. But he's Patrick Mahomes! He's only had one game without multiple touchdown passes. He has 348 or more yards in three consecutive appearances. He's a clear QB1 play.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
There has been one game this year in which Hill didn't manage to get into the end zone. He's had 98 or more yards in three straight games. Things are clicking. Play him as a WR1.
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
The more Tom Brady's arm forces him to look short, the more Godwin will benefit. He's trending up right now and should have some good room to work in the slot this week. He's a WR2 play.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Yes, play Travis Kelce as THE TE1 again. Yes, pay up for him in DFS due to his immense upside. He remains football's best tight end and positional scarcity makes him essentially matchup proof.
Matchups We Hate:
Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
Last week's seven carries were his most as a member of the Chiefs. Sure, he scored a touchdown, but Bell's been a low-volume guy since arriving in K.C., and at this point he's just an Edwards-Helaire insurance policy, not a standalone fantasy asset.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
(ducks from tomatoes thrown from the crowd)
The target are here, but as long as Brown is leading the team in air yards, Brady's arm issues worry me too much. Weird that air yards might work against a player, but when Brady struggles so much with his deep ball, it's a reality. Brown's fine, but he's going to be overvalued this week.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
I just think other tight ends have more appeal. Gronk has just five catches in the past three games, and with Antonio Brown in Tampa, Tom Brady has too many mouths to feed. You probably need to play him as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 in season-long, but I'd avoid him in DFS.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has been really hit or miss lately. He threw two picks last week against the Rams. The week before, he completed over 70 percent of his passes with three touchdowns. A week before that, no touchdowns and three picks. The Chiefs Defense has 10 interceptions on the season, so I'll probably lean towards the "miss" side of thing with Brady this week, especially with him ranking 27th in deep ball completion percentage.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
Found the end zone twice last week, reminding us why we were all so high on him at the beginning of the year. Tampa's a fairly tough matchup, but CEH has low-end RB2 value based on his upside.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Pretty good matchup for Jones, but his low snap rate last week (36.23 percent) concerns me, even if he had 10 carries to Fournette's seven. Has upside, but this is a tough backfield to predict because Fournette keeps hanging around, making Jones a risky RB3.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The good news with Evans is he's getting targets again and has touchdowns in three of the last four games. The bad news is KC allows the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, making Evans just a little too boom/bust in my opinion. Low-end WR2?
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
What? Yep, I love Montgomery this week assuming he plays, as he's had such a huge touch share when active that he's basically got a low-end RB2 floor, and then gets a juicy matchup with the Packers, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. You can have confidence in Montgomery as an RB2 this week.
UPDATE: David Montgomery has officially cleared the concussion protocol.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
There's not a single wide receiver I'd rather have in fantasy right now than Adams, who just keeps catching touchdowns. You can almost just pencil him in for 10 targets, 100 yards, and a score as a baseline at this point. This is a tough matchup though, so maybe the floor drops some, but still deploy him as a WR1 with confidence.
Matchups We Hate:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Nick Foles is doubtful, and it's looking like Trubisky is trending towards reclaiming his starting role, but you aren't giving him a fantasy starting role against the Packers, who allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
Matchup here is tough enough for me to avoid both players due to the "Lazard is still working his way back and should be more valuable than MVS, but MVS will still have enough of a role to hurt Lazard in fantasy" corollary.
Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)
I don't think we get a Revenge Game. The Packers allow the fifth-fewest points to tight ends, and Graham didn't have a catch last week. In games where he hasn't scored a touchdown, his most yards were 34. Very boom/bust. TE2 play if you're desperate.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
The Bears actually allow fewer fantasy points per game to QBs than the Packers do, but it's a lot harder to convince someone to bench Aaron Rodgers than the bench Mitch Trubisky. Rodgers has played against a team in the top eight in limiting fantasy points to quarterbacks three times. He has six touchdowns in those three games, but that includes a rough day against Tampa in which he had zero touchdowns and two picks. So, he can be a QB1 against a good defense, but there is a slight chance that he gets shut down.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Not a great matchup plus Jamaal Williams played 50 percent of snaps last week has me thinking about not playing Jones much in DFS. You still have to play him as an RB1 in season-long for his upside, as he's capable of blowing up any week, but this week does have the feeling of not being a blow-up game.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
For the most part, Robinson has been solid, but there's been a few games where his numbers have been a disappointment. The matchup here plus the probable Trubisky start introduces some pessimism into my Robinson forecast, though he's still worth a low-end WR2 play.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
By now, you've stopped playing Tonyan as a TE1 because of the production swings, but this is shaping up to be a solid week for him, as the Bears have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Tonyan could sneak into a low-end TE1 performance, but I wouldn't expect a monster game just based on how he's been producing.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Click here to read about the matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. There may be further changes and updates to the players and analysis within, as this was originally written for the Thanksgiving Thursday Slate.
This game was originally scheduled for Thursday night on Thanksgiving, but was then moved to Sunday due to multiple players testing positive for COVID-19 including Lamar Jackson who has been officially ruled out. This game has now been rescheduled tentatively to Tuesday, but this is a fluid situation and the Ravens have been told to not return to their practice facilities until Monday. Stay tuned.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchup between the Seahawks and Eagles.
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