RADIO
After the longest week in football history (literally), we move into either the first week of playoffs or the last week of the regular season for most leagues. Last week we saw some record-breaking performances from Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes, along with some disappointing “studs” (Dalvin Cook and DeAndre Hopkins).
We have another extended week for football as the Cowboys travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the underperforming Ravens.
In what is one of the most important weeks of the year, it is time for some make-or-break fantasy decisions - no pressure. I will do my best to bring you fantasy success in this week’s Tuesday Night Football analysis.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens
Tuesday 12/8 @ 8:05 PM ET
Notable Injuries:
- Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) - COVID-19 - Questionable
- Mark Andrews (TE, BAL) - COVID-19 - Doubtful
- Robert Griffin III (QB, BAL) - Thigh - Out
- Jimmy Smith (CB, BAL) - Groin - Questionable
- D.J. Fluker (G, BAL) - Ankle - Questionable
- Zack Martin (G, DAL) - Calf - Questionable
Must Starts
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL): Although he may not be the sure-fire WR1 we expected during draft season, Andy Dalton returning to the helm makes Cooper a “Must Start”. We saw this last week where Cooper produced 112 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Despite the offensive woes plaguing the Cowboys after the injury to Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper still has the 12th most yards at the position. They might not be the best quality targets, but Cooper is tied with Davante Adams for the eighth-most targets in the league as well. This usage, combined with Cooper’s game-breaking talent, makes him a WR-two with upside even in this tough matchup.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL): What should be a perennial “must start” option, Zeke has disappointed many fantasy owners. Over the last five weeks, he is the RB-35. Yikes. So, why does he make this section? Well, this “scary” matchup might be the perfect game for Zeke to bounce-back. Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have allowed the fourth MOST rushing yards per game (138). However, they are allowing the ninth least passing yards per game on the season. I am projecting Andy Dalton to struggle in this matchup (which I will get into later) and think the Cowboys will look to slow down the game and keep the ball on the ground. Recency bias won’t make this feel good, but I am projecting Zeke to open the Pie Shop* this week. After all, he still ranks as the RB-eight and has the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL): You might be wondering why Lamar Jackson does not make this week's “must start” list. Well, the answer to that is Dobbins. Despite Dallas’ defence being widely regarded as one of the worst in the league, they are allowing the twelfth least passing yards per game. This is not necessarily a result of their ability to stop the pass, but their lack of ability to slow down the run. Averaging 156.4 rushing yards against per game, Dallas is by far the worst in the league. In three of his last four games, Dobbins has made his mark as the clear lead back on this team. In these three games, he has had 12 or more rushing attempts with two targets in each. Although this may not be the workload you want to rely on, against this putrid defence it should be more than enough for Dobbins to have a day. I’m predicting the Pie Shop to be open for both backs in this game.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL): I apologize to everyone who took my advice last week and benched Hollywood. Last week’s “Sit” option was saved by a 70 yard touchdown reception. Outside of that one play he had a mere 3 receptions for 15 yards. Yikes. However, this week he makes this section not because of his production last week, but rather because of the usage we saw. In the first week without both Willie Snead IV and Mark Andrews, the Ravens were scheming to get the ball in Brown’s hands. And guess what - both Snead and Andrews should miss this game as well. With eight targets Brown dominated the passing work with a 62% target share. If Lamar Jackson comes back and he continues to see this usage, he is bound to make a big play against this weak defense. I think this is the perfect storm for Hollywood to finally be that week winning flex play just in time for your fantasy playoffs.
Solid Options
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL): Note that Lamar Jackson is eligible to come off of the COVID-19 list on Sunday. It pains me to put Lamar Jackson as a “solid option” and not a “must start” this week, but that is exactly what he has been all season. Before missing last week, Jackson was having a very steady fantasy year as the QB-10. Dallas has been solid against the passing game this season averaging the 12th least yards per game through the air. This is largely due to their inability to stop the run which also plays to Jackson’s strengths. In what has been a rude awakening for his passing numbers, the former MVP has been saved by his rushing ability. Over his last four games, he has had at least 11 rushing attempts and 50 yards on the ground. His ability to have this rushing floor means he should not be benched in any format this week. Plus, with Dallas’ horrific rushing defense, I would not be surprised my huge expectations for Dobbins this week rub off on Lamar Jackson. He is a top ten player with top-three upside this week.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL): Despite losing Dak Prescott early in the season, Lamb has continued to have a solid rookie campaign. Although he has only cracked 35 yards once in his last four games, he has managed to salvage his fantasy day by scoring two touchdowns in that span. This might sound too inconsistent to be a “solid option” however, Lamb is 19th in targets at the position and averaging 7.3 a game. In a game where Dallas should be trailing, I expect Dalton to maintain his target share. As a result, I think the rookie can be started as a solid WR-three this week.
Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL): Duvernay makes this week as a “solid option”. I understand that being late in the season some of you may be looking for a desperation play at the position, and Duvernay might be that guy. Without Andrews, and the team focusing on Brown as the lead option, there is potential for a second Ravens pass-catcher to be productive. I think that this pass-catcher will most likely be Duvernay. Despite my recommendation for Miles Boykin last week, he did not receive a target. However, Duvernay was second on the team in both targets and receptions. He has big-play ability and I think he can be a desperate high-upside play this week.
Consider Sitting
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL): Andy Dalton is currently 44th in points per game at the position. To put this in perspective this is behind Trace McSorley who we saw make his NFL debut in the third quarter against the Steelers last week. To make the situation even worse, Baltimore has only allowed two quarterbacks to pass for over 300 (Patrick Mahomes and Dwayne Haskins) and have held five QB’s to under 200 passing yards. Don’t try and be cute by starting Andy Dalton in what might be the most important fantasy week so far.
Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram (RB, BAL): I don’t expect either of these backs to receive enough work to be started in any fantasy format. *See J.K. Dobbins for more*
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL): In the tight end landscape you have to look for one of two things: usage and upside. Schultz brings you sufficient usage as he has at least five targets in each of the last four games. Therefore, he can be viewed as a desperation play. However, in a game where I am expecting Andy Dalton to struggle, I would rather take my shot elsewhere if possible.
Luke Willson (TE, BAL): For the second week in a row I get the pleasure of talking about fellow Canadian Luke Willson. You might be thinking that without Andrews there is potential for Willson to be productive. As much as I want to agree with that, I can’t. Leave Willson on the wire again for this week.
Ellis’ Picks: Spread (7-7), Over/Under (6-8)
I think both teams will look to keep the ball on the ground and exploit their opponents' struggling run defense. With Dobbins and Zeke moving the rock, both teams should be able to score on each other. Here are my picks: Dallas +9, Over 45.5
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