RADIO
Week 13 is nearly in the books pending another Tuesday game, but most of us are onto Week 14 and that means fantasy football playoff season is here. With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
There are no more bye weeks and hopefully no additional COVID-19 disruptions. It's just us and the home stretch. Finish strong with my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 14, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.
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FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
13% rostered
Dalton gets a revenge game against Cincinnati, where he spent nine seasons, in Week 14. He brings with him one of the fuller complements of weapons that he's ever had, even if they are underperforming as a unit. He's not Dak Prescott but the Bengals are unlikely to offer much resistance here thanks to a nonexistent pass rush, leaving Dalton as a viable streamer for playoff dreams.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
27% rostered
If Jones’s hamstring injury is behind him in Week 14 then you’ll want him on your team. I know the Cardinals held Cam Newton to peanuts in Week 12, but they allowed QBs to put up multiple TDs in the other five of their last six games. This includes 35 or more rush yards yielded in five of those six as well. The Giants are starting to gel and Jones has the athleticism to punish defenses that lose a QB in the shuffle, but if his hammy isn’t 100% then the rushing potential may be capped.
Mitchell Trubisky (QB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
13% rostered
Trubs couldn't replicate his Week 1, three-TD magic against the Lions on Sunday but still leads the Bears into a solid matchup with Houston in Week 14. They'll look to end a six-game losing streak there against a defense that has recently allowed Cam Newton and Jake Luton to throw for over 300 yards. I'm not sure which is more surprising at this point. While the Bears are best served rushing the ball, I also don't trust their defense to contain Deshaun Watson. All-in-all, he's not the worst desperation stream. A ringing endorsement, I know.
Sam Darnold (QB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
8% rostered
Darnold hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in any of his last four games, but finally logged his first game with multiple passing TDs in Week 13’s loss to Las Vegas. I don't expect the Seahawks to play down to the Jets after being embarrassed by the Giants, but Darnold is worth a 2QB start thanks to a rising WR trio spearheaded by reliable slot man, Jamison Crowder.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs
Cam Akers (RB, LAR) - FAB Bid: 100%
52% rostered
Still available in half of Yahoo leagues, throw the wallet at him if you have to.
RBs with 3+ touches inside the 5-yard line today:
- Ty Johnson, 4
- Cam Akers, 3
- Myles Gaskin, 3— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 7, 2020
Which leads nicely to...
Ty Johnson (RB, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 20-30%
1% rostered
Frank Gore left with a concussion and Ty Johnson took on the rushing bulk for NYJ, turning in 117 total yards and a TD on 24 touches. Gore may be cleared by Week 14, which brings another solid matchup against Seattle. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Jets feature Johnson even if Gore is active as they look towards the future.
Peyton Barber (RB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 10-15%
1% rostered
Antonio Gibson left Week 13’s game early due to turf toe, leaving Barber as the starting RB alongside pass-catcher J.D. McKissic. Barber is the usual short-yard back who draws goal-line opportunities, though we did see McKissic stay in on Monday evening at the goal line. It wasn’t until Washington received a new set of downs (via penalty) that Barber was subbed in and easily scored. McKissic remains the preferred option given his versatility but he’s unavailable in nearly half of Yahoo leagues.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB/WR, CHI) - FAB Bid: 5-10%
7% rostered
Patterson rushed 10 times for 59 yards and a score while adding a four-yard catch against Detroit’s beleaguered defense. He and David Montgomery stuffed the ball down the Lions’ throats all game, and we should see more of the same against Houston in Week 14. You're here because you want 8-12 touches in a deep league, not because you expect a return TD and a rush TD (but that it's in his range is a nice perk).
Josh Adams (RB, NYJ) - 0% - FAB: 0-1% - Can't rule out a committee with Johnson.
Alfred Morris (RB, NYG) - 0% - FAB: 2-3% - Showed short-yardage success.
Lynn Bowden Jr. (RB, MIA) - 0% - FAB: 3-4% - Finally starting to get involved.
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL) - 18% - FAB: 3-4% - Early Zeke woes may lead to a shift.
Jordan Howard (RB, PHI) - 15% - FAB: 1-2% - Only for the desperate TD vultures.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 30-40%
45% rostered
Hilton just loves torching the Texans -- his eight-catch, 110-yard day is just another game in a string of success at Houston.
What has T.Y. Hilton done in Houston?
2012: 3 for 78
2013: 7 for 121, 3
2014: 9 for 223, 1 TD
2015: 5 for 88
2016: 3 for 49
2017: 5 for 175, 2 TD
2018: 9 for 199
2018: 5 for 85 (playoffs)
2019: 3 for 18Averaging 21.1 yards per reception, 12.6 yards per target. Texans daddy.
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) December 6, 2020
This doesn’t mean that he’s suddenly the No. 1 again and Michael Pittman Jr. is chopped liver, but Indy’s limited passing attack with a hobbled Philip Rivers does have a lower all-around ceiling. If this game is a sign of good health and chemistry for Hilton heading into juicy matchups against the Raiders next week and the Texans again in Week 15 then you need to be in.
Keke Coutee (WR, HOU) - FAB Bid: 20-30%
26% rostered
With Will Fuller suspended for the rest of 2020 (and the first game of 2021) due to PEDs, Houston’s other wideouts must step up. Coutee answered the call by suddenly running deeper routes to the tune of 141 yards on eight catches. The Texans aren’t effective running the ball and Deshaun Watson’s penchant for extending plays makes someone like Coutee a potential league-winner down the stretch. We can’t overlook Chad Hansen, a former fourth-round pick by the Jets in 2017 who cashed with 5-101-0 but may be overtaken by Isaiah Coulter (if healthy) in Week 14.
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 10-15%
22% rostered
Patrick caught two TDs on Sunday, including an incredible toe-tapping effort that showcased his body control. I wish he had a better QB than Drew Lock throwing him the ball, but he’s earned red-zone attention even as Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler continue to grow. Week 14 pits Patrick against a Carolina defense that may have some COVID-19 absences.
Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 8-10%
11% rostered
Mims only caught two-of-three targets for 40 yards in Week 13, adding a two-point conversion in as well. He, Breshad Perriman and Braxton Berrios each had 1-2 receptions while Jamison Crowder (5-47-2) ate in the slot. Crowder has been a Sam Darnold favorite so perhaps there isn’t enough to float Mims or Perriman as perimeter options, but the opportunity against the Seahawks in Week 14 is as good as it gets.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE) - 11% - FAB: 5-10% - CLE is run-first but starting snaps here.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - 7% - FAB: 3-5% - 25 targets last 3 games, 4-51-1 in Week 13.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX) - 16% - FAB: 2-3% - Fluky TD, but 68 total yards works.
Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI) - 22% - FAB: 2-3% - Only 2 touches, but 45 yards + Return TD.
Van Jefferson Jr. (WR, LAR) - 1% - FAB: 1-2% - Outsnapped, outdid Josh Reynolds.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - Deep threat w/ low floor.
Collin Johnson (WR, JAX) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - Two straight big weeks with Glennon at QB.
Brandon Zylstra (WR, CAR) - 0% - FAB: 1-2% - Moore and Samuel may be out, still iffy.
Josh Gordon (WR, SEA) - 5% - FAB: 0-1% - We may see him in Wk 15, low expectations.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
5% rostered
With Chicago seeking sparks behind Allen Robinson II in the air, Kmet has been brought on ahead of Jimmy Graham lately. While Graham has seen just seven targets in their last three games (for 3-32-0), the rookie got seven targets in Week 13 alone for a zesty 5-37-1 line. The 13 targets in the past three signals the torch being passed and Houston’s vulnerable defense lies ahead in Week 14. His playoff schedule is Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville -- all three defenses give up over 50 yards to opposing TEs on average.
Second-round rookie tight end Cole Kmet has topped 75 percent of the snaps in each of Chicago's games coming out of the Bye, and the extra playing time finally resulted in production in Week 13.
He's a borderline top-20 Fantasy TE going forward and worth an add in deep leagues.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 7, 2020
Anthony Firkser (TE, TEN) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
9% rostered
Worries about Geoff Swaim edging out Firkser for work with Jonnu Smith out were overblown, as Swaim went catchless while Firkser caught five balls for 51 yards on seven looks. We all remembered his 8-113-1 line from Week 6 in relief of an injured Smith, of course. Week 14 at Jacksonville gives him another strong matchup to add to his portfolio with should Smith remain out.
Dan Arnold (TE, ARI) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
0% rostered
Arnold made the most of his limited work, catching two TDs as his only two receptions on the day. One was a busted-coverage, 59-yard TD before adding a garbage-time TD at the end of Arizona’s 38-28 loss to the Rams. He has four catches yet three TDs in the past three games, making him a decent TD dart throw against the Giants in Week 14. His high level of athleticism is intriguing but the involvement is too low for serious consideration.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams
Houston Texans Defense (at CHI) - 11% rostered - FAB Bid: 4-5%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs. MIN) - 44% - FAB Bid: 3-4%
San Francisco 49ers Defense (vs. WAS) - 48% - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Tennessee Titans Defense (at JAX) - 32% - FAB Bid: 2-4%
Some dinged defenses draw plus matchups as the rostership rates reflect teams that have locked up playoff spots hoarding the premier draws. When in doubt, turn to Vegas and check into likely gamescripts, targeting teams that yield sacks or have turnover-prone QBs.
The Texans are 2.5-point favorites at many books despite being on the road. The Bucs are 6.5-point favorites at home. The 49ers are 4.5-point favorites with a low 43.5 O/U line and the Titans are 7.5-point favorites.
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