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When the Philadelphia Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft, many people were surprised. After all, they already had their franchise quarterback in Carson Wentz.
Fast forward to Week 16, and the move looks incredibly smart. Wentz struggled all season and when the Eagles finally made the switch during their Week 13 game against Green Bay, it was obvious they had found their new quarterback of the future.
But what about those of us who play fantasy football? If you grabbed Hurts off of waivers, he helped you when it mattered most, which is the fantasy playoffs. But can he help you in 2021? Let’s dive in and find out.
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Statues Are Crumbling
The NFL may still gush over statuesque quarterbacks with big arms, but if your quarterback can’t run in fantasy, chances are he isn’t elite. 10 quarterbacks finished with over 300 points in standard four-point TD passing leagues, and only two of them had fewer than 225 rushing yards. Those two were Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, who combined for 80 passing touchdowns (through Week 16) while each also had three rushing touchdowns. In fact, no quarterback in the top-10 had fewer than two rushing touchdowns, and as a group, they averaged almost 400 yards rushing on the season.
That is a huge factor when discussing the fantasy outlook of Jalen Hurts. In his three starts, he had 106, 63, and 69 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. If we extrapolate his rushing yards over a 16-game season, he would have finished with 1,269 yards. That’s more than Lamar Jackson had in his record-breaking 2019 season. Now, I am not saying Hurts will do that, but it shows the immense upside he brings with his legs. And in today’s fantasy football world, that makes him at least a top-10 option.
Can He Sling It?
While a mobile quarterback brings you tons of upside and a safe floor, they still need to be able to throw the ball. Only one quarterback inside the top-10, Lamar Jackson, threw for fewer than 3,600 yards. Despite rushing for over 900 yards and scoring seven rushing touchdowns, his lack of passing only allowed him to finish ninth. To have that truly elite ceiling, you need the running and the passing.
Once again, Hurts looks more than good enough in this aspect. After throwing for only 167 yards in his first start, he threw for over 300 in his next two (Week 17 pending). He also had five passing touchdowns over that period. And if you go back to his final year in college with Oklahoma, he finished eighth in passing yards and first in yards per attempt. He certainly can get it done with his legs and his arm.
Red Flags
Not everything about Hurts’ 2020 season was perfect. For one thing, he never completed more than 56% of his passes in a game. Whether this is an accuracy issue or a lack of receiving weapons issue, I’m not sure, but it’s still an area of concern.
Even more concerning is that in his three starts, he took nine sacks and had four turnovers. No quarterback inside the top-10 in 2020 had more than 16 turnovers, so that is certainly something to be aware of. Perhaps with a full offseason under his belt, he can get that under control, but it is certainly a red flag.
Let's also not forget the Eagles still have Carson Wentz who is under contract for at least 2021. If Hurts struggles early, it would not be crazy to see the Eagles and head coach Doug Pederson turn the job back over to Wentz. We've seen this with other young quarterbacks like Dwayne Haskins and Tua Tagovailoa. If the Eagles are in the hunt and they feel Wentz gives them a better chance, they'll make the switch.
Early ADP Analysis
Still, despite the potential red flags, I am very confident that Jalen Hurts will finish as a top-10 quarterback in 2021 assuming he is the Eagles' starter, which at this point, seems highly likely. I also think top-five is well within his range of outcomes and he has a legitimate shot at number one overall. The good news is, you likely won’t have to draft him that high.
When you look at the amount of perceived elite fantasy quarterbacks such as Murray, Allen, Mahomes, Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, along with possibly Brady, Tannehill, and Burrow, it’s not at all crazy to think Hurts won’t even be drafted as a QB1. I would be more than happy to draft him later as he is the perfect combination of running and passing that produces elite fantasy quarterback seasons.
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