RADIO
We have made it through the NFL regular season and to the playoffs. We kick off the playoffs with something new for 2020, a MEGA-WILDCARD WEEKEND!!!!! Triple headers on Saturday and Sunday to get the playoffs started. On Sunday, we have two AFC games and NFC games to look at for DFS purposes. The slate is similar to Saturday in that there are two games with large spreads of six or more, but all three games have totals of 47 or higher, which leaves a lot of ways to build lineups.
There is some nice value when looking at the Wild Card Sunday slate. With so many nice teams to stack up in some nice game environments, many values depend on the risks you want to take. Lamar Jackson will be popular at the quarterback position, but Ryan Tannehill and others are definitely in play when stacked properly. Derrick Henry leads the way in the backfield, but David Montgomery, maybe Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, and others are all in consideration. Like the first two positions, WR and TE have some nice options up top, but maybe the areas I look to save a little more money to pay up for the others. Regardless of your plan of attack, there is a lot of value for stacks in cash games and tournaments, making for an entertaining Sunday three-game slate.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's look at the cash value plays for the Wild Card Sunday slate of the 2020 NFL season.
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Wild Card Sunday Quarterback Value Plays
Drew Brees, NO vs CHI | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,800
Baker Mayfield and Mitchell Trubisky are also interesting values, but Brees leads the way. Sure he is not the MVP Brees of yesteryear, but he can still sling it around, racking up 300 yards, and throw for a few touchdowns on any given Sunday. He has played the last three weeks after missing some games due to an injury and has scored 20 or more in two of three games and thrown for three touchdowns in each of those games. He will be taking on a Bears Defense that has allowed 253 passing yards, over two touchdowns, and nearly 20 fantasy points per game over the last four games to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints are also 10 point favorites (Saints don't run much regardless of spread), with a 28.5 point implied team total, and he may be getting Michael Thomas and Kamara back this week. Brees is my cash game quarterback and is solid in tournament stacks.
Wild Card Sunday Running Back Value Plays
Kareem Hunt, CLE at PIT | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,900
The running back position is worth paying up a bit for on Sunday, but if saving, then Hunt is quite interesting for tournaments. He has a tough matchup versus a Steelers team that ranks third on the season versus backs and, more importantly, limits receptions to backs. In tournaments, I would choose to ignore that stat as the only way the Browns likely keep this game close is by throwing the ball as they are six-point underdogs with a 21 point implied team total. Hunt is usually good for at least 10 touches a week, and if he finds the end-zone, he will pay off handsomely as a lowly rostered running back.
Latavius Murray, NO vs CHI | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,400
Murray is only in play in massive tournaments, or the event Kamara misses the game. If Kamara misses the game, then lock Murray into your cash lineups, and he makes a great tournament play as well. He would take over a large part of Kamara's 23% target share and 21% red-zone target share. He has put up 20 or more fantasy points twice this year when locked into a larger role, and that should be a near lock with no Kamara.
Wild Card Sunday Wide Receiver Value Plays
Marquise Brown, BAL at TEN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300
Brown's price is a massive discount compared to his recent play. After a slow start to the season, Brown has returned to his WR1 duties for the Ravens. He has been targeted six or more times in five of the last six games. He has also scored double-digit fantasy points in all six games and scored six touchdowns over that stretch. But wait, it gets better. Brown has a 33.3% target share, has 38% of the air yards, and 26% of the red-zone targets over the same six games. He has also been targeted five times in the red-zone over the last three games. He will be taking on a Titans Defense that ranks 30 over the last four games versus WR and should get torched again as the Ravens have a 29 point implied team total. Jackson with Broan and Mark Andrews is an outstanding and probably popular stack on Sunday.
Rashard Higgins, CLE at PIT | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,500
When building your lineups, you have to have game narratives you are building around, and if you think the Browns keep it close with the Steelers, it will likely be due to the passing game. Higgins will make a strong GPP value if that is the case. Over the last four games, he has double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. Higgins has a 21% target share and near 20% red-zone target share over the last four games. The Steelers Defense is legit but has been thrown on from time to time, and if Mayfield wants to keep it close, he will throw it often to his guy Higgins.
Anthony Miller, CHI at NO | DK: $3,300, FD: $4,700
Keep an eye on Darnell Mooney's health going into Sunday as he has yet to practice as of Thursday. If Mooney is a no-go, Miller becomes a solid value, likely even a cash game value. Mooney has been targeted at least five times over the last three games, and some of those targets are likely to go Miller's way. We know Miller can take the top off of defense when given a chance. He will take on a secondary that ranks 22 versus WR in the last four games, which could really open things up to Miller, Allen Robinson, and other Bears pass catchers for contrarian builds.
Wild Card Sunday Tight End Value Plays
Cole Kmet, CHI at NO | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,300
Similar to the Miller discussion, Kmet is a great value on Sunday. The difference is Kmet is a good play with or without Mooney playing. Since Trubisky has reclaimed his role as starting quarterback, he has liked the rookie, Kmet. He has targeted Kmet six or more times in four of the last five games, good for a near 25% target share and 24% red-zone target share. He has run badly in the red zone as he only has one touchdown over those five games. He will take on a Saints Defense ranked 28 versus tight ends over the last four games, allowing 6.5 receptions and nearly 17 fantasy points per game over that stretch.
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