RADIO
We have made it to Round 2, the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. There are two games Saturday and two games Sunday, but the article will treat the two days as one four-game slate offered on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are two games with spreads of three or less and two spreads of a touchdown or more when looking at the spreads. When looking at totals, there are three totals over 50, so scoring should be plenty. With high implied totals and a few tight spreads, there will be a lot of value, especially on some underdogs this weekend.
When initially looking at the Divisional Round slate, everyone will want to play Kansas City and Green Bay, not a bad approach, but there are many ways to go. There's an NFC South rematch between the Buccaneers and the Saints, resulting in all kinds of offense. The Ravens and Bills face off with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen looking to break the video game codes. Please do not sleep on the Browns either, as big dogs have shown they can still score plenty. The Chiefs Defense is not what it once was, allowing for a lot of fantasy goodness.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at value plays for the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL season.
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Divisional Quarterback Value Plays
Baker Mayfield, CLE at KC | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,400
Honestly, it feels good writing about Baker as a value for DFS. Heck, he has earned a higher price tag with his recent play. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of his last seven games and has scored 16 or more points in each of those five games. He has shown ceiling games and four 20+ point games over that stretch, including two games in the '30s. He brings a cash game floor into Sunday's action as well as a tournament upside, the best of both worlds when it comes to value. He will face a Chiefs defense who is coming off a bye but was ranked 31 over the last four weeks of the season versus quarterbacks. The Cheifs defense allowed nearly 290 passing yards per game, an average of 2.5 touchdowns thrown per game, and nearly 30 fantasy points on average per game. The Browns are 10 point underdogs with a 23.5 point implied team total. Mayfield should be throwing early and often to keep up with Mahomes, and his DFS price is too low for such a juicy matchup.
Divisional Round Running Back Value Plays
Cam Akers, LAR at GB | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000
Akers is coming into the Divisional Round after a monster game in the Wild Card Round. He had a total of 30 touches for 176 yards and a touchdown on his way to nearly 30 fantasy points. That makes three of the last four games with at least 20 carries and at least 25 touches in two of Akers' last four games. He has become the Rams workhorse, and that should not change on Saturday. The Rams are touchdown underdogs in Lambeau, making many think the ball will be thrown all over the place to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and company. I do not believe that to be the case as the Rams Defense has been elite of late, and that should help keep the game relatively close and keep Akers in play. The Packers Defense is ranked 11 over the last four games versus running backs, but 28 on the season. You can run on the Pack, and Akers should be able to show that on his way to at least 20 more touches and some cash game goodness.
Devin Singletary, BUF vs BAL | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,700
I am not in love with this play, but there is some serious appeal with Singletary for tournaments. Zack Moss left last week's game with an injury and will be out for the rest of the playoffs, making Singletary the main back in Buffalo. The problem with that is that the Bills have been a pass-heavy team or run first with Josh Allen not running back. The Ravens Defense ranks first over the last four weeks versus running backs, making this even crazier but not impossible. The weather looks near freezing, with potential snow and some decent wind, giving Singletary more touches. He is dirt cheap and should get 10+, hopefully, 15+ touches for the Bills on Saturday night.
Gus Edwards, BAL at BUF | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,300
Edwards is a tournament play I love. I mentioned him in chats last week, and once again, he brought some tournament goodness. Everyone flocks to J.K. Dobbins, and I get it, but Edwards is getting almost as many snaps and touches as Dobbins the last few weeks. Last week alone, Dobbins played on 33 snaps with nine carries while Edwards was in 29 snaps with eight carries. Edwards also had double-digit touches in each of the final three games of the regular season. He will take on a Bills Defense that ranks 25 versus running backs over the last four weeks, allowing nearly 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. With Edwards splitting time with Dobbins, a decent amount of the fantasy production should be coming Edwards way at quite the discount. If Edwards can find the end zone, then it will be celebration time for your tournament teams.
Quick Notes - Keep an eye on the KC situation as Clyde Edwards-Helaire is banged up and may miss Sunday's game, opening up Le'Veon Bell but, more importantly, Darwin Thompson value. Also, keep an eye on Tampa Bay as Ronald Jones can barely practice, making Leonard Fournette another major value. There is a ton of RB value that could open up money for the top WR or TE, even a potential double TE lineup.
Divisional Round Wide Receiver Value Plays
Jarvis Landry, CLE at KC | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,900
Landry has been a target monster for the Browns over the last six weeks, and that should not change this week versus the Chiefs. Landry has been targeted at least six times in each of the last six games and has scored 11 or more points in all six games and nearly 16 or more in five of six games. He will face-off versus a Chiefs defense that allows 53% more fantasy points to wide receivers when favored over the last nine games. 10 points favor the Chiefs, and the Browns have an implied team total of 23.5. Mayfield should be throwing a lot on Sunday, and Landry should once again be looking at a ton of targets and fantasy goodness.
Marquise Brown, BAL at BUF | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500
Brown was a cover boy last week, and he paid off in a big way, catching seven of nine targets for 109 yards and even pitched in two carries for 19 yards on his way to over 20 fantasy points. Brown continues to be a beast for the Ravens with six or more targets in six of his last seven games, not to mention five red-zone targets over the last three games. The Bills have been strong versus receivers this season, but they are coming off a game where tight ends torched them, and they should focus on stopping Mark Andrews, hopefully leading to more upside for Brown. Regardless, Brown is playing at an elite level, in a game that should go back and forth, putting up points, resulting in Brown's fantasy goodness.
Gabriel Davis, BUF vs BAL | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,400
Let's talk value tournament plays, and let's talk Gabriel Davis. Davis has been targeted at least four times in seven straight games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in five of those seven games. The Ravens defense has improved of late, and that shows as they are ranked 2 over the last four weeks versus WR. That will not stop me from playing a value, Davis. The Bills are a passing offense, attempting over 30 passes in all but three games this season. Allen spreads the ball around as well, with five receivers receiving at least 10% target share in each of the final six regular-season games. The Bills are 2.5 point favorites with an implied team total of 27. The ball will be flying all over Buffalo, and Davis will get his looks, making for a very nice tournament play.
Divisional Round Tight End Value Plays
Dawson Knox, BUF vs BAL | DK: $3,100, FD: $5,000
It is just another week where Knox remains a nice value. He received three targets this past week, including 50% of the team's red-zone targets, on his way to two catches and a touchdown, which works at his price point. Over the last four Bills games, Knox had a 15% target share and a near 14% red-zone target share. He faces a Ravens team ranked 14 over the last four games versus tight ends, allowing 5+ catches and 52 yards on average over the last four games, as well as 12 fantasy points per game on average over that same stretch. Knox will get the red-zone love as well as a few passes from time to time. He is a strong value weekly, and that will not change this Saturday. If you do not like Knox, that is fine as there are a few elite options with Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Robert Tonyan to pay up for this week.
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