RADIO
We have made it to the SUPER BOWL!!!!! The Kansas City Chiefs return to the big game attempting to win back-to-back titles, while Tom Brady returns once again but with a new team as the Tampa Bay Bucaneers represent the NFC. The Bucs will be playing in their home stadium, but I really do not put a ton of weight on that as the game's fans will still be spread out between loyalties or just company parties. Since there is only one game on the schedule, we will have a showdown slate. DraftKings and FanDuel's two sites are slightly different as the DK captain is priced up, but the FD captain is the same price as if they were not captain. That can change things a bit, but regardless we are looking for value, and we will discuss some value for captain and flex spots. Lastly, when looking at the game through the Vegas lens, the Chiefs are three-point favorites with a game total of 56. There should be points plenty and a great game on our hands.
When initially looking at the Super Bowl slate, there are the players everyone will want to plug in with Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, and/or Mike Evans. Obviously, all these players will not fit in the same lineup due to pricing, but using as many studs as possible will be popular. Determining who to spend up for at captain on DK will also be quite the thought process. If rostering the studs, you will need a few pieces of value, so let's take a look at who to target for the Big Game on Sunday.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's look at some DFS value plays for the Super Bowl of the 2020 NFL season.
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Super Bowl Showdown DFS Value Plays - Captain
Leonard Fournette, TB vs KC | DK: $11,700, FD: $12,500
"Playoff Lenny" struck again in the conference title game versus the Packers. He had 12 more carries for 55 yards but, more importantly, caught five of his seven targets and found the endzone. That makes four or more targets and four or more receptions in each playoff game for Fournette, leading to 18 or more DK and 16 or more FD points in each game. When it comes to captains getting the 1.5X bonus, the high scoring Fournette has produced at a reasonable price stands out as significant value, especially the DK discount with the PPR format. He will take on a Chiefs Defense that is allowing nearly 90 yards on the ground to opposing backs over the last four games, as well as 6.5 receptions per game and an average of 25.5 fantasy points per game. Fournette should be used early and often once again on Sunday, and his use in the passing game makes him a nice value overall and as a potential sneaky captain play.
Mecole Hardman, KC vs TB | DK: $8,400, FD: $7,500
If you want to go full YOLO at the captain, then Hardman is that play. Hardman is a perfect boom or bust play, but he has been more boom than bust of late as the Chiefs have been using him a bit more regularly. Hardman has scored 10 or more fantasy points in four of the past six games. He has at least two receptions in each game and a carry in four of six games. Hardman is also tied with Hill having two red-zone targets each in the playoffs, trailing only Travis Kelce. Hardman has showcased the big game playability and speed that rivals his teammate Tyreek Hill which could hurt the Bucs. The Bucs defense is ranked 24 over the last four weeks versus WR and just allowed a big game to Ty Montgomery in the NFC title game. Keep a close eye on the Chiefs' injury reports as Watkins is trying to come back but may not be 100% while Demarcus Robinson is on the COVID list due to close contact. If you choose not to use Hardman as captain, he is also a great value on DK at only $5,600.
Super Bowl Showdown DFS Value Plays
Cameron Brate, TB vs KC | DK: $4,800, FD: $7,000
I wrote up Brate in the Conference Title value plays, and he came through yet again with three receptions on five targets and found the endzone for another double-digit fantasy point game. He is fourth on the team in targets this postseason, with 16 trailing only Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. The next closest player in targets is Rob Gronkowski with seven. Brate is also third on the team in red-zone targets behind Gronk and Evans. Brate has at least five targets in each postseason game and has scored at least nine fantasy points in each game. Over the last four games, the Chiefs rank 28 versus TE, allowing an average of six receptions and 17 fantasy points per game. If you do not want to pay for Brate but are still looking for value, you can give Gronk a shot as he is only $3,000 on DK and $6,500 on FD.
Sammy Watkins, KC vs TB | DK: $4,200, FD: $7,500
I've already discussed the solid play in Hardman above, but Watkins is still up for discussion. Watkins has not played since Week 16 as he has been battling a calf injury, but he cannot be ignored if he suits up on Sunday. He was third on the Chiefs in targets with a 14% target share and third in red-zone targets with a 20% red-zone target share during the regular season. While defenses continue to focus on Kelce and Hill, Watkins could flourish if healthy. If Robinson and Watkins are out and you want the YOLO of YOLO value plays, keep an eye on Byron Pringle (DK $1,800, FD $6,000), who has eight targets this postseason, which is third behind Kelce and Hill. Pringle needs a couple of catches and maybe find the end-zone to give great value while being basically free, allowing for many studs in your lineup.
Ronald Jones II, TB vs KC | DK: $2,200, FD: $8,000
Yep, I did recommend Fournette, and he is still the play over Jones, but if looking to save or maybe even playing both in the same lineup (would be unique), do not forget about Jones. Sure, Fournette is getting all the love, but Jones has carried the ball nearly as many times as Fournette over the last two weeks. Jones has 23 carries compared to Fournette's 29, while both have three red-zone carries. The major difference is Fournette has 13 targets compared to Jones' one. Jones is strictly a running option for now, but the fact he is getting the carries and, more importantly, the red-zone carries is intriguing. He is dirt cheap, and if he can get 10-15 carries and fall into the endzone, then watch out value, folks.
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