GPP Correlations and DraftKings DFS Lineups for Super Bowl LV

The Super Bowl is finally upon us. We're ready to watch a Battle of Titans with the Chiefs and Bucs. In one corner, we have Tom Brady, quite possibly the greatest quarterback of all time. His opponent is Patrick Mahomes, defending Super Bowl champion who looks poised to go down as one of the greats as well. You couldn't have scripted a better quarterback matchup than this one. The question is, how do we target this mouth-watering matchup in DFS?

In a showdown slate, it's even more important to choose the optimal stack and in order to do that, you need to take a look at correlations. This helps determine which pass-catcher(s) or running back(s) you should pair with the quarterback. It highlights which players tend to produce at their ceiling at the same time. It's also a good way to create a contrarian lineup to gain leverage on opponents in GPPs - if you stack players with negative correlations, it's likely that you'll stick out from the rest of the pack.

In this article, we'll use Fantasy Labs to take a look at correlations among every fantasy-relevant player in the Super Bowl to help you win some money. We'll also highlight any interesting combinations to help you decide which players to stack in your single slate lineup. We'll focus on the DraftKings Showdown slate and include two contrarian lineups to help you take down a large-field tournament. Let's finish off the 2020 NFL season on a high note!

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DFS Correlations: Super Bowl LV

Kansas City Chiefs

	Correlation
Player	Edwards-Helaire	Williams	Bell	Hill	Watkins	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Mahomes	-0.38	-0.29	0.09	0.49	0.07	0.47	0.45	-0.21	0.24	-0.46
	Williams	Bell	Hill	Watkins	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Edwards-Helaire	0.23	0.10	-0.56	0.67	-0.41	-0.04	0.40	-0.17	-0.09
	Bell	Hill	Watkins	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Williams	-0.90	-0.05	-0.14		-0.05	-0.63	-0.90	-0.16
	Hill	Watkins	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Bell	-0.18	0.68	-0.05	0.08	0.36	0.09	-0.22
	Watkins	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Hill	-0.07	-0.05	0.14	-0.64	0.10	-0.16
	Hardman	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Watkins	-0.12	-0.38	N/A	-0.30	-0.10
	Robinson	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Hardman	0.23	-0.40	-0.02	0.35
	Pringle	Kelce	Chiefs
Robinson	0.30	0.23	-0.35
	Kelce	Chiefs
Pringle	-0.43	N/A
	Chiefs
Kelce	-0.60

 

Observations

• The strongest correlation for Mahomes is with Hill (0.49) and one of Hardman (0.47) and Robinson (0.45).
  • If Watkins plays (0.07), you should limit this to a Mahomes + Hill stack.
  • If Robinson is out, Hardman becomes even more appealing.
  • Since Mahomes is a core play, it's best to avoid CEH (-0.38), Bell (0.09), and Williams (-0.29).
• Hardman has the strongest correlation with Chiefs DST (0.35), which makes sense because of his role as the team's kick and punt returner.
• If you decide to fade Mahomes to be contrarian, you can roll with CEH and Watkins (0.67).
  • You can also go with Kelce in this build because of his consistency and ability to produce even when Mahomes does not reach his ceiling.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

	Correlation
Player	Fournette	Jones	Godwin	Evans	Brown	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Brady	-0.22	0.32	0.67	0.41	0.48	0.39	0.06	0.32	-0.01	-0.13
	Jones	Godwin	Evans	Brown	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Fournette	-0.36	-0.21	0.35	-0.20	-0.12	-0.32	-0.13	0.36	0.27
	Godwin	Evans	Brown	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Jones	-0.09	0.07	0.15	-0.15	0.68	0.51	-0.07	0.22
	Evans	Brown	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Godwin	0.27	0.79	0.16	-0.12	0.19	-0.10	-0.10
	Brown	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Evans	-0.06	-0.01	-0.21	0.37	0.27	0.04
	Miller	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Brown	-0.19	N/A	-0.15	-0.33	-0.11
	Johnson	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Miller	N/A	-0.02	-0.30
	Gronk	Brate	Bucs
Johnson	0.46	-0.39	N/A
	Brate	Bucs
Gronk	-0.32	0.45
	Bucs
Brate	-0.44

 

Observations

• The strongest correlation for Brady is with Godwin (0.67) and Brown (0.48).
  • Godwin correlates with Brown (0.79) more than Evans (0.27).
  • Since Brady is a core play, it's best to avoid Fournette (-0.22), but you can consider Jones (0.32).
• Fournette has the strongest correlation with Bucs DST (0.27), so if you think that the Bucs win this game, it might be a good idea to pair the two.
  • This is a good option if you fade Brady since both Fournette (-0.22) and Bucs DST (-0.13) have negative correlations.
  • You can also pair Fournette with Evans (0.35), who is the main downfield and red-zone threat, or Brate (0.36), who has outproduced Gronk throughout this postseason.
  • Evans correlates well with Brate (0.27), so you could even roster all three.

 

Sample DFS lineups

Lineup 1: Chiefs Blowout Game Script

• CPT: Mahomes ($18,000)
• FLEX: Hardman ($5,600)
• FLEX: Chiefs ($2,600)
• FLEX: Evans ($8,400)
• FLEX: Fournette ($7,800)
• FLEX: Brate ($4,800)

This build features the strongest correlation with Chiefs DST in Hardman, so it's banking on a return touchdown or some sacks and turnovers along with a big Hardman game. It also includes the Evans + Fournette + Brate combination. This lineup would be contrarian because it does not feature Brady, Hill, or Kelce. It's betting on a Chiefs win by double-digits in a game that goes under the 56-point total.

 

Lineup 2: Bucs Onslaught (Bucs win game script)

• CPT: Brady ($15,000)
• FLEX: Godwin ($8,800)
• FLEX: Brown ($6,200)
• FLEX: Jones ($2,200)
• FLEX: Mahomes ($12,000)
• FLEX: Hardman ($5,600)

This build is banking on a Bucs win with Brady reaching his ceiling. Godwin and Brown (0.79) have the strongest correlation among Bucs' wide receivers, so it makes sense to pair them here. Jones (0.32) goes well with Brady and would have a positive game script here with the Bucs playing with a lead. This lineup also gets a piece of the Chiefs' action by pairing Mahomes with Hardman. It would also be contrarian because it fades Kelce and Hill.

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