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For those who profited off of some Super Bowl bets, Monday offers of some favorable props to help continue the streak. With an eight game slate, there are going to be situations where certain props look too good to be true, and without proper research, they are the ultimate trap bets. For example, Andre Drummond has been posting double-digit rebounds with ease almost the entire season, but playing against teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks, the team dynamic made it significantly more difficult for him.
Teams will gameplan differently based on who they are playing, but some teams just focus their attention naturally to certain things. For the Knicks, Bucks, and other teams that dedicate their energy towards defense, even some of the best rebounders will need a good bit of luck to help hit some of the rebounding overs against them.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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HOU @ CHA
Gordon Hayward (CHA) LESS 22.5 Points - John Wall (HOU) MORE 20.5 Points
LaMelo Ball has officially stolen the show in Charlotte. Eventually his name will replace Gordon Haywards in most of the Hornets point props, but in terms of primary and secondary scoring, a secondary role could be what Hayward needs to find some consistency. For an All-Star that scores below 20 points regularly, the absence of his stats is more noticeable every game Ball outscores him. The momentum is shifting in Ball's favor, but even if Hayward has his fair share of attempts, the Rockets defense has let up the fewest points per game over their previous 10 and it's hard to trust inconsistency in a game where points will already be scarce.
For John Wall facing the Hornets defense, the same type of doubt for Hayward just isn't present on this side. If anything, Wall taking on a scorers role and passing less means that a 21-point over feels as as safe as ever. There isn't anyone in that backcourt other than Terry Rozier that can keep up with Wall's offense, and even if he isn't shooting, Wall will produce mostly in the paint.
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TOR @ MEM
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 20.5 Points - Fred Vanvleet (TOR) LESS 20.5
Since returning, Ja Morant has yet to score 20 points. His averages are still looking great and the way he spreads the ball, his point guard skills have drastically improved and it seems that his development has taken a sharp curve in the right direction. Even with his shot attempts tapering off slightly, it's hard to see him taking a back role every night. Since Memphis has lost their last three games after winning four straight, two of those losses being against the Pelicans and Rockets, they need Morant's general offense to help them bounce back.
Fred VanVleet posted a career-high six days ago, and anyone who normally watches VanVleet knows it was a semi-fluke. Yes, he has been known to hit outside shots and there have been many instances where VanVleet has carried the scoring all on his own, just not like that. He simply wasn't missing and he was surprising himself with his incredibly efficiency. The Grizzlies won't post a huge threat and it's hard to see VanVleet needing to score a ton of points to get an early lead.
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MIN @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 28.5 Points - Malik Beasley (MIN) MORE 19.5
This will be one of the higher scoring games because of the lack of defense, but with how the Timberwolves team is made up, the point total bets are actually the least enticing. Luka Doncic is always set for a 30-point outing and Malik Beasley has forced himself into the offensive spotlight, averaging 22 points over the last two weeks. The biggest problem checking in on the prop lines this morning is that almost every player has seen at least a one stat increase for their over/unders.
The upside for both in terms of scoring is there, but looking beyond the points, players like Naz Reid is still good for another high-rebound game, but players like Ricky Rubio can't really be trusted to hit seven-assists on any given night. Even against a bad defense, it's tough demanding production out of Rubio, even when he does see a minutes increase.
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GSW @ SAS
Stephen Curry (GSW) LESS 30.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) LESS 21.5
There have been few players shooting as impact-fully as Stephen Curry is right now. Everyone knows the Warriors are a shell of what they were, but Curry is not letting that be the narrative surrounding the team. This team looks like a playoff team in the West, and the problem with this game will be how successfully can the Spurs shut down Curry's offense. Curry doesn't care what defense you throw at him, but doubling him on most possessions will turn his scoring output into mush.
For DeMar DeRozan, it's a similar situation. The defense doesn't matter, but if DeRozan isn't hitting from the outside, he doesn't provide anything but drive-and-dish offense. Great for the Spurs and the flow of their dynamic, but terrible for prop bets. Since he has been filling the stat sheet recently and will face some athletic defenders, it's no doubt he will score, it just won't be a typical night where he hits 22 without a problem.
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CLE @ PHO
Devin Booker (PHO) MORE 23.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 22.5
After playing his best game of the season, Devin Booker is set up for two big games in two nights. Chris Paul has fallen off quickly after having HIS best game of the season, and Booker is the only one their to pick up the extra usage. Regardless of how Paul plays, Booker needs to score and despite his team playing well and providing more than enough support, on the second night of a back-to-back, it's an easy bet to say Booker will be the one with the ball in his hands for most of the night.
Phoenix' defense has improved and even someone like Collin Sexton has to take note of what exactly he will be running into when he drives. Deandre Ayton is exactly an elite rim protector, but he's a big body coupled with physical defenders that love watching their matchup pass out of the paint. Sexton will score, but he's going to have to do it from the outside rather than trying to consistently drive against a tall, athletic team.
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OKC @ LAL
LeBron James (LAL) LESS 25.5 Points - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) LESS 21.5
This is my favorite game of the night, mainly because of some of the other props in this game. Both LeBron James and Shai gilgeous-Alexander have seen increases to their prop lines, not to mention James is one of the hardest players to bet on based on how he plays. James scores when he wants to, even though he wants to involve his team and not be the only one shooting. This defense only has Al Horford in the paint, so the scoring might just come too naturally for him.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is too important to this offense and one of the one few bright spots on this team. With some of the other props, like Anthony Davis hitting 10 rebounds and Alexander hitting six assists, make sure you don't put all your eggs in the James or Gilgeous-Alexander basket. Both players have matchups that don't indicate high-scoring, but still generally productive outings.
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