RADIO
Welcome to the FSWA-nominated Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We now head to second base as we make our way around the diamond for 2021.
Today, we'll look at four second basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.
Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.
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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League
It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at five power bats that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC Online ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.
Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2020 drafts.
Ozzie Albies - 2B, ATL
NFBC DC ADP: 34
Expected Return for a Power+Speed+Average Hitter Drafted 34th: .292 BA, 25 HR, 98 runs, 83 RBI, 19 SB
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .282-27-88-88-14
Analysis: Locking up a top 2B in Albies can feel wonderful thanks to the floor and healthy range of outcomes within Atlanta’s order. There's something to be said for anyone who qualifies under the HR+SB+BA triple cohort, after all. But I’m here to put in perspective what he needs to do with this draft slot to return solid early value. Should you pass on the bigger bats or strong starting pitchers for Albies, who we project to fall short in R+RBI, SB, and average? Probably not.
Unlike DJ LeMahieu, Albies is no lock to bat in the top half of the order -- let alone lead off. We have 88 runs and 88 RBI as he stands to move around some, but may be left primarily batting fifth. I understand that second base feels rather shallow and Albies' stability offers comfort. I hear you. But you appear to be leaving draft capital on the table by leaping to the top of a weaker 2B class. Just because he's one or two on the positional boards doesn't mean he automatically earns a third-round slot.
Verdict: Pass, Albies is overvalued at his current draft slot
Mike Moustakas - 2B, CIN
NFBC Online ADP:127
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 127th: .259-29-76-80-4
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .249-35-76-93-2
Analysis: Moustakas had a down 2020, hitting .230 across just 163 PAs (44 games) -- his lowest BA since 2014’s .212 mark. Of course, a short season unfairly emphasizes slumps and he still delivered a .799 OPS. Moose’s last full season produced a .254/.329/.516 slash and 35 homers in 584 PAs (143 games) for Milwaukee. You can also chalk up Mike as another player who wasn't fond of 2020's play environment.
After what he called a “weird, different season” in 2020, Moustakas eager for a better 2021 with better production and a closer-knit group. https://t.co/3RycbbU2Xc
— Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) February 25, 2021
I'm not quantifying chemistry, but I think we all love Moose swinging at Great American Ballpark. And note that Derek Carty’s THE BAT projects Moose for 36 homers, 84 runs, 97 RBI, and a .253 average as of March 5. I find myself with a ton of Moustakas as he represents the last reliable second-bagger with an above-average power supply. Summer at GABP should be hot for his bat and your team, even if the batting average might leave something to be desired.
Verdict: Target, Moustakas is undervalued at his current draft slot
Cavan Biggio - 2B/OF, TOR
NFBC Online ADP: 191
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 59th: .271-27-87-82-14
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .239-19-92-71-16
Analysis: I’m technically cheating here as Biggio’s projected 19 homers falls one short of the 20HR/9SB threshold for HR+SB, but we’ll spot him a homer since he’s seven steals over the mark as well. That career 16.1% walk rate is a points-league dream but the .240 career average mirrors his minor league track record.
I’m not sure how one projects a big leap in power after Biggio just ranked dead last in maximum exit velocity -- a strong indicator of pop -- out of hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events in 2020. The 103.6-mph mark was joined in the bottom-five by some notorious sluggers:
I can accept Biggio has a swing that works for him and remains more potent than those other low-power names, the launch angle alone points to the lift, but I can’t project much progress. Even with a healthy dose of two-hole batting projections, he may bat sixth somewhat often now that Marcus Semien is there. His projected HR+SB tally of 35 trails the EDV’s 41 mark and then you’re also trading roughly 30 points of batting average. This is not the way.
Verdict: Pass, Biggio is overvalued at his current draft slot
Jonathan Schoop - 2B, DET
NFBC Online ADP: 382
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 382nd: .219-28-62-65-2
2021 RotoBaller Projection: .261-27-65-71-1
Analysis: Schoop’s ADP should rise some as his role in Detroit gets baked in, but EDV shows he’d hold solid draft value towards the 200th pick. That’s quite the margin you’re working with and from the middle infield no less! Schoop’s 2020 ended early after he was hit by a pitch on the wrist in mid-September, but 44 games produced eight homers with 26 runs and 23 RBI.
That 162-game pace makes for nearly 30 homers and 190 R+RBI, which is not what I’m selling you on but we can’t ignore what he’s capable of. The Tigers may not be a frightful lineup, but they still score runs and those hitting at the heart of their order must be respected in our universe.
Still 29 years old, Schoop showed he can produce in Detroit and the Tigers hit him in the valuable two and four slots. You are matching the EDV power expectation without tanking your average with the Adam Dunn-esque mold that history expects from this late power pick.
Verdict: Pass, Schoop is overvalued at his current draft slot
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