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We have an 11-game slate to kick off the weekend and the games are already looking exciting. We have great offensive players taking on skilled defenses in the case of the Wizards-Knicks, while Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson face off in what is sure to be a matchup we will see in future playoffs. It may not be a surprise that the Pelicans-Mavericks have one of the highest point totals tonight, but what is surprising is the game that holds the top spot.
Even though the Jazz seemed committed to slow pace and defense over the past few years, this season their team makeup and dynamic has been focused around kicking that pace into a higher gear. They are hitting shots better than some of the top shooting teams and it's hard not view the Jazz as one of the best in the league right now. They face Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight, and despite that being a tough matchup, he will just be the main foundational piece in what should be a very high-scoring game for both teams. Jordan Clarkson has captained the second unit and his scoring has been a key component in jumpstarting the offense on a nightly basis.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com continues to be ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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MIN @ CHA
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) MORE 22.5 Points - Gordon Hayward (CHA) LESS 21.5 Points
Last night, Karl-Anthony Towns was at 21.5 and Gordon Hayward was at 20.5. The increase is good if you took the over on both last night, and even today it's still looking promising. Despite the inconsistency and ridicule Hayward gets on a daily basis, he still is more than capable of posting big nights. The problem is that there is no pattern or method to this madness. He plays well when he plays well and you can't really count on him to actually play well against bad teams, that's just not how it works.
In this case against the Timberwolves, there's a great chance his midrange will be utilized and the Minnesota defense will scramble to adjust to that type of playmaking. For Towns, facing the Charlotte frontcourt is easily one of the best teams to play against when returning to action. If he plays and doesn't need to be eased back in, it's hard to not like the idea of Towns scoring close to 23-24 point tonight after scoring 18 points on 15 shots his first game back.
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NYK @ WAS
Russell Westbrook (WAS) LESS 25.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 23.5
Julius Randle has seen a two point jump since last night and after a unimpressive scoring effort last time out, his shooting woes clearly caused frustration. He was missing shots he normally hits and he kept trying to force plays against a defense that was ready for anything. The Wizards frontcourt does play physically and they will put a body on other players, but Randle thrives in situations where he can control the physicality in the paint and post areas.
This one is a bit more tricky. My gut tells me that even though Westbrook won't be looking to score every possession, it'll happen anyway. The Knicks defense is great, but we've seen what great offensive players do to great defenses. Bradley Beal will have a better performance than last time and that means Westbrook is more on path for a modest triple-double than high scoring game, but we all have a general understanding that if anyone can score on any given night, it's Westbrook.
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NOP @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 28.5 Points - Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 24.5
The addition of Maxi Kleber does more than just help with the teams rebounding. His defense isn't stellar, but it is impactful enough to force bigs away from the rim, limit their rebounds, and most importantly, provide any source of decent help-side defense. Zion Williamson is no joke in the paint. He uses his body unlike other players, but that doesn't mean he is going to score 25 points on this frontcourt. He'll need the rest of his teammates to open up space for him to have a great game.
For Doncic, it's just about whether or not he is actually hitting shots that night. As someone who respects the Pelicans defense, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Steven Adams, and others that provide support on both ends of the court, that's just not saying much against someone like Doncic. Sure, his rebounds may be limited and you can close out on his teammates to limit his assists, but if you can't find a way to take away his step back or his offensive skill-set, it will be a long night of hoping if you bet the under.
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LAC @ CHI
Kawhi Leonard (LAC) MORE 28.5 Points - Zach LaVine (CHI) MORE 28.5
This game is easy to avoid as well, but there is one thing that should be noted. Zach LaVine's point totals were at 30.5 for most of the night last night. It wasn't until this morning that it dropped to 28.5, and even though LaVine is more than capable of going nuclear against a defense that should stop everything thrown at them, it's hard to bet against someone playing so well, that really doesn't even need to win to produce.
The same can be said for Kawhi Leonard as well, although his point total has remained steady all night, which makes sense. The biggest concern is will the game stay close enough for Leonard to hit 30. but the same thing can be said about the last time we bet on Leonard. The Clippers need his offense to build any type of lead against any opponent. As long as he is the go-to guy with no competition, the shot attempts will be there.
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OKC @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points - Hamidou Diallo (OKC) LESS 17.5
Looking at Nikola Jokic first, it's hard to see a lot of promise here. The Nuggets are playing well on both ends of the court which means production will likely come from elsewhere. Second, Jokic is lining up against Al Horford, a solid defender, and lastly the Thunder are somewhat terrible and can't keep games close without the help of their best players. This game is not looking good from a competitive standpoint, but let's ignore that narrative and assume it stays close. Despite Horford being a good defender, he can't stop Jokic from scoring even though the Thunder defense will have a much easier time with their matchups.
Much in the case of Hamidou Diallo. As an athletic defender, he won't have a problem keeping up physically with the Nuggets, but scoring isn't his strong suit and he seems to be capped at around 15 points. The safe bet is the under since Diallo doesn't space the floor well, but any lapse in defense from the Nuggets and Diallo will be the first to make them pay.
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