Jon Anderson's Second Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

Happy drafting season everybody! We are back with another tiered ranking look, this time at second base. You can read about first base here.

The way I went about this was to use current projections for each player and then average out each player's percentile rank in each of the five standard rotisserie categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG). I then tiered these players off based on those numbers, but also with some of my own interventions. Because this is mainly based on current projections (and it's mid-February at the time of this writing), you may be surprised at where some of these names are showing up. The projections may sharpen up as we enter Spring Training, and the ADP changes quite often this early in draft season, but right now there are some guys being drafted wrong and you can take advantage of that by looking at things strictly from a statistical perspective.

Here's how I see the tiers. At the end of each write-up, I'll give you my "favorite" name from each tier. This is who I like the best at their current ADP.

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Tier 1

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Ozzies Albies	1	33.6	641	90	25	86	14	.280

This probably won't be a common choice, but this fantasy analyst believes that Albies does come in a tier above the rest of the field. There is real five-category potential with Albies, a 30 homers, 20 steal, .300 season I think is within the range of outcomes. You just cannot say that about anybody else, so Albies for me is a cut above the field.

Favorite: Albies

 

Tier 2

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
DJ LeMahieu	2	28.6	683	97	21	76	7	.292
Whit Merrifield	3	36.5	691	93	16	67	24	.281

This is not a far falloff from tier one, and you can see that LeMahieu is actually the top second baseman off the board on average. You are paying about the same cost for these guys as you are for Albies, but you are giving up at least one category with both guys. LeMahieu could match Albies in power, but he's a handful of homers behind in most projection systems. He overcomes that a bit with a higher projected batting average but also lags behind in steals, which solidifies him as the number two second baseman in my view.

Then there is Merrifield who just keeps having really solid fantasy seasons. He could very well prove to be the most valuable second baseman as well if he keeps stealing bases and hitting for a solid batting average. He actually showcased increased power in the short 2020 season, hitting a home run every 29 plate appearances (his number was 46 in 2019). His ceiling is much lower than the two guys ahead of him, but he's a fine pick where he's currently going.

Favorite: LeMahieu

 

Tier 3

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Keston Hiura	4	68.3	601	77	29	85	11	.252
Ketel Marte	5	81.6	666	92	21	80	7	.287
Jose Altuve	6	101.2	673	94	23	82	11	.277
Mike Moustakas	7	121.9	620	83	35	97	3	.249

This is our first big drop. You can see the ADP changes drastically, as Hiura leads the way going at pick 68 on average. In terms of upside, there is a lot of it here. Hiura could lead the entire league in HR+SB if things go his way, but more likely he is going to really crush your batting average with his 30%+ strikeout rate.

We are basically looking at guys with some kind of serious deficiency now. In 2020 we saw Marte's power disappear, Moustakas struggle to stay healthy and hit for another low batting average, and we saw Altuve completely fall apart everywhere. Hiura is probably the only one here that can flirt with 20 steals, so by this point in the draft the second base position is really starting to dry up.

Favorite: Hiura

 

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jeff McNeil	8	89.9	665	89	19	75	8	.284
Cavan Biggio	9	59.4	634	88	20	67	13	.235

You can make a case for these two being included in tier three, but I personally don't see it in a standard league. Neither of these guys does anything elite, and in Biggio's case, he could really crush your batting average while not making up for it with homers. McNeil brings a great batting average to the table, and Biggio should benefit from that improved Blue Jays' offense, but I'm not too interested in these high price tags and would prefer to live in tier three or above.

Favorite: McNeil

 

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Max Muncy	10	95.2	615	86	30	82	3	.232
Brandon Lowe	11	71.4	579	75	25	75	6	.247
Jean Segura	12	190.4	624	77	16	74	10	.281

This is probably the lowest tier you'll be seeing Brandon Lowe in, but he comes with just so much risk. He brought the strikeouts down last year but they were still at a high 26%. He did showcase a lot of raw power, so he could end up dusting that 25 homer projection, but I just don't see any safety at this point. He is clearly the top guy in tier five, and maybe he does deserve to be in tier four, but the price is much too high in my opinion.

That said, this tier doesn't look much different than tier four. Segura is a brutally boring player to roster that doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he does chip in across the board and provides some rarely found strong batting average late in the draft. Given that he may end up in the bottom third of the batting order, he should probably be bumped down to tier six, but I'm going to keep him here for now just because he gives you steals and batting average without being a crater anywhere else.

Favorite: Muncy

 

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Nick Madrigal	13	191.4	553	66	7	57	20	.304
Dylan Moore	14	113.5	498	56	15	52	22	.225
David Fletcher	15	221.5	666	81	9	59	8	.278

And this is where the craters really set in. Moore is a solid option for steals and some upside, but the signs are pointing towards a very low batting average while not doing much in counting stats. He could be among the league leaders in steals, which makes him an interesting pick here, but chances are you'll be underwhelmed by him this year.

Then you have the two batting average specialists in Madrigal and Fletcher. I'm not sure where the .278 projection for Fletcher is coming from after he's hit .290 and .319 the last two seasons with a crazy high 92% contact rate, but even if we bump that up he still doesn't make a huge fantasy impact with how little power he brings to the table.

Madrigal is pretty much the same guy as Fletcher except with more steals. He could lead the league in batting average while chipping in 20 steals, which makes him a guy you want to start in fantasy, but if he bats ninth all year he is unlikely to help you in any other category, which justifies this low tier ranking.

Favorite: Madrigal

 

Tier 7

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Nick Solak	16	168.5	556	65	17	65	9	.265
Andres Gimenez	17	181.4	429	49	10	48	18	.260
Jonathan Villar	18	144.2	424	54	11	43	22	.253
Chris Taylor	19	217.7	592	72	17	69	8	.246
Ryan McMahon	20	245.0	533	63	20	67	4	.249
Cesar Hernandez	21	363.1	567	67	10	53	6	.270
Kolten Wong	22	366.6	550	65	11	53	14	.254

These are the longer-shot guys here. You have some steals here in Villar and Gimenez, but they have playing time questions. You have a young player in Solak that could potentially be average across the board, but that's also a pretty big "if." Then you have other guys with extremely low ceilings that only really contribute in one or two categories.

Favorite: Solak

 

Rundown

• The only second baseman with any real probability of being a five-category stud is Albies, so you could potentially get really far ahead of the field if you draft him and he has a huge year.
• The top three names all project pretty similarly, and then there's a big drop off after that. Given how ugly the position is after tier two, it makes sense to prioritize one of the top three guys.
• After the top three are gone, I think it makes sense to just play for upside. You will have trouble finding a guy you want to start all year long after the top names are gone, so you might as well go for broke with a big upside name like Hiura, Lowe, or Dylan Moore.
• Alternatively, you could just sit on your hands for a while and take Madrigal or Fletcher late to shore up your batting average. That would be a huge hit to your team's power projection, so that's only a viable strategy if you have a few 40+ homer guys already rostered elsewhere.
• If you're in a league with a middle infield spot, it makes much more sense to fill that spot with a shortstop as that position is way deeper than second base. If you use a premium pick on one of the top three names here, it probably makes sense to just ignore the second base position until late in the draft and then back your stud up with a tier six or seven player.

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