RADIO
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! We welcome in the first Tuesday of March with a six-game schedule on the NBA calendar. With the All-Star game right around the corner, there will be some interesting lineup decisions coming our way this week. Will coaches lean on the side of caution with their players nursing nagging injuries, or throw that caution to the wind and hope they can rest up over the break? As always, and especially this year, late scratches can massively impact a contest. So keep an eye on those late-developing lineups.
The two games to highlight tonight are the Memphis-Washington and Denver-Milwaukee contests. Both boast an over/under more than 235 points and feature some of the league's fastest-paced teams. The Wizards are playing exceptionally speedy these days. They average 106.2 possessions per game on the year and 104.6 over the last 10 days. Load up on their matchup with the Grizzlies and the clash between the Nuggets and Bucks if you want a successful evening of DFS.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 3/2/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Ja Morant - PG, MEM at WAS ($7,000)
BUY THE DIP! Ja Morant has not flashed his usual brilliance over the last 10 days, and he's now sitting at his lowest price of the 2020-21 campaign on DraftKings. Although more talented and higher-ceiling players populate the player pool tonight, it's going to be tough to ignore this Grizzlies-Wizards contest.
While Morant struggles over the last four games (33.2 fantasy points per game), his $7,000 price tag feels appropriate and keeps him in that five-time return range that everyone wants to see from their DFS players. The matchup is tantalizing because the Wizards allow the ninth-most DraftKings points to point guards (49.43), and this is the highest over/under on the schedule. This won't be the last time I bring up this game in today's picks!
Derrick Rose - PG/SG. NY at SA ($5,900)
As a basketball fan, it's great to see Derrick Rose play meaningful basketball again. As a dynasty manager with Immanuel Quickley on his team, it's extremely frustrating to watch Rose handle more minutes than the rookie. And as a DFS player, I don't care because points are points, no matter where they come from.
Regardless of all those viewpoints, Rose has a fantastic matchup against San Antonio tonight. The Spurs allow 52.37 FPPG to points guards, the second-worst mark in the league. The veteran guard should also get a bulk on Tuesday's minutes with Elfrid Payton (hamstring) still on the injury report. Over his last four games, the 2011 MVP is averaging 16.3 points, 7.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers. He's returned at least five-times his salary in all four tilts and hit eight-times his cost in two of those four.
Kendrick Nunn - PG, MIA vs. ATL ($5,500)
I love the Miami backcourt scenario tonight. Jimmy Butler (knee) is currently questionable for the game, and if he's able to take the court, Nunn gets taken off the board. However, DFS managers can pivot up $100 to Goran Dragic and still gain an advantage against a Hawks defense, allowing the fifth-most FPPG to point guards. Let's move forward assuming that Butler sits one more game. It opens the door for Nunn to return to his high-flying, DFS-points-getting ways that he showed us over the last few weeks.
On Sunday, in the first game of this mini, two-game set with the Hawks, Nunn blew up the box score. The sophomore guard scored 24 points with seven assists, three rebounds, a block, a steal, and four triples in 33 minutes. It all added up to 44.25 fantasy points and a contest-winning performance for many DFS players. If Butler sits again, Nunn is an excellent play as a secondary, offensive option in the Heat's backcourt.
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF/C, MIL vs. DEN ($11,000)
Despite winning back-to-back MVP awards, it feels like the basketball is almost underrating Antetokounmpo. However, in the DFS world, Giannis is still totaling phenomenal numbers and averaging 58.2 FPPG this season. Recently, he’s really picked it up a notch and scored at least 60 DraftKings points in nine of 10 games, including five efforts beyond the 70-point mark.
The Nuggets aren’t a slouch versus power forwards and centers, however. They allow the 10th and second-fewest fantasy points to those positions, respectively.
While Atetokounmpo is the most expensive player on the schedule, I am willing to pay up for the kind of floor he provides night to night. The matchup with Denver isn't ideal by any means, but the Bucks have the highest implied team total (121.25 points) by Vegas, and they won't reach that number without a reliable night from their five-time All-Star.
Michael Porter Jr. - SF/PF, DEN at MIL ($6,700)
For a mid-range value in a forward slot, I am looking towards MPJ. Over his last three games, the 22-year old is averaging 18.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.3 threes while shooting 61.8 percent from the field and 52.6 percent from deep. The sophomore has hit five-times his value in each of those three games and is coming off his second-best DFS game since his return from COVID-19.
The high total, the run-it-back option with Giannis, and Porter Jr's recent form all add to a great DFS play tonight. The $6,700 cost could get tricky to fit if you load up at other positions, but paying up for the rising star is going to be a positive addition for your team tonight.
Davis Bertans - SF/PF, WAS vs. MEM ($4,700)
If you would like to increase your risk profile and volatility on Tuesday, look no further than adding Davis Bertans to your DFS roster. The 28-year old has had some up-and-down performances lately, and it makes his DFS performances hard to project on a nightly basis. He's averaging 29.75 fantasy points in his last two games, but in the three matchups before that, he COMBINED for 34.75 points. This is the life you live if you decide to roster Bertans, and I'm willing to spin the wheel on Tuesday.
The Grizzlies are the third-worst defense versus small forwards and ninth-toughest defense versus power forwards. That doesn't matter too much to me because I'm specifically looking at their three-point defense when it comes to Bertans. Memphis allows 2.54 triples per game to the power forward spot, ranking eighth-worst in the league. That is where the 28-year old is going to make his money on Tuesday. Like we always say in NBA DFS: You live by the Bertans, you die by the Bertans.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Jakob Poeltl - C, SA vs. NY ($6,100)
Despite LaMarcus Aldridge returning to the Spurs rotation, Poeltl is still producing for daily fantasy. Furthermore, he gets to face a bottom-10 defense versus centers in the New York Knicks and is in fine form at the center position. Since returning from the Spur's 10-day COVID-19 hiatus, Poeltl is averaging 31.1 FPPG. It may not be the most attractive game or matchup, but the Spurs are giving their Austrian big man a chance to contribute, and he is rewarding them night in and night out.
Most of his contributions come on the defensive end, but I think that could boost him a bit more tonight. The Knicks play through their All-Star Julius Randle, and the one-on-one contests throughout the evening could allow Poeltl to accumulate a lot of blocks and rebounds if the chance presents itself. San Antonio is still missing some key players, which will continue this trend of their European center being a useful DFS option.
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