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The 2021 season is so close to starting, which means it is time for some bold predictions. It appears the season will still be a complete 162 games, with no NL DH and a standard playoff format. The bouncy ball will supposedly be replaced with a ball designed to limit power, fun times like usual from Manfred. Other than that, business as usual, haha.
This will be my first year writing bold predictions for RotoBaller. I am looking forward to the backlash from some of the predictions since they are bold and should not be that simple to accomplish. Remember, these bold predictions are based on fantasy baseball, not 100% real-life baseball.
With that said, let’s have some fun, get ready for another baseball season, and enjoy my 2021 fantasy baseball bold predictions.
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Juan Soto wins the Triple Crown
The 22-year-old Soto continues to get better and better each season, and 2021 will be no different. After a 2020 season that saw Soto hit .351 with 13 home runs in only 47 games, Soto will have an even better season in 2021. He will finish as the National League Triple Crown winner. He has proven he can hit for average, drive in runs, and hit for power.
Some deeper metrics support the increase in his overall stats. He has seen his hard-hit rate increase from 47.8% in 2019 to 51.6% in 2020 and his barrel rate increase from 12.3% to 18.3%. The quality of contact has continued to rise, supporting a continuous rise in Soto’s overall power production. Soto’s overall contact rates have improved over the last two seasons while his chase rates have fallen. In 2020, he saw his usual 20% strikeout rate even fall to 14.3%, while his regular walk rate around 16% rose to 20.9%.
Soto’s power continues to improve, his plate discipline is off the chart for a 22-year-old, and the offense around him will be much improved in 2021. With Victor Robles and Trea Turner setting the table in from of him and Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell behind Soto, the offensive production will be off the chart. Soto will be the NL MVP and a triple crown winner in 2021.
Marcus Stroman finishes as a top-20 fantasy baseball SP
Stroman opted out of the 2020 season and is coming off a 2019 season where he finished with a 3.22 ERA and 3.99 xFIP. His groundball rate dropped to 53.7%, which was the lowest of his career but increased his strikeout rate to 20.5%, which was his highest since 2014. He was also traded in the middle of the 2019 season, and that is where a lot of the intrigue begins for the 2021 season.
Once Stroman joined the Mets, his groundball rate dropped, but his strikeout rate rose to the enjoyment of fantasy owners. Some of the strikeout increase was thanks to a pitch mix change, using his sinker more than his cutter and utilizing the slider in strikeout opportunities. Now fast forward to 2021 with that pitch mix change, and the addition of a new pitch, a split changeup, and the sky is the limit. The Mets also improved their defense behind Storman significantly. Big season ahead for Stroman as he knocks off that giant chip on his shoulder.
Victor Robles outperforms Luis Robert
Some players we all just can’t quit and Victor Robles is one of those players for me. The 23-year-old, yes, only 23, is in line for a big 2021 season. The Nationals want Robles to lead off, and if he does, that increases his value in a big way. Robles is just a season removed from a .255-17-86-65-28 stat line, and that was hitting further down the order most games. Now you move him up the order, and the sky is the limit.
Hitting in front of Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Josh Bell should lead to great pitches to hit and many chances to score runs. Robles currently has an ADP of 120, nearly 90 picks behind Robert at 33. Robles has an ATC projection of .248-15-75-58-21, which is likely not factoring the lineup shift to leadoff. I would not be shocked if Robles slugs 20 home runs, steal 30+ bases, and scores over 100 runs. A stat line like that for Robles will soar past Robert, likely hitting farther down the White Sox lineup.
Joey Gallo hits 50+ home runs to lead MLB
Joey Gallo had a dreadful 2020 season hitting ten home runs while hitting .181. There have been reports that Gallo was battling an injury while pitchers were also attacking him differently; obviously, the pitchers won. Nothing like a bit of offseason to allow the body to heal. Gallo has looked healthy and great this spring. He is hitting over .300 with all the power back in that big bat. He will hit in the middle of the Rangers lineup and should have plenty of chances to leave the ballpark.
In 2017 and 2018, he played 145 and 148 games, resulting in 41 and 40 home runs. Those were his most games played and most home runs in any season of baseball. He is healthy now, and playing 150+ games will do wonders for this bold prediction. Lastly, even if he does not hit 50, he will lead the league in home runs. With the new baseball coming into play, the overall home run total may be down, and some hitters may lose a few home runs, not Gallo, as a few feet off his home runs will not affect the big man. Welcome back, Joey Gallo.
Nick Senzel is the new Trent Grisham
Many have been way too excited about Trent Grisham heading into the 2021 draft season. Sure he is a good ballplayer, but his ADP of 70 as the 17 outfielders off the board is a bit much. Last season, Grisham went 10/10 with a .251 average. The offensive production should be good with San Diego, but not out of this world. Enter Nick Senzel.
Senzel is slated to play every day for the Reds, and that is music to fantasy player’s ears. Now just stay healthy! In 2019, Senzel played 104 games and hit 12 home runs while stealing 14 bases. Senzel has a legit 20/20 upside, maybe even a 25/25 upside. That is the type of upside everyone wants from Grisham and what they are drafting for this season. Except with Senzel, you can wait for 130 or so picks later as Senzel has an ADP around 215. Senzel will out-produce Grisham, and this time next year will be drafted the way Grisham is this season.
Marlins finish with the best starting rotation in the NL East
I know, I know. The Braves have Max Fried, Ian Anderson, and veterans like Charlie Morton. The Phillies have Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin. The Mets have one of the best in all of baseball in Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and eventually Noah Syndergaard. Lastly, the Nationals have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin. These are some loaded pitching staffs, loaded top-end of pitching staffs. The difference is the Marlins can be marvelous from top to bottom in their starting rotations.
The Marlins starting five consists of Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcantara, Elieser Hernandez, Sixto Sanchez, and Trevor Rogers. Not one of these arms is over 26 years old. The Marlins rotation is a loaded, young group of arms. The Marlins have some innings eaters in Lopez and Alcantara, some upside in Sanchez and Hernandez, and a potential flame-throwing lefty phenom in Rogers. The young arms will pitch half of their games in one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, which will help. The last point is that the top of the rotation has improved each of the previous few seasons and looks to take a jump to the next level. When looking at the top two or three arms, it may be tough to beat some of the other rotations in the east, but one through five, the Marlins will be the best.
Joey Votto hits 25+ home runs and is a top-20 fantasy 1B
Votto has been the victim of age shaming when it comes to the 2021 draft season. Over the last month, the 37-year-old Votto has been drafted as the 33 first baseman off the board with an ADP of 338. That draft price is just wrong. After back-to-back seasons where Votto only hit 12 and 15 home runs while playing in 142 and 145 games, he bounced back nicely with 11 home runs in just 54 games in 2020. He sacrificed batting average (only .226) for power.
There were reports that Votto changed his stance and approach at the plate to hit with more power and the reports were quite evident when looking at the stats. Votto’s pull percentage rose 5% to 40%, and we know more barreled balls when pulled lead to the best chance of home runs. Speaking of barrels, Votto raised his barrel rate to 9.1% compared to the 6.9% in each of the previous two seasons. His xStats were strong as well, including his xBA of .253 compared to his BA of .226. Votto was hitting it very well in 2020, still walking over 16% of the time, and there should be no reason why he can’t produce again in 2021. His ADP is terrible, and Votto will prove it is by finishing as a Top 20 1B.
Ty France hits .280 with 25+ home runs, finishing as a top-five 2B
When France was traded to the Mariners, I was giddy as anyone knowing France had a chance for everyday playing time in the coming seasons. He was good in 2020, only hitting four home runs, but did manage to hit .305. France also had an 8.5% barrel rate, a .437 xwOBAcon, but weirdly a hard-hit rate of only 29.8%. The HH rate was down from 42.6% in 2019. In 2020, France also saw his flyball rate drop to 19%, while his line drive rate rose 11.6% to 33.7%. IF the flyball rate returns to 25%+ and the barrel rate stays the same or even better, France will go on a home-run tear. He has been crushing homer after homer in spring training and seems to be ready to prove me right. France can bring some crazy upside and is free in drafts for a fantasy position that is not overly loaded with power.
Gleyber Torres = top-five in AL MVP voting
Those that have followed me a while know just how down I was on Torres last season. Those same followers have listened to recent Benched with Bubba episodes and understand my newfound love for Torres. Torres had a down 2020, no hiding that. Torres hit .243 with only three home runs and only a 3.7% barrel rate. A lot of Torres’s problems surrounded his lack of aggressiveness at the plate. His swing rates were down over 10% in and out of the zone. Being aggressive is a significant part of Torres’s offensive success. The aggressiveness returned in the postseason, where Torres hit .434 with two home runs over seven games.
He has spoken out on his issues and the attempts to fix the problem over the offseason, and it shows a bit this spring with three extra-base hits (two home runs) and even a stolen base. Torres had a statline of .278-38-96-90-5 in 2019. A return to a stat line similar, maybe 40+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases, could lead to a strong AL MVP campaign. Sign me up.
Eugenio Suarez finishes with more HR than any other SS
Yep, I had to throw this in with the news of Suarez playing SS this season. Even if he doesn’t play the whole season at SS, he will likely qualify at the position, which could raise his fantasy value. Suarez hit 34 home runs in 2018, 49 in 2019, and 15 in 2020. He has continually put up strong power numbers year after year, and there is no reason to think that is going to stop.
Now to see where he stacks up in the home run department at SS. In 2019 Alex Bregman led the position with 41, followed by Torres’s 38, and Trevor Story with 35. Quick reminder, Suarez hit 49 that season. In 2020 Fernando Tatis Jr. hit 17, and Corey Seager hit 15, while Suarez also hit 15 coming off a shoulder injury. When looking at the ATC projections, there are only two SS projected to hit over 30 home runs, and Tatis with 37 and Story with 32, Suarez is projected to hit 38. He will continue to play his home games in Great American Small Park, and another 40+ home run season is not out of the question. He brings unique power to an already loaded SS position.
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