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Although we technically got Statcast data as soon as the first pitch of the 2021 season was thrown, any good sabermetrician knows that sample size matters. It's still quite early in the season but we can't wait to start digging into the stats, so let's start this year's iteration of the Statcast Hitter Leaderboard by looking at something that requires one good swing of the bat - maximum exit velocity.
Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz can still smash the ball with ungodly power. We know this. What you might not know is that guys like Willi Castro and Tyler Naquin are right behind them on the early Max EV leaderboard. I won't detail those two players because Castro's hard smash was a grounder, he has a mere 35.7% hard-hit rate and he doesn't even have a double or homer this season (he does have a triple). Naquin has been outstanding but his career numbers don't inspire confidence that he can keep it up and he may get squeezed out of playing time if Jesse Winker can stay healthy. Instead, I will review some names on the leaderboard that are unexpected or worth exploring in greater detail to see if this could be an indicator of future success.
For a detailed explanation of why max exit velocity matters, read Alex Chamberlain's excellent writeup here. To quote Alex, "Despite its relative inferiority, you can still see strongly patterned trends between max EV and wOBAcon as well as other measurements of contact quality, including hard-hit rate." Of course, you should also view this excellent podcast detailing some of the early leaders.
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Max Exit Velocity Leaderboard
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
119 Max EV
Ohtani was already eighth on the leaderboard with a 115.2 MPH blast but his laser-beam double on Monday night put him at the top. Only two other players, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, have hit a fly ball or line drive harder than 119 since Statcast was introduced.
It's also worth noting that his average EV on fly balls and line drives is over 100 MPH, ranking 13th. Simply put, he is smacking the crap out of the ball, which is kind of the point of this article. The best stat of all is the 41 plate appearances, putting him fourth on the Angels. He's in the lineup almost every day and should rack up enough counting stats to make him an impact player. Oh, and he's stolen two bases as well. Is it too early to vote for MVP?
Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers
113.9 Max EV
Hitting it hard is sort of Lowe's thing. Despite a total of 257 Major League at-bats spread out over parts of three seasons, he's registered a Max EV in the top-six percentile each of those three seasons, with his 113.9 jack being the lowest. Lowe has mammoth 65-grade raw power, so he simply needs to make more contact and cut down on his early 39% strikeout rate.
Lowe has locked down the first base job already and now, with Ronald Guzman carted off the field the other day and out for the foreseeable future, there is no doubt about playing time. He's been a fantasy boon so far but beware of hot early starts.
The beauty of small samples the #Rangers Nate Lowe edition:
First 5 games
3 HR w/ 14 .381/.409/.857
“OMG HE IS AMAZING”Last 4 games
0-13 w/ 5K
Crickets— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) April 11, 2021
Yermin Mercedes, Chicago White Sox
113.3 Max EV
As if we could go without mentioning the Yerminator... It may not last but Mercedes has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season. With a veteran offensive threat at catcher in Yasmani Grandal and former top-10 draft pick in Zack Collins backing him up, Mercedes wasn't expected to see much playing time. But it has been 28-year-old Mercedes, not 23-year-old top prospect Andrew Vaughn holding down the DH spot most nights thanks to Tony La Russa's reverse ageism.
Mercedes is currently sporting a .500 batting average with a pair of homers and seven RBI while holding down a K-BB% of zero. That's better than it sounds since his 11.1% walk rate is equal to his 11.1% strikeout rate (21.8% is the Major League average for K-rate). There is obviously regression coming but a steady diet of at-bats with great plate discipline and a propensity to hit the ball hard make him a must-add in two-catcher leagues and a streamer in 12-team leagues until he cools down.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
112.7 Max EV
A little farther down the ranks but ahead of noted baseball crushers Miguel Sano and Franmil Reyes, we see Bryan Reynolds. I disavowed any memory of drafting Reynolds in multiple leagues last year after he sank to a .189/.275/.357 slash line and managed all of 15 extra-base hits in 55 games. Of course, he is now pounding the ball and has his slash line at .297/.366/.432.
Although he only has one homer to his name so far, Reynolds' expected stats all resemble or exceed his rookie numbers. His .565 xwoBACON is among the league's best. Despite my saltiness at his resurgence, I have to recommend Reynolds as a waiver wire pickup since he's only 12% rostered across Yahoo leagues and can help across most categories.
Ty France, Seattle Mariners
111.1 Max EV
There was a palpable sense of intrigue as to how France would perform in a regular role after a scorching spring in which he hit .327 with five HR and 11 RBI. Sure enough, he's carried it over with a .324 average over his first 34 at-bats. He's left the park once, which accounts for his 111 MPH knock, but is tattooing the ball on a regular basis.
His 57.1% line drive rate is going to drop significantly but it's a great sign that he is seeing the ball extremely well. France did hit 22 HR across two minor-league levels in 2018 and 27 HR at Triple-A in 2019, so a slight increase in launch angle could lead to a power surge. Vive la France!
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