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We've turned the page to May and the baseball season keeps on chugging along. There's still a ton of ball to be played, but who in their right minds predicted the Giants and Royals holding division leads at this point?
We have another modest slate on tap with just six games on FanDuel's Saturday main slate, but there's plenty of intrigue with the pitching and hitting options. Hitting on the stacks could be a little tough today as the Braves-Blue Jays matchup represents the only game with implied team totals over five runs tonight.
I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 5/1/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. Let's get to it!
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Blake Snell - SD vs. SF ($8,800)
Snell is my pick for cash games, and he has the upside in this spot to be a useful tournament play. For the record, I do like Charlie Morton and Brandon Woodruff today as well - they just have much tougher matchups against the Blue Jays and Dodgers, respectively. Snell has been great in four of his five starts, with the lone sub-30 FD point game coming in a disastrous outing against the Pirates where he lasted just 2/3 of an inning before he got pulled. He has notched at least seven strikeouts and given up two or fewer runs in every other start, and he'll get to face the Giants for the second time tonight. He went for five innings against them back in early April, allowing two hits and two earned runs while striking out eight batters. The Giants have been middle-of-the-pack on offense against southpaws this season and have one of the lower strikeout rates against LHP, but they also hold a very low implied total of just three runs and Snell already showed what he can do to this lineup. Plug-and-play with this matchup.
Alternate Play(s)
Zac Gallen - ARI vs. COL ($9,000)
This may seem way too expensive for Gallen, but check out what he has done so far: 7 IP, 6 K, 1 H vs. ATL (49 FD points), 5.2 IP, 6 K, 4 H, 3 ER vs. CIN (26 FD points), and 4 IP, 8 K, 3 H, 1 ER vs. OAK (33 FD points). He has averaged 2.7 walks per start, but those are some mighty impressive performances against really good offenses. In fact, ATL and CIN both rank in the top-four in wOBA overall this season and they're tied for first in homers. Gallen carries this momentum into a tasty matchup against the flailing Rockies, who have lost five of their last seven and have been atrocious away from Coors Field this season. The Rockies are hitting .198/.263/.280 with an unbelievably-low .082 ISO on the road against RHP this season. Their walk rate is one of the lowest in the bigs, which mitigates one of Gallen's only major flaws. Gallen boasts a nice profile of advanced metrics and has a clear path to a gem of a game today on FanDuel with the Rockies projecting for just 3.4 runs away from home.
GPP Dart-Throw
Griffin Canning - LAA vs. SEA ($6,000)
Canning has flashed tantalizing upside in the past and while we haven't quite seen it yet this season, he's rocking an impressive 87th-percentile Whiff% and he put up at least five strikeouts in both starts where he went at least five innings. His slider and changeup have incredible Whiff%'s of 43.9% and 39.1%, and he throws those pitches a combined 57.6% of the time. Seattle has the 10th-highest strikeout rate against RHP at 25.7% and they're just not an offense to fear in any sense of the word. Canning is certainly worth some stabs at his extremely low price point.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Freddie Freeman - 1B, ATL vs. TOR ($4,100)
Freeman is very expensive after notching games of 31.9, 15.7, and 40.9 FD points, but his zero and 6.5 FD point outings in his last two games may result in some people moving away from him. This isn't advised. The Braves hold the highest implied total on the slate against the vulnerable lefty Travis Bergen opening in a bullpen game. Analyzing lefty-righty matchups is a bit less important due to the nature of a bullpen game - just make sure you get to plenty of Freeman and/or Acuna tonight and hit on the right value bats surrounding them.
Jake Cronenworth - 1B/2B, SD vs. SF ($2,700)
It's a little baffling that Jake "Rake" Cronenworth is still priced this low after notching at least 12.2 FD points in four of his last five games. His numbers haven't been eye-popping this year but they're serviceable; he's hitting .263/.351/.404 with two homers, five RBI, 15 runs scored, and three steals. DeSclafani has pitched well this season through five starts and actually shut down the Padres in his season debut (5 IP, 1 ER), but a few of his advanced metrics (14th-percentile Hard HIt%, 17th-percentile Avg Exit Velocity) and his larger-sample form has me thinking he'll be regressing to the mean eventually. Cronenworth also gets the splits advantage here as almost all of his production has come against RHP this season.
Rafael Devers - 3B, BOS vs. TEX ($3,700)
Devers is scorching the ball this season and he has been on fire as of late, notching between 9 and 30.9 FD points in nine of his last 10 outings. In addition to the absurd metrics you can see below, he holds a 98th-percentile barrel rate. He gets the struggling Jordan Lyles tonight, who holds a 6.75 ERA through five starts and some really, really terrible advanced metrics (20th-percentile Barrel %, 50.6% Hard Hit % and .603 xSLG stand out the most). Devers crushes righty's as he holds a .980 OPS with six homers, 14 RBI, and 11 runs scored in the split this season.
*via Baseball Savant
Xander Bogaerts - SS, BOS vs. TEX ($3,300)
Don't worry...we'll find some value in the outfield for tonight. Bogaerts' upside and opportunity cost in this spot is just really hard to get away from as the other top shortstops are either in another pricing universe (Tatis Jr.) or facing really tough pitchers (Bichette, Seager, Story, and Semien). Bogaerts, meanwhile, gets Jordan Lyles, who has been awful and won't magically get better against this great Red Sox offense. Get him in there.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Franchy Cordero - OF, BOS vs. TEX ($2,100)
Cordero has always had the potential but has never really put it together - hence the near-minimum price tag. He's on a 0-for-14 slide, but he's going to be in a lineup that's bound to score a lot of runs against the gettable RHP Lyles. Cordero has hit RHP much better over the course of his career, so he's a worthy shot-in-the-dark GPP play today. Bobby Dalbec is another value bat on the Red Sox that you can deploy against Lyles.
Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL vs. TOR ($4,300)
Acuna and Freeman are two expensive bats I like a lot tonight against the Blue Jays. The Jays are going with opener Travis Bergen in a bullpen game and while Acuna has been below double-digit FD points in his last three games, that just means he's due for a big game tonight.
Joey Gallo - OF, TEX vs. BOS ($2,800)
Gallo is a sneaky play tonight as he's a reverse-splits hitter, meaning he historically hits better as a lefty against LHP. He's doing so again this season as his .263/.440/.447 (with two homers) slash line against LHP is much better than his numbers against RHP. E-Rod is an above-average southpaw, but he has given up two bombs in two of his four starts this season.
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