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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Twins at Tigers, Rays at Athletics, and the Phillies at Braves.
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Twins @ Tigers
More or Less Contest
Jose Berrios more than 5.5 strikeouts and Jose Urena more than 3. strikeouts
Jose Berrios gets the best matchup on the board in this one against the Detroit Tigers. Over the previous 10 days, the Tigers are striking out at a rate of 34.2% against right-handers, which ranks last in baseball. They are also posting just a 70 wRC+ over that same span, which ranks fourth-worst in baseball. Berrios has gone over this total in three of his six starts and is fresh off a nine strikeout game against a hard-to-strike-out Royals team. He should roll in this one.
Jose Urena is a bit tougher in this one, but with a prop sitting at 3.5 and facing a team that has a 22.3% K rate vs. righties over the previous 10 days makes this a more than play. Urena also faced these Twins back on April 5th and managed to strike out five of them. He is also fresh off a seven strikeout performance against the Yankees, who have an identical K rate to the Twins over the previous 10 days.
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Rays @ Athletics
More or Less Contest
Tyler Glasnow more than 7.5 strikeouts and Frankie Montas more than 5.5 strikeouts
Tyler Glasnow has been on fire to start 2021 and has 64 strikeouts across his first 43 2/3 innings pitched. He has gone over 7.5 strikeouts in five of his seven starts and has also struck out double-digit hitters in three starts in 2021. In his last meeting against these Athletics on April 28th, Glasnow managed to mow down 10 of them. This is a soft number that the site has opened with and will likely increase during the day.
While the Rays have been much worse against left-handed pitchers over the previous 10 days, they have not exactly been stellar against right-handers, either. Over the previous 10 days, the Rays are striking out at a rate of 24.3%, which is ranked ninth-worst in baseball. Montas has only gone over this total once in 2021, but this is a solid opportunity at home against a struggling Rays squad to get over.
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Phillies @ Braves
More or Less Contest
Vincent Velasquez less than 5.5 strikeouts and Ian Anderson more than 5.5 strikeouts
Velasquez has a tough matchup tonight against the Atlanta Braves as they are only striking out at a rate of 21.7% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks 12th-best in baseball over that span. They are also posting the 11th-best OPS over that span with a mark of .751, which makes this a spot Velasquez could get popped. He has also only reached six strikeouts once in 2021 and it was against the free-swinging Milwaukee Brewers.
I am going to go right back to attacking the Phillies one night after totally whiffing on Charlie Morton. While Morton struggled against this Phillies lineup, Josh Tomlin promptly came in and struck out five across 4 1/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have a K rate of 32.4% against righties over the previous 10 days, which is second-worst in baseball behind only the Tigers, so they certainly deserve to be attacked by right-handers at present. Ian Anderson has struck out at least six in four of his six starts in 2021 and reached it in both of his starts against the Phillies in early April.
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