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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at a couple of games including the Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees and the Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies.
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Angels @ Yankees
More or Less Contest
Jameson Taillon more than 5.5 strikeouts and Andrew Heaney more than 4.5 strikeouts
Taillon gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels tonight at home where he has posted a 3.04 ERA and struck out just over one batter per inning pitched. The Angels have also struggled a bit against right-handed pitching over the previous 10 days as they are striking out at a rate of 25.7%, which is ranked seventh-worst in baseball over that span. They are also walking at just a 7.7% rate vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which is also ranked seventh-worst in baseball.
Andrew Heaney has gone over this total in five consecutive starts and only failed to reach it in two starts on the season, so it likely will not be at 4.5 for long. He is facing a Yankees squad that is currently striking out at a rate of 30.7% against left-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked fourth-worst in baseball. They are also posting a 94 wRC+, which is not enough to scare me off this prop. As long as they let him pitch deep enough (he's gone five or more innings in six of his last seven starts) he should be able to achieve this total.
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Marlins @ Phillies
More or Less Contest
Trevor Rogers less than 6.5 strikeouts and Vincent Velasquez less than 5.5 strikeouts
Rogers is a tough call because he has faced these Phillies twice on the season and struck out eight and five in those two starts, respectively. Currently, the Phillies are posting a K rate of just 21% against left-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked ninth-best in baseball. They are also posting a 137 wRC+ mark, which is ranked fourth-best in baseball over the previous 10 days. These two combined could be a recipe to hold Rogers at bay in terms of strikeouts and this is also a number he has reached just once in his previous six starts.
Velasquez has only gone over this total three times all season and has not done it in any of his previous six starts. The Marlins are striking out at a rate of 25.2% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked ninth-worst in the league over that span, but still may not be high enough for Velasquez to get over this total. He also faced the Marlins in Miami and managed to strike out five in six innings. He also has a 5.18 ERA at home, which could certainly come into play in this one as he has not made it past five innings in any of his previous three home starts.
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