Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 24

3 years ago by Nicklaus Gaut

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We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of September 6th - September 12th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Saturday, September 5th.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

Tarik Skubal, DET (@ PIT) - He may be coming off of his arguably worst start of the year (6 ER in 5 IP against OAK) but there's no better get-right tonic better than getting to face the Pirates. Pittsburgh has a .289 wOBA vs LHP who's depths are only beat by Texas and while their 22.2% K% is low, I'm okay with trusting Skubal's elite whiffery to overcome.
Luke Weaver, ARI (vs TEX) - Weaver looked sharp in his return from injury on September 1, allowing one run on a solo home run over six innings versus the Padres, picking up the win and striking out six. He'll face a significantly worse offense in Week 24, getting a Rangers team that is even worse against RHP in the second half, as they were in the first, posting a .290 wOBA and 23.4% K% since the break.
Josiah Gray, WSH (@ PIT) - He got rocked in his last start, taking the loss after allowing 6 ER in four innings but Gray gets a premium matchup versus a Pirates team that has a .290 wOBA vs RHP in 2021 - the lowest in baseball.
Luis Patino, TB (@ DET) - Patino continues to look sharp, beating Boston in his last time out after allowing one run in 5.2 IP while striking out five. The Tigers have shaved a few points off of their strikeout rate against RHP in the second half but still have a 24.2% K%, along with a .306 wOBA.

Can Adds

James Kaprielian, OAK (vs TEX) - Kaprielian has been hit by the revenge of the FIP in the second half, posting a 6.67 ERA (5.59 FIP) over six starts after running a 2.90 ERA (4.39 FIP) in the first half. But he has a choice matchup against the Rangers, who have a .290 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Tanner Houck, BOS (@ CHW) - Houck is a good pickup but I'd be hesitant to start him against a White Sox team that's posted a .327 wOBA vs RHP, with a 22.5% K%.
Cole Irvin, OAK (vs TEX) - Irvin has struggled mightily over his last four starts (5.79 ERA, 6.86 FIP, 5 K in 18.2 IP) but it's hard to not start a lefty against Texas. The Rangers have just a .252 wOBA vs LHP, though it's matched by a minuscule 20.3% K%.
Touki Toussaint, ATL (vs WSH) - The Nationals have improved vs RHP in the second half, posting a .324 wOBA that is up from a .311 wOBA, while dropping their strikeout rate from 22.8% K% to a 20.1% K%.
Wily Peralta, DET (@ PIT) - Outside of a two-start hiccup after the All-Star break, Peralta continues to pitch respectably. Since allowing a total of 11 ER in those late-July starts, Peralta has a 3.75 ERA over five starts, striking out 17 over 24 IP. He'll face the Pirates this week, who persist in being terrible vs RHP, posting the league's worst wOBA against them.
Matt Manning, DET (@ PIT) - Manning's numbers are distorted by a disastrous outing his last start, where he allowed 8 ER in 3.2 IP against the Athletics. This is a good spot for a bounceback, as the Pirates have a .284 wOBA vs RHP that is down from a .293 wOBA in the first half.
Carlos Hernandez, KC (@ MIN) - Hernandez has been excellent as of late, going 2-0 in his last three starts, with a 1.45 ERA over 18.2 IP. But be careful, as the Twins have a .329 wOBA vs RHP in the second half, up from a .319 wOBA in the first half.
Brady Singer, KC (@ MIN) - Singer is in the same situation as Hernandez; he's been great over his last three starts (including two against Houston), posting a 2.04 ERA over 17.2 IP but also has a tough matchup with the Twins.
A. J. Alexy, TEX (@ LAA) - In his major-league debut, Alexy shut out the Rockies for five innings on one hit and three walks, striking out four and picking up the win. He'll face an Angels offense that has been even worse vs RHP in the second half (.284 wOBA) than they were in the first half (.293 wOBA).
Joe Ryan, MIN (@ CLE) - Part of the booty received for Nelson Cruz, Ryan allowed three earned runs in five innings against the Cubs in his major league debut, striking out five. He'll face a mediocre Cleveland offense, who have just a .306 wOBA vs RHP in 2021.
Rich Hill, NYM (@ MIA) - It's hard to trust Hill but Miami is just so bad vs LHP (.294 wOBA) and have a 27.8% K% against them that is the highest in baseball.
Chris Ellis, BAL (vs KC) - He hasn't gotten deep into games yet, only completing five innings once in his four games (three starts), but the Baltimore rookie has been solid, with a 2.16 ERA over 16.2 IP. He'll face a Royals team that only has a .283 wOBA vs RHP in the second half.
Adrian Houser, MIL (@ CLE) - After blanking the Cardinals for a complete-game shutout, Houser lines up for another great matchup with Cleveland, who continue to be mediocre vs RHP, posting a .309 wOBA in the second half that is only up slightly from a .302 wOBA in the first half.
Daniel Lynch, KC (@ MIN) - Keep an eye on his status, as a cut forced Lynch to leave his start on Sunday after allowing six runs in 2.2 IP, but Lynch has a premium matchup versus the Twins if he's good to go. The Twins had a .329 wOBA vs LHP in the first half but have plummeted to a .267 wOBA in the second half while rising from a 22.6% K% to a 25.0% K%.
Jake Odorizzi, HOU (vs SEA) - The Mariners have a 25.1% K% vs RHP in the second half, with a .304 wOBA and backed by Houston's powerful offense, Odorizzi should have a good shot at a win, even if the outing is unspectacular.
Paul Blackburn, OAK (vs TEX)
Mitch Keller, PIT (vs DET)
Michael Wacha, TB (@ DET)

Desperate Adds

John Gant, MIN (@ CLE) - Cleveland isn't great vs RHP (.309 wOBA, 24.0% K% in the second half) but Gant doesn't get deep in games and is unlikely to be in line for a win, giving him a fairly low ceiling.
Griffin Jax, MIN (vs KC) - Jax has been rotten lately, allowing a total of 15 ER over 9.2 IP in his last two starts but to be fair, they came against Boston and Milwaukee. He gets a much more friendly matchup this week, facing a Royals team with just a .283 wOBA vs RHP in the second half, though they don't strike out much (21.5% K% in the second half).
Glenn Otto Jr. TEX (@ OAK) - Otto has been pretty good in his first two major league starts, with a 1.86 ERA over 9.2 IP, striking out 11, though failing to earn a win in either. Unfortunately, earning a win is always going to be difficult for any Texas pitcher, putting a lower ceiling on their usefulness.
Nestor Cortes Jr., NYY (vs TOR) - Cortes has been excellent but I simply don't want anything to do with starting a left-hander against Toronto. The Blue Jays have a .346 wOBA against LHP in the second half, with just an 18.0% K%. No thank you.
Tyler Gilbert, ARI (@ SEA) - Gilbert has been shaky since his no-hitter, posting a 5.40 ERA in three starts, with 10 K in 15 IP. He'll face a Mariners team that is much improved against LHP in the second half, posting a .313 wOBA that is up from a .290 wOBA, and a 23.3% K% that is down from a 26.9% K%.
Mike Minor, KC (@ BAL) - If you're looking for five innings of a 4.50-ish ERA and four strikeouts, Minor is your guy. But he can also be your guy for a 10.00 ERA of indeterminate lengths.
Kyle Freeland, COL (vs SF, @ PHI) - The Giants have been much worse against LHP in the second half, posting a .304 wOBA against them, compared to a .325 wOBA in the first half. Unfortunately, that game will be in Colorado, which continues it dominance, regardless of half. The Phillies have a .337 wOBA vs LHP in the second half, with an 18.9% K% that has dropped dramatically from a 26.4% K% vs LHP in the first half. This is a dangerous two-step.
Patrick Corbin, WSH (vs NYM, @ PIT) - Corbin gets two starts this week after allowing six earned runs in three of his past four starts. The good news is that one of those starts is versus the Pirates. The bad news is that Corbin is a human gas can.
J. A. Happ, STL (vs LAD, vs CIN) - To paraphrase myself from last week, Happ is only good against the Pirates. The Dodgers and Reds are not the Pirates. Therefore, J. A. Happ will not be any good this week. Logiced! Part Deux.
Jackson Kowar, KC (@ BAL, @ MIN) - Kowar returned to action on September 1 and pitched admirably, allowing 2 ER in six innings against Cleveland, striking out six. His opponents this week are mediocre vs RHP but letting the rookie loose for both starts is still a high-risk move.
Bailey Ober, MIN (@ CLE, vs KC) - Ober continued to be excellent last week, picking up the win over the Tigers after allowing two earned runs over six innings. And the rookie has excellent matchups this week. Unfortunately, the Twins have already announced that Ober will be piggybacking with Michael Pineda for Monday's start, putting his second start of the week likely in the same boat. He'll probably get a total of 7-8 innings in those two starts but will unlikely be eligible to pick up any wins, regardless of performance.
Edward Cabrera, MIA (vs NYM, @ ATL) - The rookie has been okay in his first two starts but has a 5.23 ERA over 10.1 IP and has only struck out four batters.
Jordan Lyles, TEX (@ ARI) - Lyles faces an Arizona team that, while better than in the first half, has only posted a .310 wOBA against RHP in the second half, with a 25.5% K%.
Kohei Arihara, TEX (@ ARI) - If forced to take a suspect Rangers right-hander vs the Diamondbacks, I'd rather have Arihara, who returned from the IL last week, allowing 1 ER on one hit in 3.1 IP versus the Rockies, while striking out three.

Notable IL

Dylan Bundy, LAA
Tony Gonsolin, LAD
Michael Pineda, MIN
Austin Gomber, COL
Domingo German, NYY
Jon Gray, COL
Johnny Cueto, SF
Carlos Martinez, STL
Danny Duffy, LAD
Patrick Sandoval, LAA
Alex Cobb, LAA
Brad Keller, KC
Dane Dunning, TEX
Ross Stripling, TOR
Mike Foltynewicz, TEX
Joe Ross, WSH
Brett Anderson, MIL
Reid Detmers, LAA
Spencer Howard, TEX

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

Taylor Rogers, MIN
Rafael Montero, HOU
Chris Martin, ATL
Drew Pomeranz, SD
Jordan Hicks, STL
Julian Merriweather, TOR
Zack Britton, NYY
Jeffrey Springs, TB

With the trade deadline (and injuries) shaking bullpens up all over the league, we're going to do things a little differently in the second half, going through each team that currently has a relevant (according to our roster% threshold) bullpen situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Clippard is the closer but Arizona failed to enter a save opportunity this week.

Baltimore Orioles

In the Mix: Cole Sulser (Save on Tuesday, Win on Saturday), Tanner Scott (Hold on Saturday), Dillon Tate (Losses on Monday, Wednesday, Friday )

Boston Red Sox

In the Mix: Adam Ottovino (Save on Wednesday, Win on Friday, Win/Blown Save on Saturday), Garrett Whitlock (Win on Wednesday, Save on Friday).

Chicago Cubs

In the Mix: Rowan Wick (Save on Tuesday, Blown Save on Thursday, Save on Friday), Codi Heuer (Hold on Tuesday, Win on Thursday, Hold on Friday).

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Cincinnati Reds

In the Mix: Mychal Givens (Save on Saturday), Michael Lorenzon (Hold on Saturday).

Colorado Rockies

In the Mix: Carlos Estevez (Save on Friday, Save on Saturday) is in, Daniel Bard (Hold on Saturday) is out.

Kansas City Royals

Scott Barlow has been entrenched as the closer for a few weeks but Jake Brentz was given a save opportunity on Wednesday after coming off of the IL. He promptly blew it.

Miami Marlins

In the Mix: Anthony Bender (one appearance this week), Dylan Floro (Save on Saturday), Anthony Bass (Win on Saturday).

Oakland Athletics

In the Mix: Andrew Chafin (Hold on Thursday), Sergio Romo (Save on Thursday, Loss/Blown Save on Friday), Jake Diekman (two appearances last week), Yusmeiro Petit (Hold on Tuesday, Blown Save on Friday).

Pittsburgh Pirates

In the Mix: David Bednar (one appearance this week), Chris Stratton (Loss/Blown Save on Saturday), Chad Kuhl (Blown Save on Thursday).

Seattle Mariners

In the Mix: Drew Steckenrider (Hold on Wednesday), Paul Sewald (Win on Tuesday, Save on Wednesday, Blown Save on Friday), Diego Castillo (Save on Saturday after being activated from the IL).

Tampa Bay Rays

In the Mix: Andrew Kittredge (Save on Tuesday, Save on Friday), Pete Fairbanks (Hold on Monday, Loss on Wednesday, Hold on Friday), Collin McHugh (Blown Save on Wednesday), Dave Robertson (Hold on Friday).

Texas Rangers

In the Mix: Spencer Patton (Hold on Monday, Save on Tuesday), Joe Barlow (Save on Monday, Loss/Blown Save on Wednesday).

Washington Nationals

In the Mix: Kyle Finnegan (Save and Loss in Saturday's doubleheader ), Andres Machado (Loss/Blown Save on Thursday, Hold on Saturday).

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