RADIO
Another week in the book and that means the available data we have to look at has doubled! We are still probably three or four weeks away from having a significant data sample, but it's never too early to peer into the numbers to see what's been happening.
We started this post series last week, and it continues here for week two. From here on, I'll break down the previous week by itself, and then also update the season per-game average numbers for you all.
All tables are sortable and searchable. They will work fine on mobile, but I do recommend viewing this post on a tablet or PC as it makes the user experience much more friendly.
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Team Data
Before we get to the tables, here are the parameters I used to define "neutral situations":
- The offensive team's win probability is between 25% and 75%
- The play was run on first down
- The play was run on second down and less than eight yards to go
- The play was run on third down and less than four yards to go
The Titans led the way running 89 plays. That was buoyed by the Seahawks once again scoring quickly and the game going into overtime. Miami took the air against Buffalo, being down multiple scores in that game. These are two good examples of why you can't really take weekly play data to glean much in terms of insights. Plays run and the type of play breakdown is very mostly game-flow dependent.
It will be more useful to look at the season totals, but with just two weeks in the books, these numbers are still subject to tons of variance. Nonetheless, here they are:
I think it's interesting to take a peek at the deep pass rates there. It's not encouraging to see the Falcons with just 1% of their pass attempts being filed in the "deep attempt" category, which I count as being passes that traveled 25 or more yards downfield in the air. A bad sign about Matt Ryan's age that could really hurt Calvin Ridley? It may be! I'll leave the rest to you for interpretation.
Player Data - Snaps
We are mostly going to break this down between the three distinct position groups: quarterbacks and their passing stats, pass catchers and their receiving stats, and then running backs and both their rushing and receiving stats. First, here's the week two snap data looking at all "flex" players (non-QBs):
The Redskins are going to rely on Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas to be on the field no matter who their quarterback is, as both of those guys have logged massive snap counts the first two weeks (Thomas notched 100% both weeks so far). Darnell Mooney also hasn't left the field for the Bears, turning in a nice six-catch game and getting himself in consideration as a flex player as the Bears move forward with Justin Fields.
I recommend searching that table by team abbreviation to see how each team deployed their skill players. The search isn't perfect, if you search "PIT" you will end up with Michael Pittman and Kyle Pitts in the results, but hey - life is hard sometimes.
Player Data - Passers
Kyle Murray was the winner of the week, really showing off some impressive passing numbers. He completed 29 of his 36 attempts, and that was while averaging a respectable 8.2 air yards per attempt and racking up 11.1 actual yards per attempt. He's in for a massive fantasy season, it seems.
Trevor Lawrence continues to chuck the ball downfield, notching another very high average depth of attempt at 12.3 yards. Jalen Hurts led week two in this category without getting much in terms of results against a tough 49ers defense. This is another tough number to see for Matt Ryan who averaged just 3.7 air yards on his pass attempts - that is not going to get it done. Dak Prescott was also depressingly low in that category, but the rest of the names near the bottom of the list aren't very surprising.
Now we'll pivot to season QB data:
I'm trying to stick more to efficiency and opportunity stuff here because you can find yards and touchdown wherever you go. Josh Allen and Russell Wilson are unsurprising names to see with high average air yards per attempt metrics, but some more interesting names here are Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater, and Trevor Lawrence.
It's pretty funny to see Jared Goff's numbers here. He's thrown the ball 96 times to lead the league, but has just 292 air yards to go with it. It's dump-off city in Detroit and I don't see him being very useful for fantasy purposes this year even if these crazy high pass attempt numbers would keep coming. Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones are also discouraging names to see near the bottom of the air yards per game column. None of those three are showing much fantasy upside with how their offenses are running.
Player Data - Touch Leaders & RB Data
These are essentially just running back stats, let's check them out for week two:
Just an absurd gap between Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey there. King Henry touched the ball 41 times. Six of those were catches, a much higher reception count then what you're used to seeing. It is important to note again that the Titans were playing catch-up to the Seahawks for most of this game - there's no reason to expect 5+ targets for Henry moving forward (at least not right now!).
David Montgomery separated himself from Damien Williams a bit, touching the ball 23 times while being pretty inefficient with those touches. Joe Mixon was bound for a come-down after that insane week one touch count, but 20 carries and a catch is nothing to sneeze at, especially since the Bengals were trailing for much of the game. And the last note I have is that Tony Pollard was crazy efficient with 8.4 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per catch. The Cowboys have good reason to let him continue to eat a little bit into Ezekiel Elliott's workload.
Now let's move to season stats for the running backs:
Your running back opportunity leader so far is Christian McCaffrey - no shock there. CMC's 22.5 rush attempts and seven catches per game are elite usage that few running backs can replicate, and those who took him with the first overall pick are going to be in for quite a fun rest of the season. Derrick Henry does currently top CMC in touches per game, but that was helped by an outlier 41 touches in week two which just doesn't happen except or in extreme situations. Give me CMC moving forward and it's not close.
Some other players with encouraging touch counts so far this year: Damien Harris, Mark Ingram, Antonio Gibson, Mike Davis, Miles Sanders, and Darrell Henderson. None of the guys on that shortlist had really great fantasy outcomes in week two, but for now, they seem to have solid floors with how much their teams are relying on them.
Player Data - Pass Catchers
Terry McLaurin and Brandin Cooks led the week with 14 targets each, both turning in strong games. Cooper Kupp was the week two MVP with his 179 yards and two touchdowns, and most encouragingly was probably the catch rate, as he has really been looking good with Matthew Stafford. Courtland Sutton also popped in the absence of Jerry Jeudy to the tune of 258 air yards and 159 actual yards. That air yards total topped the second-place Chase Claypool by 64 yards and a 21.5 ADoT.
You can flip through the rest of the table to find more, that one is loaded up with good stuff!
Let's take a look at the season averages now for some useful categories:
Darren Waller still tops the league in targets, although most of that 13 targets per game average came from his 19 targets in week one. Marquez Valdes-Scantling continues to be his classic self - running really far down the field and not catching the ball.
Things are looking very strong for Marvin Jones, Tyler Lockett, Waller, DJ Chark, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and CeeDee Lamb - all of those guys are averaging big numbers in both targets and air yards, the exact combination you're hoping for from a pass-catcher.
There's your week two update! Thanks for reading!
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