RADIO
As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, we are approaching the time where it is warranted to start panicking about players. We are not there yet, but the next couple of weeks could be critical for the ROS fantasy outlook of many players who have gotten off to a slow start.
Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations.
No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of guys who are by no means a must-start in Week 3.
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QB - Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield could be short of weapons in the passing game for the team's Week 3 contest against the Chicago Bears, as Jarvis Landry heads to IR and there's the looming possibility of a snap count for Odell Beckham Jr. if he is even active for this game. With a banged-up receiver room, the Browns could lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt even more in this game, meaning there could be very limited passing volume for Mayfield. The solid Bears defense could give him some problems in this one, just like they did to Joe Burrow in Week 2 where they finished with three interceptions and four sacks.
Mayfield is best valued as a QB2 this week, and should only be started in deeper leagues. In Justin Fields’ first NFL start, it is unlikely he carves up the solid Browns defense and forces Mayfield and company to abandon their running game. The game script will likely call for a run-heavy offense that the Browns are notorious for, so fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a starting quarterback. Some streaming options include Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, and Daniel Jones.
RB - Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Gibson was labeled as one of the potential breakout fantasy stars heading into his sophomore season, even leading many to refer to him as the “DC CMC.” Through the first two weeks of the season, the 23-year-old has failed to find the end zone. Now, he is in for another tough matchup against a stingy Buffalo defense. The Bills have given up just 73 rushing yards per game to this point, and have been successful at keeping the ball out of their end zone.
The presence of J.D. McKissic does no favors for the outlook of Gibson. In Week 2, McKissic scored a touchdown while catching five passes. Although the Washington defense is one of the best in the league, this could be a game where they allow Josh Allen and company to get an early lead, which would be a game script that does not favor Gibson. Ron Rivera and company have mentioned that they would like Gibson to see an increased role as a receiver, but up to this point, he has just five receptions in two games. He is still a must-start option for fantasy managers, but in Week 3 it would be best to value him in the RB2 range rather than as the RB1 he was drafted as.
Antonio Gibson vs. the #Giants:
➡ 69 yards on 13 carries
➡ 4 yards on 2 receptionsJ.D. McKissic vs. the #Giants:
➡ 10 yards on 4 carries
➡ 83 yards on 5 receptions pic.twitter.com/BkZEHmdf2K— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 17, 2021
RB - David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
With Justin Fields taking over as quarterback for Chicago, the offense as a whole should be able to get a significant boost moving forward. However, Montgomery doesn't have a great outlook as the Bears travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. With Fields under center, Montgomery could potentially lose some goal-line carry opportunities and he could see his rushing volume become lower than usual because of designed run plays for the former Ohio State star.
The Browns have allowed just 155 rushing yards in the first two games (3.0 YPC) meaning that Montgomery will likely need a heavy workload to make up for any inefficiency on the ground. Even if this is the case, a lot of volume doesn't necessarily mean strong fantasy production. After handling 23 touches in Week 2, Montgomery finished with just 79 total yards. When Fields came into the game, he carried the ball 10 times, so it is safe to say that Montgomery could be closer to the 16 carries he handled in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams. The third-year running back is best valued as a mid-to-low end RB2 this week.
RB - Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams
Henderson has been dealing with a rib injury leading up to the matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, which is just another reason it is probably best for fantasy managers to keep him on the bench this week. To put it simply, the Buccaneers are the absolute worst matchup you can get as a running back when it comes to fantasy production. Sean McVay and the Rams could look to take a page out of the Dallas Cowboys’ playbook, and use the short passing game with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to make up for a potential lack of effectiveness in the running game.
The Buccaneers held Ezekiel Elliott to just 33 rushing yards in Week 1 and Mike Davis to 38 rushing yards in Week 2. Although Henderson has proven to be a talented and explosive back, this is a matchup that is just simply too hard to count on him for. If he is held out of the game due to his rib injury, Sony Michel could become a hot commodity as a FLEX option. If this is the case, Michel’s outlook is no better than that of Henderson. Regardless of who is active and inactive in this one, no running backs on the Rams have a good outlook in this one.
WR - Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a Week 1 dud, Evans delivered for fantasy managers against the weak pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons, putting up five catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Once again, the extremely touchdown-dependent Evans is in for all he can handle against Jalen Ramsey on Sunday. Antonio Brown is likely out for this game, which many would see as a good thing for the outlook of Evans. However, this may mean that he sees even more of Ramsey, which is not exactly an ideal situation for a receiver.
In Week 1, Ramsey held Allen Robinson II to just six catches for 35 yards on 11 targets, signifying that even a lot of volume won’t help a receiver have a good game when being shadowed by the No. 1 cornerback in the NFL. Evans has a track record of being shut down by other teams' top corners, as last season he was held to less than 70 receiving yards on 11 separate occasions. Although he could certainly find the end zone in this game, it may be in your best interest to leave the seven-time 1,000-yard receiver on your bench in Week 3.
Jalen Ramsey vs. Mike Evans is a marquee matchup to watch on Sunday whenever the two line up across from each other. https://t.co/rFNFokHJ7k
— Rams Wire (@TheRamsWire) September 23, 2021
WR - Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
McLaurin showed fantasy managers why he was identified as a breakout star in Week 2 when he put 11 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown against James Bradberry and the New York Giants. The 26-year-old will match up with Tre’Davious White in Week 3, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, said McLaurin himself. Although the third-year stud has been labeled as “QB-proof” and “matchup-proof,” he could be in for a rough game if he doesn't find the end zone. White didn't allow a single touchdown in five shadow coverage matchups last season, and it is safe to say he will be following McLaurin all over the field on Sunday, especially with Curtis Samuel still sidelined.
Fantasy managers likely don't have any better options apart from extremely shallow leagues, so he should be started in all formats. Having said that, expectations should be tempered just a bit. He is best valued as a WR2 rather than the lower-end WR1 he was drafted as because he could be in for a performance that is reminiscent of Week 1, where he finished with just four catches for 62 yards.
Washington WR Terry McLaurin has said Tre’Davious White is one of the toughest CBs he’s faced.
Here’s why: pic.twitter.com/dKtMHvNRJK
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 21, 2021
TE - Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Although this could be considered a hot take considering the graveyard that the tight end position is, fantasy managers might want to look elsewhere for starting options instead of Tonyan on the road facing the San Francisco 49ers. Last week, the 49ers held Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to a combined three catches for 30 yards. Tonyan is coming off an impressive performance against the Detroit Lions where he caught three passes for 52 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately, the Green Bay Packers can’t play the Lions every week, meaning it might be hard for Tonyan to repeat his performance against a much better defense in Week 3. Sure, there is always the possibility that he can find the end zone in this one considering he scored 11 times in 2020. But, the potential lack of passing volume he could get is enough reason to bench the 27-year-old in this one. With just seven targets in two games, some potential better options this week could include Maxx Williams vs Jacksonville, and Mike Gesicki vs Las Vegas.
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