RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different than the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, there are five games that have expected totals of over 50 points. This means there are a lot of directions one can go when trying to figure out who to stack. I generally want to find the game or games that are expected to be less popular but have the same chances of going off as the more popular games.
(1) Los Angeles Rams
The Rams and Buccaneers game has a 55.5 point over/under. I could see a lot of people wanting to lean the Tampa Bay side of things, however, Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL allowing 342 passing yards per game, while the L.A. Rams are 11th. Cooper Kupp has 38% of the team targets and is still underpriced in my opinion. After going off the last two weeks, I imagine Kupp will be pretty popular, potentially the most popular wide receiver on the slate, either as part of a Rams stack or as a bring-back player for a Tampa Bay stack. Robert Woods has a 23.6% target share after the first two weeks. I target any wide receiver that has a target share of over 20%. Going with a pairing of Stafford and Woods is a way to get a little bit different from the field, or doing a full stack of Stafford-Kupp-Woods.
If looking for correlation, Tampa Bay is tough to figure out because the targets are so evenly distributed. Out of 81 targets thus far in the season, the target leaders are Chris Godwin (19), Mike Evans (15), Rob Gronkowski (13), Leonard Fournette (11). I will be fading Gronk for sure, as I do not believe he will continue to catch two touchdowns per game. I would take whichever will be less popular out of Godwin and Evans most likely.
(2) Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is always a threat to be the top stack of the slate. Tyreek Hill has a 30% target share and Travis Kelce has a 23.8% target share. There are a few things working against Kansas City: the Chargers are allowing just 177 yards passing per game this season. They just shut down the passing game of a Cowboys team that looked to have a great passing game in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.
This stack is more of a "what-if" scenario. I am not predicting that Kansas City will go nuclear but if they do put up over 30 points, whoever fits them in their lineup will likely bring home some solid winnings.
Because they are so expensive, I do not expect this stack to be popular. If you roster Patrick Mahomes - Tyreek Hill - Travis Kelce, you will have to punt nearly all the remaining spots in the lineup. I did this in Week 1 and did make some money, but not nearly what I would have liked to have won because my punt plays all missed.
Another route to go is to do a Mahomes-Hill lineup and then do a Mahomes - Kelce lineup and this is something I am considering doing as well.
(3) Seattle Seahawks
This game has the second-highest total on the slate, yet people just don't go to Seattle the way they do for other teams in a similar spot. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have the same number of targets on the season. They both have a target share of over 30%. While Seattle doesn't pass the ball at the volume other teams do, a stack of Wilson-Lockett-Metcalf will account for 60% of all the targets and you can't really beat target consolidation like that. Minnesota is allowing 294 passing yards per game which is 26th in the NFL.
The risk here is after Seattle watched Derrick Henry run all over them in a loss, will their coaching staff opt to be more run-heavy? Minnesota's run defense is also not good as they allow 126 rushing yards per game, which is 21st in the NFL.
Seattle is still a stack I would consider, just understand it can go sideways potentially.
Final Thoughts
When there are five games with totals of 50 or more points, it is an indicator that you can go to different games. Find the stacks that will be less popular within those 10 teams playing in the high total game and make a few lineups targeting those teams. If one of the three above I recommended become too chalky, feel free to fade and go another route. If you can find high total games with consolidated targets, you have the potential to have a good Sunday afternoon.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 3 DFS Stacks!
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