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Welcome to the Week 4 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mis-priced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 4 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Taylor Heinicke, WAS at ATL | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $26
Heinicke has been more than serviceable from a fantasy perspective since taking over the starting quarterback job midway through Week 1, and even in a Week 3 blowout loss to the Bills, he threw multiple touchdown passes for the second straight week. The mobile Old Dominion product has 44 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground as well, and in Week 4, he'll get a crack at a beatable Falcons secondary with receiver Curtis Samuel making his 2021/team debut as an added weapon.
The Falcons have allowed 255.3 passing yards per game, a 70.8 percent completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt. Atlanta has also given up passer ratings well north of 100 in five of the six main passing windows, which seemingly opens up the entirety of the field for Heinicke to target his speedy set of wideouts on the fast dome track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. SEA | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $25
Garoppolo had to endure some public outcry for Trey Lance this week, which could well help fuel him a bit more for this divisional matchup in front of the home crowd. The veteran quarterback did play much better in the second half of the Sunday night loss to the Packers than in the first half, a game in which he threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time this season. Garoppolo is completing a solid 67.4 percent of his throws at an average of 8.0 yards per attempt, so the potential for some downfield plays is there against a Seahawks defense that's proven vulnerable to the pass in the early going.
Seattle checks in having allowed a robust 285.3 passing yards per game, a 70.7 percent completion rate and 7.4 yards per attempt. The Seahawks have also given up five touchdown passes without recording an interception through three games, and they've proven most vulnerable to passes in the short/intermediate and deep middle of the field, allowing 124 and 119 passer ratings, respectively, in those windows. Meanwhile, Garoppolo has made his second-most attempts on passes in the short/intermediate middle window, accounting for 243 of his 760 passing yards on the season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Sam Darnold, CAR at DAL | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Miles Sanders, PHI vs. KC | DK: $6,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $21
Sanders, despite his big name, could make for a somewhat sneaky tournament play after only touching the ball an absurd two times in the running game during a nationally televised blowout loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. Coach Nick Sirianni has had to answer plenty of questions about the star running back's sparse usage this week, and in a matchup against a Chiefs team that Philadelphia will need to both control the clock and hit some chunk plays to have a chance of keeping up, the stage could be set for a Sanders resurgence.
On paper, the numbers work out nicely for Sanders, as the Chiefs are allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry. KC is also ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in second-level yards per carry (1.6) and open-field yards per carry (0.9) allowed, two worrisome metrics given Sanders' home-run ability. For its part, the Eagles' offensive line has done a solid job when given the opportunity, facilitating 4.5 RB yards per carry and ranking in the top 10 in second-level yards per carry (1.4) and open-field yards per carry (0.8) facilitated. Finally, consider the Chiefs have also allowed an average of five receptions per game to running backs, furthering Sanders' upside in the matchup.
Zack Moss, BUF vs. HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Moss may finally be moving into the front-line role that many had envisioned for him in the Bills backfield if his Week 3 usage and performance is any indication. The second-year back put together a solid 13-60 line on the ground that he supplemented with a 3-31-1 line through the air in the blowout win over Washington. Moss' 16 total touches represented a nice bump from the 10 he'd logged in his Week 2 season debut, and he could be set for another increase in workload in a Week 4 matchup against a Texans team that the Bills, which are more than two-touchdown favorites, could certainly blow out.
The Texans have been somewhat better against the run on paper so far this season, surrendering a reasonable 116.3 rushing yards per game. However, Houston is also allowing 4.98 adjusted line yards and 5.0 RB yards per carry, so the potential for Moss to enjoy another efficient, productive day on the ground is certainly there, especially if he's getting plenty of carries in the second half. Then, it's also worth noting that the Bills' offensive line has enjoyed its greatest success in runs off the left end (5.7 adjusted line yards per carry facilitated), while the Texans have given up an elevated 4.9 adjusted line yards per carry when targeted on runs in that direction.
ALSO CONSIDER: Kareem Hunt, CLE at MIN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $20
YAHOO-ONLY SPECIAL: Chuba Hubbard, CAR at DAL | $17
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Odell Beckham Jr., CLE at MIN | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $27
Beckham got his season off to a good start against the Bears in Week 3, posting a 5-77 line on nine targets. The multi-time Pro Bowler's presence will continue to be particularly important to the Browns' fortunes with Jarvis Landry on injured reserve with an MCL sprain, and in Week 4, Beckham sets up particularly well against a Vikings defense that has been allowing plenty through the air over Minnesota's first three games.
The Vikes are allowing 290.3 passing yards per game, and they've surrendered an elevated 72.4 percent catch rate to wide receivers on their way to yielding a 42-628-6 line to the position over the first three games. Minnesota is also allowing 9.2 yards per attempt and robust 125 and 135 passer ratings on throws to the deep left and deep right areas of the field, passing windows where Beckham has enjoyed no shortage of success with highlight-reel catches during his decorated NFL career.
Antonio Brown, TB at NE | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $19
The spotlight will naturally shine bright on Sunday night's Brady Bowl. If focusing on a player or two from that contest, why not go with one that offers a great savings/upside combination and who might just be rostered a little more lightly after missing Week 3 while on the COVID-19 list and turning in a Week 2 dud? All those descriptors apply to Brown, whose breakout 5-121-1 line in Week 1 may be ancient history by DFS standards at this point, but that nevertheless offers a tangible reminder of what his ceiling can be.
While the overwhelming amount of attention will be on Tom Brady and the Mike Evans/Chris Godwin duo to a lesser extent, this is also a bit of a revenge game for Brown after he lasted all of one game with the Patriots two seasons ago before his release. New England's veteran secondary has generated stellar pass-defense metrics through three games, but there's no doubt Brady will look to attack downfield in his return to Foxborough, and the fact tight end Rob Gronkowski is doubtful for the contest due to his ribs injury only brightens Brown's outlook further.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. IND | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $18
The Dolphins' passing game isn't exactly sending DFS pulses racing through three games, especially with dink-and-dunk specialist Jacoby Brissett currently manning the controls. Nevertheless, Waddle is an intriguing value option in Week 4 following an ultra-busy Week 3 in which he brought in 12 of 13 targets, albeit for just 58 yards. The amount of attention the rookie drew from Brissett was highly encouraging, as is Waddle's 84.6 percent catch rate through three games. Waddle's chances of breaking off some big gains downfield could well be capped by Brissett's style, but perhaps the former Colt will be allowed to air it out a bit against a secondary that's proven vulnerable to the pass in the early going this season anyhow.
Indy checks in allowing a 68.8 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt and the Colts are tied with the Buccaneers for most touchdowns allowed to receivers (seven) through three games. There also happens to be synergy between the areas of the field the Colts have been most generous against the pass in and those in which Waddle has enjoyed his most success thus far -- while Indy has allowed passer ratings of 120 and 135 in the short/intermediate and deep left passing windows, respectively, Waddle has caught six of his seven combined targets in those areas of the field for 62 yards and a touchdown.
ALSO CONSIDER: Curtis Samuel, WAS at ATL | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $16
DRAFTKINGS-ONLY SPECIAL: Amari Cooper, DAL vs. CAR | $6,000
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Noah Fant, DEN vs. BAL | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $21
Fant turned in a dud of a performance against the Jets in Week 3, recording just two receptions for 15 yards. However, that contest was hardly competitive, and the Week 4 matchup against the Ravens could certainly be one where the Broncos, already down two wide receivers, could be forced to be much more aggressive. Fant produced a combined 10-95-1 line through the first two games of the season, and he's seen a solid 17 targets through three games thus far. Meanwhile, the Ravens did a good job against T.J. Hockenson in Week 3, but they've yielded the most receptions (23) and receiving yards (290) to tight ends thus far, along with a pair of scores. Fant's athleticism should allow him to get downfield and help absorb some of the targets left behind by Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (knee).
Dawson Knox, BUF vs. HOU | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $18
Knox came through nicely as a value recommendation in Week 3, and given his matchup against Lovie Smith's Cover-2 Texans defense in Week 4, he's right back in play and what are still extremely reasonable salaries. The athletic tight end displayed his pass-catching chops on a leaping touchdown grab against Washington last week, and he should have a chance for his share of chunk plays against a Houston defense that's already allowed a 21-230-1 line to tight ends this season. Knox's five targets in Week 3 were also a season high, an encouraging development that could replicate itself Sunday given the matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Pat Freiermuth, PIT at GB | DK: $3,100, FD: $5,000, Yahoo: $13
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