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Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). Week 4 produced fireworks and saw plenty of widely available players step up into the spotlight. What will you do heading into Week 5?
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 5.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
37% rostered
Once again, Sammy Scampers has delivered one of the best QB performances of the week. It was partially fueled by two futile late-game scores to D.J. Moore but we count those all the same. The real story is his delivering another two rushing TDs alongside 35 yards on six totes. Carolina is no longer undefeated, but Darnold is playing like a winner. He gets Philly at home next and should be considered in 12-teamers, at least until CMC returns and takes more of the goal-line rushing work back.
Sam Darnold's five rushing TDs is the most by a QB in the first four games of a season in the NFL's Super Bowl era.
— Will Bryan (@Pantherstatsguy) October 3, 2021
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
31% rostered
Speaking of rushing QBs, Jones didn’t need his legs in a Week 4 victory over the Saints as he notched his first career 400-yard passing game. It was also his first game with more than one passing touchdown. I didn’t expect this given the absences of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, but life finds a way. He’s volatile, but there’s a reasonable weekly top-12 upside to his skill set. He’ll need it for this next stretch of games, starting with a road date in Dallas for Week 5.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
10% rostered
My cheap DFS lean of Week 4 paid off with some late-game heroics, which is always the plan against Atlanta, right? Heinicke amassed 290 passing yards and three scores while adding five rushes for 43 yards for a top-10 finish. He looks comfortable with Terry McLaurin and is a worthwhile streamer with the Saints, Chiefs, and Packers on deck as his next three matchups.
Trey Lance (QB, SF) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
30% rostered
Lance was called into action after Jimmy Garoppolo exited with a calf injury, and boy did the rookie deliver. Despite this not being the plan, Lance latched onto Deebo Samuel and delivered 157 pass yards with two scores and 7-41-0 rushing. This is despite going three-and-out on his first two drives as the nerves surely settled. He has those 35-point performances within reach and will need it against Kyler Murray in Week 5. How Jimmy G’s status plays into who starts will require monitoring, but they do have an early Week 6 bye to heal up.
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs
Damien Williams (RB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 30-50%*
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 2-3%
8% rostered
1% rostered
Williams stepped in as Chicago’s starting RB once David Montgomery left with a knee injury. Initial reports state Monty avoided major injury, but even a hyperextension could mean a few games off. Williams tallied 70 yards and a score on just 10 touches, but then left with a quad injury himself. If both Montgomery and Williams can’t go, then Herbert would be the likely lead back with Ryan Nall getting activated. It's a messy spot, but opportunity is worth something.
*Update, it's reported that David Montgomery is out 4-5 weeks and so you're going to want to be aggressive on Damien Williams. Chicago is a work-in-progress offense but opportunity and volume will be there for a man who deserved the Super Bowl MVP in 2019-20.
Per source, tests showed Bears RB David Montgomery has a knee sprain that’s expected to keep him out 4-5 weeks. Not season-ending, but Bears will be without their starting RB for a while.
— Dan Graziano (@DanGrazianoESPN) October 5, 2021
Latavius Murray (RB, BAL) - FAB Bid: 20-30%
47% rostered
This is above the usual threshold, but just in case you can snag him, Murray is in a valuable spot as Baltimore’s leading, trusted back. It took a few weeks for him to get up to speed with the late arrival, but Ty’Son is on the outs and Latavius is the 1A. Murray would play 45 snaps while Le’Veon Bell logged 20 and Devonta Freeman was on for six. Murray had twice the snaps of Bell but 18 carries to Bell’s four, showing heavy faith in his running-down involvement.
Latavius Murray saw 78.3% of Baltimore's running back rushes today. That was highest for any Ravens back on the season. Previous high was Ty'Son Williams at 52% in Week 2.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 4, 2021
Samaje Perine (RB, CIN) - FAB Bid: 10-15%
2% rostered
Joe Mixon is considered week-to-week with a low-grade ankle sprain, but trusting Zac Taylor with injury reports is tough. Perine is the add ahead of Cincy’s Week 5 contest versus Green Bay, which will surely call for more passing than rushing. However, Week 6 against Detroit’s soft run D would be a great spot for Perine should Mixon still be unavailable.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 6-10%
29% rostered
I tried to raise the alarm last week but his rostered rate actually went down ahead of the KC matchup, so here we are again. Gainwell nearly split action with Miles Sanders, seeing nine opportunities to Sanders’ 10 throughout the game. While Sanders only mustered 13 yards on seven rushes, Gainwell turned three totes in 31 yards and a score while also looking more effective as a receiver. Philly isn’t shy about weaving Gainwell into red-zone packages and leaving Sanders on the sidelines.
Others to consider:
Darrel Williams (RB, KC) - FAB: 0-1% - 9% rostered
Alex Collins (RB, SEA) - FAB: 0-1% - 1% rostered
Brandon Bolden (RB, NE) - FAB: 0-1% - 2% rostered
Jeremy McNichols (RB, TEN) - FAB: 0-1% - 1% rostered
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers
Randall Cobb (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 6-8%
7% rostered
Cobb showed up as Aaron Rodgers' Mr. Reliable with five catches for 69 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Marquez Valdes-Scantling hitting the IR opened up more opportunity for wideouts behind Davante Adams and it’s clear that Cobb is preferred over Allen Lazard or Amari Rodgers right now. There's no guarantee that MVS simply steps into the No. 2 role again and we don't know how long he'll be out anyhow. Dial up Cobb!
Every single catch by Randall Cobb today either went for a TD or converted a 3rd down...
Damn is it nice to see him back in the Green and Gold pic.twitter.com/STaUtXXBy4
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) October 4, 2021
A.J. Green (WR, ARI) - FAB Bid: 6-8%
24% rostered
Green is benefiting from Arizona’s high-scoring ways, notching a touchdown with 67 yards on five catches in Week 4. Since a quiet debut, AJG has now crossed 100 yards or scored a TD in three straight games. Despite noise from Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore, they’re working behind DeAndre Hopkins and Green. San Francisco’s beleaguered secondary makes for another good matchup in Week 5.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
20% rostered
Corey Davis made the splash plays that stole the spotlight, but Crowder’s return still yielded a vintage 7-61-1 line. Zach Wilson surely appreciated a reliable option alongside Davis. Keelan Cole also delivered, but should cede work to Elijah Moore when he returns. Without a run game to lean on, Crowder should be a top-40 PPR option moving forward.
Van Jefferson (WR, LAR) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
5% rostered
Jefferson brought in all six targets for 90 yards and his second TD of 2021. He actually led the Rams WRs in catches and yards on a day where Matthew Stafford just looked off. Jefferson’s workload continues to ramp up and while he’s still off the field in two-wide sets, he ran 33 routes to Robert Woods’ 41 and Cooper Kupp’s 42. We’re getting there. He’s a viable 14-team option.
Others to consider:
Curtis Samuel (WR, WAS) - FAB: 3-5% - 40% rostered
Josh Gordon (WR, KC) - FAB: 2-3% - 32% rostered
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV) - FAB: 2-3% - 27% rostered
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG) - FAB: 0-1% - 3% rostered
Kalif Raymond (WR, DET) - FAB: 0-1% - 1% rostered
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
33% rostered
Schultz has now secured six catches in three of four games, scoring three touchdowns in his last three games. He’s emerged as the third receiver with Michael Gallup out and while the Cowboys are more balanced regarding run-pass than we like to see, Schultz and the Cowboys should still hang plenty of points on NYG in Week 5.
The 2nd-highest graded tight end in the NFL, according to PFF?
Dalton Schultz.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) October 4, 2021
Maxx Williams (TE, ARI) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
1% rostered
Williams made the most of his five targets on Sunday, catching all five of them for 66 yards and a score. His targets by week: 1, 7, 3, and 5. It’s not reliable volume but the Cardinals have scored over 30 points in each game thus far, so the starting TE who ran more routes than Rondale Moore (19 to 15) has appeal.
C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
2% rostered
After just 39 yards on four catches in Cincinnati’s first three games, Uzomah ran over a toothless Jags secondary for 95 yards and two TDs on five receptions. These weren’t cheap scores either, coming on 22- and 31-yard plays where he used his size and speed to reach paydirt. Don’t chase this too hard, as Tee Higgins’ return will muddy the target waters, but Cincy will need to pass often in Week 5 against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.
Dan Arnold (TE, JAC) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
3% rostered
Arnold “only” saw two targets on Thursday, hauling in both looks for 29 yards. Any involvement just three days after a trade is encouraging, and Jacksonville will need a solid receiving option to step up with D.J. Chark’s fractured ankle. Arnold could reach the TE tier that sees 6-8 looks per game on an offense often grasping at garbage time.
Cameron Brate (TE, TB) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
18% rostered
Brate only notched 29 yards on two catches at the Sunday night slopfest, but six targets is encouraging. The Bucs miss Rob Gronkowski and seem to view Brate as the better receiving option in Gronk’s mold compared to O.J. Howard, who seems to absorb more of the blocking.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
1% rostered
Seals-Jones saw four looks after Logan Thomas injured his hamstring and would be a viable deep-league streamer at the position for as long as Thomas is sidelined. It’s not a safe pay, but RSJ did have a 19-yard TD back in Week 2.
FAAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams
New England is available in roughly half of Yahoo leagues and gets a juicy matchup against the Texans in Week 5.
Minnesota Vikings Defense (vs. DET) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
14% rostered
The Vikings have held Seattle and Cleveland to a combined 31 offensive points over the last two games. Zero turnovers in that window have meant little DST scoring for us, but Jared Goff takes more risks than Russell Wilson or Baker Mayfield.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. CHI) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
11% rostered
The Raiders have only created three turnovers in their first three games but have multiple sacks in each contest. They’ll either face Justin Fields as he continues to find his NFL footing, or Andy Dalton. The Bears should be without David Montgomery after his knee injury, making this home matchup for LV even better.
Atlanta Falcons Defense (vs. NYJ) - FAB Bid: 0-1%
2% rostered
I know, Atlanta’s defense isn’t good and Zach Wilson took a step forward in Week 4. I get it. However, this is a London game and one decent game doesn’t elevate the Jets out of the crosshairs. Of course, so does Atlanta. This is for you aggressive streamers who simply need a team available nearly everywhere.
To those who can look forward to Week 6: Indianapolis (49% rostered) faces Houston at home. Let’s hope many drop them with Baltimore on tap for Week 5. Miami (24%) will face Jacksonville in another London game.
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