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Welcome to Week 5 of the WR/CB Matchups article.
This series used to be called "Matchups to Target and Avoid" but is now titled "Matchups to Target and Downgrade." Too many times a WR has a tough matchup and produces anyway. A difficult matchup is not a guarantee that a WR will underwhelm. On the flip side, an easy matchup doesn't always mean a huge game. There are a myriad of reasons a player might fail in an easy matchup and excel in a tough one. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
With that said, the Week 4 article did offer some pretty good results in terms of actionable advice. D.J. Moore, Tyler Boyd, DeVonta Smith, and Jamison Crowder were mentioned in the target section, while Terry McLaurin was highlighted. In the downgrade section, caution was provided in regards to three fairly high-rostered DFS plays in CeeDee Lamb, Cole Beasley, and Brandin Cooks. I also predicted that Tre Flowers would finally get benched, and he was. Unfortunately for Seahawks fans, his replacement Sidney Jones gave up a monster game to Deebo Samuel. Stephon Gilmore would have made sense for Seattle, but they've instead opted to stick to poor drafting and bad coaching while wasting Russell Wilson's prime years.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 5
Click image for full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
We start with Thursday Night Football when the Seahawks host the Rams. The aforementioned Sidney Jones will likely see a lot of Robert Woods, which gives Woods a bump. Seattle has actually been really good against slots, but Cooper Kupp is matchup-proof.
Speaking of matchup-proof, Tyreek Hill faces off with the stingy Buffalo secondary this week. It doesn't matter. Hill is a must-start every week and I will never put him in the downgrade section for two reasons. One, he's unstoppable due to his speed and two, he plays all over the formation.
I wrote about the wrong 49ers receiver last week, and it has become clear that the fantasy market was way off in drafting Brandon Aiyuk over Deebo Samuel this summer. Both have great matchups against the Cardinals' corners. However, don't be shocked if Aiyuk does flip the script at some point. People become way too declarative in terms of early-season trends. There's still more than 75% of the season left and things can and will change. Even if Aiyuk does remain a non-factor and Samuel finishes as a top-5 WR, just keep an open mind that there WILL be situations that change so drastically that we say "remember in Week 4 when we thought ___________?"
Corey Davis had a big day against the Titans in Week 4 and this week takes on a bad Falcons pass defense in London. Fire him up as a solid play.
Our good friend Eli Apple is now playing RCB due to injuries for the Bengals, which means Davante Adams gets an upgrade. He should bounce back from a relatively quiet Week 4 in this spot. Adams moves around a lot, but the good news is that Trae Waynes is also not that good, so Adams and Allen Lazard will both have advantageous matchups regardless.
The Chiefs have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing WR1's, so this is a smash spot for Stefon Diggs in potential shootout.
DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle get a beat up Tampa Bay secondary this week. Both are in good spots but need better QB efficiency, more aDOT, or more volume to reach their ceilings.
Marvin Jones was a bust last Thursday, but gets a boost this week against a bad Tennessee CB group as the clear top outside WR for Trevor Lawrence. Laviska Shenault Jr. also gets a bump without D.J. Chark, as the Titans have given up the second-most fantasy points to slots this season.
Washington's defense has been abominable despite having some previously-good CBs in their secondary. Whatever the issues are for the Football Team's defense, Marquez Callaway and the Saints receivers all have easy matchups based on this season's points allowed.
Jaylon Johnson has been good for the Bears, but Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley are easily exploitable. Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow both have easy matchups.
I didn't think I'd be mentioning John Ross in this space this season, but the Cowboys have funneled production to RWRs thanks to Trevon Diggs. Ross (or Darius Slayton) might be worth a dart throw in DFS. Kadarius Toney (or Sterling Shepard) also gets the burnable Jourdan Lewis. The lesson here is that Diggs is good and the rest of the Dallas secondary is bad.
Indianapolis will likely have to start Isaiah Rodgers, which gives the Ravens outside WRs a bump when they line up on the right. That's Sammy Watkins more than anyone else so he gets an upgrade.
I don't know what's going on with the Titans' WRs, but if A.J. Brown plays it's a smash spot against Tyson Campbell, who has moved from slot to LCB and hasn't been good.
Finally, the Eagles are fresh off giving up a huge game to Tyreek Hill, but still represent a tough matchup for outside receivers. I don't know who will play the most slot this week for Carolina, but Terrace Marshall Jr. has played there more than anyone and Avonte Maddox is not nearly as good as Steven Nelson or Darius Slay.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
On the other side of the Thursday Night game, Jalen Ramsey will likely cover D.K. Metcalf more than any other Rams CB. Metcalf did not produce much against him last year. The Rams are also good against LWRs, so Tyler Lockett gets a downgrade as well.
I mentioned the Eagles' outside corners as tough matchups earlier, so D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson will have it tough when they line up outside this week. Moore is definitely matchup-proof at this point, so don't worry.
Michael Pittman Jr. has target share going for him, which is usually way more important than matchup. However, his QB has not been efficient and he has to deal with the tough Baltimore corners this week. I'd consider sitting him if you're stacked at WR. In the same game, Zach Pascal gets a downgrade as the Ravens have been great at limiting slot production.
Mike Williams is fresh off his first disappointing performance. Hopefully he doesn't revert back to his old underwhelming form. The Browns have been good against WR1's and slots so both he and Keenan Allen get downgrades. You probably aren't benching either though.
Kenny Golladay has to deal with Trevon Diggs, who has had at least one interception in every game this season. Kenny G is still a decent play based on role, especially if Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton sit again.
Diontae Johnson doesn't have a drop this season but his QB looks cooked. Denver represents a tough matchup.
Odell Beckham Jr. has to deal with the Chargers stingy secondary this week. I mentioned the Chargers as a darkhorse defense prior to the season. I bet they get tougher as the season goes on.
The Patriots are fresh off stymying the Bucs' prolific passing attack, and will go from game planning against Tom Brady to this week facing the legendary Davis Mills. Brandin Cooks started the season off hot, but I'd be looking elsewhere this week. He may be shadowed by J.C. Jackson.
Jalen Reagor popped in optimizers last week, didn't do much, and now has to deal with Donte Jackson. The Panthers have been terrific against RWRs this season.
Tyler Boyd is coming off a productive game against a bad Jacksonville pass defense, and Joe Burrow looks great early on. This week Boyd will face off against a Packers defense that has given up the least amount of points to slot WRs this season.
Tampa Bay's outside WRs get a tough draw against Miami, with Antonio Brown specifically slated to see more of Xavien Howard based on alignment data. It's not the best spot for him.
Joe Haden has been terrific for the Steelers, so Tim Patrick will see a matchup downgrade in addition to a potential QB downgrade. I'd look elsewhere.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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