RADIO
Week 4’s Monday night matchup between the Raiders and Chargers looked like it wasn't going to deliver after a random 35-minute lightning delay for an indoor stadium. Las Vegas struggled to move the ball in the first half and went into the half trailing the Chargers 21-0. The Raiders found a spark in the third quarter to cut the lead to 21-14 before ultimately losing 28-14. Derek Carr was constantly under pressure and fell well short of his 400-yard per game passing average (196 yards, two touchdowns, one interception). Meanwhile, the Chargers got strong performances from Justin Herbert (222 yards and three passing touchdowns) and Austin Ekeler (15 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown, three receptions for 28 yards and a touchdown) to secure a win that moved them into a tie at the top of the AFC West.
On the surface, Week 5’s game between the Colts and Ravens looks to be a clunker. Indianapolis was able to move to 1-3 after beating Miami in Week 4, but they are navigating numerous key injuries and struggled to move the ball the first three weeks of the season. Carson Wentz has been efficient but has yet to put up big numbers this season. Eric Fisher has struggled at times coming off last season’s Achilles’ tendon injury and the Colts will once again be without Quenton Nelson on the left side. Jonathan Taylor has had a solid season but isn’t living up to the expectations of a fringe first round pick in fantasy drafts. The Colts are finally getting healthy on defense, but they may still struggle to stop the efficient Baltimore rushing attack.
On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens head into this Monday night game with a 3-1 record after a dominating game against Denver in Week 4. Despite suffering major injuries on both sides of the ball in the preseason (including their top three returning running backs from 2020 and cornerback Marcus Peters), Baltimore is still leaning on their run game and mixing in some more passing. Baltimore has played most of the season without Rashod Bateman and Miles Boykin at wide receiver, yet Lamar still has three games with at least 30 passing attempts. Baltimore should start getting those guys healthy again, but they will undoubtedly still run their offense through the rushing attack. The Ravens are using a rotation of athletic pass rushers to generate pressure, which could be a problem for the Colts’ makeshift offensive line. Here is this weeks’ Monday night breakdown of the Colts and Ravens.
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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Game time: Monday, October 11th @ 8:15 p.m.
Game line: Baltimore -7
Game Total: 46
Must Starts
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Lamar Jackson is a guaranteed must-start if he is on your fantasy rosters. Through four games, Jackson is completing 60.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards and four touchdowns and three interceptions in an offense featuring just two dependable targets in the passing game. He’s able to sustain his value as a top-10 fantasy quarterback thanks to his rushing upside. Jackson has 42 carries for 279 yards and two touchdowns on the season. The Ravens are 2-0 in their last two games despite Detroit and Denver challenging the Ravens to throw the ball. There is a chance that Jackson gets some weapons back this week in the form of Miles Boykin and rookie first-rounder Rashod Bateman. They would inevitably give Lamar stronger targets on the outside than he has had for most of the year. Regardless, Lamar’s rushing upside to go with a solid passing floor make him a must-start against a good but not great Colts defense in 2021.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Jonathan Taylor hasn’t lived up to his potential as a first or second-round fantasy draft pick so far this season, but his skill set makes it impossible to position him on the bench. The good news is Taylor is getting a consistent role in the Colts’ offense through the first four weeks. The bad news? It hasn’t really turned into much fantasy production. Taylor has at least 10 carries, one target, and 51 yards in every game this season. Unfortunately, the Colts’ have been using Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines in game script-dependent roles. Taylor finally had his first 100-yard rushing game and a touchdown against an overwhelmed Dolphins’ defense. Baltimore has been average against running backs this season (18.1 fantasy points allowed per game), but the Colts’ offensive line is beaten up and could struggle to keep open rushing lanes against Baltimore’s front-7.
Latavius Murray (RB, BAL)
After three weeks of taking a backseat to Ty'Son Williams, Latavius Murray took over the Baltimore backfield in Week 4 against Denver. Murray carried the ball 18 times for 59 yards and a touchdown while not recording a target. Murray has been efficient on the ground for Baltimore this season, so this is probably what you can expect from him going forward. The Colts have been solid against the opponent’s rushing attacks this season (14.7 fantasy points per game), but those numbers are boosted by the anemic Dolphins’ run game and two pass-heavy games against their injured secondary against the Seahawks and Rams. Assuming Ty’Son Williams is inactive again, Murray will once again be the lead back in a run-heavy offense in a game Baltimore should be winning.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. has grown into his role as the Colts’ WR1 with T.Y. Hilton injured. Pittman had a quiet Week 1 against Seattle (four targets, three receptions, and 29 yards). However, in Weeks 2 through 4, Pittman was targeted 32 times and caught 20 passes for 250 yards. Pittman was missed in the red zone several times during that span, so he’s got some hidden touchdown upside as well. Despite various injuries in the secondary, Baltimore has done a really good job limiting opposing wide receivers in fantasy this season (20.1 points per game, 9th best this season). Pittman Jr. is a volume-based FLEX play heading into Week 5.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown has picked up where he left off at the end of 2020, catching 19 of his 28 targets for 326 yards and three touchdowns. Had he not dropped three potential scores against Detroit in Week 3, he would be a lock as a top-12 wide receiver. Brown has functioned well as the top receiving threat for Baltimore while primarily competing with Mark Andrews in the passing game. There is a possibility that Miles Boykin and Rashod Bateman are activated for this game thanks to the long practice week, so we don’t know for how much longer we can count on Brown as the only perimeter receiving threat of note. However, even when those pieces of the passing game returning, we do know that Brown has the most chemistry with Lamar Jackson and should continue to be prominently featured in this passing game. Brown is a must-start against a Colts secondary allowing 28.6 fantasy points per week to wide receivers, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL in 2021.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Heading into the 2021 season, Mark Andrews was considered one of the unquestioned top-5 tight ends to draft in the early rounds to get an advantage at the position. Through four games he sits at the TE9 in total points (43.3) and TE10 in points per game (10.8), well below his expectations. Andrews started this year slow in his first two games (10 targets, 8 receptions, 77 yards) before finding his footing in Weeks 3 and 4 (15 targets, 10 receptions, 176 yards). Andrews still hasn’t converted a touchdown, but that could change against the Colts. Indianapolis is allowing just 7.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends this season, but they are one of 16 teams to give up multiple touchdowns to tight ends this season. Andrews is a must-start this week unless you have a tight end that has a more defined role in their team’s passing attack.
Consider Sitting
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
The Carson Wentz experience has been up and down for Indianapolis this season. Wentz is completing 63% of his passes for 920 yards and five touchdowns with just one interception. Despite the efficiency, Wentz has just one game with over 250 passing yards despite having at least 31 passing attempts in each game this season. Wentz has also taken 10 sacks through his first four games. Baltimore has been solid against quarterbacks this year (17.4 fantasy points per game this season), thanks to a bend-but-don’t-break defense and athletic pass rushers (10 sacks). With Wentz still recovering from sprained ankles and the Colts’ offensive line still finding its footing without Quenton Nelson, Wentz is a fade this week in a tough matchup.
Ty'Son Williams/Le'Veon Bell/Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL)
After starting the season as the most efficient runner in Baltimore (27 carries for 164 yards and one touchdown, five receptions on seven targets for 45 yards), Ty'Son Williams was a healthy scratch in Week 4 thanks to Baltimore’s lack of confidence in his ability as a pass blocker. If Williams is active in Week 5, then he is worth an upside play given his efficiency so far this year. The Ravens had both Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman active in Week 5 without Ty’Son Williams, but neither had a role worth noting. Bell had four carries for 11 yards and played in 7% of the team’s offensive snaps. He was sent back to the practice squad after the game. Meanwhile, Freeman was on the field for 9% of Baltimore’s offensive plays but totaled just one carry for four yards. Neither Bell nor Freeman offers much fantasy value at this time.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND)
Jack Doyle started the season well, catching eight of 12 targets for 85 yards and looking like a legitimate target in a shallow passing attack. Since then, Doyle has just three targets, two catches, and 34 yards. More importantly, Doyle was on the field for just 30% of the Colts’ snaps in Week 4 against the Dolphins. Baltimore has been bad against talented tight ends this season, but Doyle is worth a fade in fantasy lineups until his snap share rises.
Potential Sleepers
Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)
Nyheim Hines is always capable of having a big day, but it typically has to come in games where the Colts are trailing and staying in their passing offense. In Weeks 1 and 3, Hines combined for 15 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown while adding 11 receptions on 14 targets for 102 yards. In both games, the Colts were down early and trying to climb back into the game. In Weeks 2 and 4, the Colts were close or ahead late and Hines combined for three rushes for 11 yards and three receptions on four targets for 22 yards. Ultimately, Hines is a player worth starting if you think Baltimore races out to a lead. If you think the Colts keep this game close, then fade Hines for an option with a more consistent role in their team’s offense.
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
There is a chance that Rashod Bateman, Baltimore’s first-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft, makes his debut Monday against the Colts. Bateman was tearing up training camp before a core surgery put him on the short-term IR heading into the season. If Bateman is good to go, there is a great chance that he will have a limited snap count since the team will still be trying to get him into game shape. However, if he is able to play a strong number of snaps, he can have a massive impact. Bateman will likely be put on plenty of short to intermediate routes early in his career, an area that Lamar can hit at a high percentage. With teams working to take away Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews in the passing game, Bateman can have a huge impact out of the gate against softer coverage.
Sammy Watkins (WR, BAL)
Sammy Watkins has been ridiculously consistent operating as the WR2 in the Baltimore offense. Watkins has three straight seven target games after receiving eight targets in Week 1. He also has four straight games with four receptions. Unfortunately, that workload hasn’t resulted in high-level fantasy output. Watkins has yet to find the end zone and has gone over 70 receiving yards just once this season (Week 1). As we have seen in the past, Watkins is good for at least one boom week per season at any time. The Colts haven’t been strong in the secondary this offseason so it could very well be on Monday night.
Zach Pascal (WR, IND)
Zach Pascal isn’t highly regarded as a fantasy receiver, yet he consistently produces in Indianapolis thanks to a lack of receiving weapons around him. Pascal has at least five targets in all four of the Colts’ games this season. He has at least four receptions in three games and has exceeded 40 receiving yards twice. The fourth-year receiver has three touchdowns on the season, although he hasn’t had one since Week 2. Carson Wentz looks Pascal’s way early and often in the red zone, which gives him an appealing upside for teams navigating injuries in Week 5.
Mo Alie-Cox (TE, IND)
Mo Alie-Cox played the most snaps of the season (69%) in Week 4 against Miami and delivered solid fantasy production (three receptions on five targets for 42 yards and two touchdowns). The Colts leaned heavily on Alie-Cox’s size and athleticism in the red zone and he delivered, including making an impressive contested catch for his second touchdown. Few players have the size and athleticism of Alie-Cox, making him a dangerous target when the Colts get inside the 10. There is considerable risk starting Alie-Cox (only one game over a 52% snap share and six total targets before Week 5), but with the tight end position being a desolate wasteland for fantasy production, his touchdown upside is appealing.
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