RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team differently than the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, 10 games are being played with just three games having points totals above 50 points. What we could see is consolidated percent rostered and perhaps some good leverage opportunities.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is playing in the game with the highest total (55 points) and a passing defense that is ranked No. 27 in passing yards allowed (293.4 per game). The other thing that is nice about Kansas City is there is a consolidated target share. Tyreek Hill averages 10.2 targets per game, while Travis Kelce averages 8.4 targets per game. Hill has a 27.9% target share and Kelce a 23% target share. Kansas City is coming off a loss as well. This is a game where they could go out and make a statement.
The challenge with rostering is price. They are so expensive, how do you build a competitive team around it? That's a question I am going to try to answer as I build a Kansas City stack this weekend.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City has the No. 28 passing defense and Terry McLaurin is averaging nearly 10 targets per game as well. He is the perfect bring-back option or a great one-off play to look at in your lineups this weekend.
(2) Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore has the No. 28 passing defense (tied with Kansas City), allowing 296.4 passing yards per game. The Chargers pass the ball 63% of the time and the game has the 2nd highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams each average about 10 targets per game and the two of them combined have garnered 52% of the team's total targets. Marquise Brown has a 24.5% target share on Baltimore and is a good bring-back option. So is Mark Andrews as he averages the same amount of targets as Brown does.
Another option would be to pair Lamar Jackson with one receiver between Andrews or Brown and either bring back with one of Allen and Williams or both Allen and Williams. I do think Jackson will be more popular than Justin Herbert this week, so you may want to avoid that combination and leverage the field with Herbert instead of Jackson.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals
The entire run game for Cincinnati is up in the air with Joe Mixon potentially being out and Samaje Perine on the COVID list. Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase each average seven targets per game in this offense. Cincinnati is usually in the bottom third in pass play percentage, but I see them getting it bumped up this week with question marks in the backfield. Detroit is league average in pass defense, allowing 251.6 yards per game. D'Andre Swift leads the Lions with an average of seven targets per game and is the top bring-back option in this game.
Additionally, the game has a high total of 47.5 points. With only a few games at or above 50 points, 47.5 points aren't that far off from 50 or so. I do not think people will go to this game as often as they should and it provides a sneaky route to the top of the leaderboards. All that needs to happen is for one of the top games to fail and for this one to go off.
Final Thoughts
With fewer games on the slate than previous weeks and fewer games over 50, it can create opportunities where a handful of players from stacks are rostered at a high percentage. A way to get potential leverage on the field is to go to those games with totals in the high 40s that might be overlooked or to go to the games in which the run game will be popular and hope they pass the ball more.
When I play tournaments and am picking three to five lineups to use, I am OK if two of the three or four of the five miss, because I know that if one hits, it will be a profitable day. I also know the chances of all my lineups missing are higher than the chances of having a top 1% lineup on the day. Bankroll management is important when playing GPPs: stick to no more than two to five percent of your bankroll on entries.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 6 DFS Stacks!
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