RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team differently than the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, 10 games are being played with just two games having points totals above 50 points. What we could see is consolidated percent rostered and perhaps some good leverage opportunities.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs
You just might as well pencil me in for a Kansas City stack every single week. Every week they have one of the best chances to be the top stack on the slate and they still come in less popular than I expect. We have the highest total of the week, 57.5 points, and they'll be facing a passing defense that is No. 24 in pass defense, allowing 276.3 passing yards per game.
The challenge with rostering is price. They are so expensive, so how do you build a competitive team around it? If doing just a pairing, I would go with Tyreek Hill. Hill has a 27.5% target share and Tennessee is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL. Additionally, Travis Kelce has a neck injury and while he is expected to play, won't be 100%
(2) Los Angeles Rams
Detroit is No. 19 in pass defense, allowing 252.3 passing yards per game. Cooper Kupp has a 34% target share and is necessary to have in your stack with Matthew Stafford. Darrell Henderson would be a great option as a second player to include in the stack; he averages 3.2 targets per game and with the game having a large point spread, he will likely see many touches on the ground against the No. 26 run defense in the NFL.
D'Andre Swift would be a potential bring-back option if you're looking to have a bring-back player. He leads the Lions in targets, averaging seven per game. The Rams have the No. 21 pass defense, so they will allow yards through the air.
(3) Tennessee - If A.J. Brown Is Back
This I would classify as a sneaky stack. It is known how bad Kansas City's run defense is and Derrick Henry is just balling out of control right now. This is a smash spot for Derrick Henry. But what if? What if Henry gets hurt, or Kansas City puts eight guys in the box every play, or if Tennessee's offensive coordinator tries to get cute this week? Kansas City has the No. 25 pass defense in the NFL, allowing 277.3 passing yards per game. Both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones did not practice on Wednesday. If they are both out, then I hate this stack. I would consider using a Tennesee stack of Ryan Tannehill - AJ Brown - Julio Jones (if he plays) in a non-Henry lineup if I was playing 5 or more lineups.
(4) Green Bay Packers
The Packers play at a slow pace. They are 23rd in plays per game and 21st in pass play percentage. Washington has the No. 32 pass defense though. Dead last. They did just play Patrick Mahomes, which doesn't help, but still. Last. Aaron Rodgers will know this and want to go off. Washington also has a below-average run defense, allowing 113.5 rushing yards per game, so Aaron Jones is viable here. Jones also averages 3.83 targets per game. Davante Adams has a 36.46% target share. I'm going to run a Rodgers - Jones - Adams stack. No one will look to this game because of the slow pace, but the game total is 48 points, one of the highest on the slate.
Final Thoughts
With fewer games on the slate than previous weeks and fewer games over 50, it can create opportunities where a handful of players from stacks are rostered at a high percentage. A way to get potential leverage on the field is to go to those games with totals in the high 40s that might be overlooked or to go to the games in which the run game will be popular and hope they pass the ball more.
When I play tournaments and am picking three to five lineups to use, I am OK if two of the three or four of the five miss, because I know that if one hits, it will be a profitable day. I also know the chances of all my lineups missing are higher than the chances of having a top 1% lineup on the day. Bankroll management is important when playing GPPs: stick to no more than two to five percent of your bankroll on entries.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 7 DFS Stacks!
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