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Has any NBA bettor ever looked at an eleven game slate, negatively? There are literally thousands of bets that a massive slate creates, but MonkeyKnifeFight only lays out a select few each night, for each game, and most of the time you can see exactly why. They tend to focus around players who thrive on inconsistency, for example, Mitchell Robinson's rebounds.
His focus is on-ball defense and boxing out, so rarely does he attack the boards in hopes for a high-rebound game. His projected rebound total is at 7.5 for a reason. Despite it seeming like a more than reasonable goal, Robinson's style of play when he is playing a center that stretches the floor, he doesn't generate rebounds. Make sure that you are analyzing the game from as many angles as you can before betting, and feel free to ask questions in the NBA Chat Room.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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POR @ CLE
C.J. McCollum (POR) MORE 21.5 Points - Evan Mobley (CLE) MORE 8.5 Rebounds
There have only been three games this season where C.J. McCollum has scored below 22 points, so there's no reason to shy away from him against this Cavaliers defense. As long as his shot attempts remain consistent, which they should based on Portland's offense, he's going to be force-fed production and that means doing most of the scoring. The Trail Blazers are on a losing skid, so they're likely to fight for this win before hosting a back-to-back later this week against the Pacers and Lakers.
Beating the Cavaliers, however, doesn't come easily. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are a very solid frontcourt tandem and Collin Sexton's shift to shooting guard has opened up room for Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio to run an efficient point guard role. This is irrelevant to Mobley's rebounding potential tonight, but since Allen and Jusuf Nurkic are going to busy boxing one another out, Mobley amongst others, are going to clean up on rebounds.
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NYK @ IND
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 34.5 Fantasy Points - R.J. Barrett (NYK) MORE 28.5 Fantasy Points
Malcolm Brogdon is supposed to be returning from injury, so until we get confirmation, this wager is very much up in the air. Brogdon, when healthy, has no problems flying over a 35 fantasy point projected. He is not the type of player to play through an injury and put up a bad game, so if he plays, it's hard not to like the idea of him going over.
For R.J. Barrett, as long as he keeps playing well, this is the type of spark the Knicks always wanted from him. He doesn't need to stretch the floor, but if he can create havoc on the wings and make smart decisions in terms of when to attack and when to pass, he's going to continue this hot-streak. The Pacers defense isn't terrible, but the Knicks are throwing too many weapons at teams for them to put all their focus into one or two players. Indiana plays good team defense, but based on matchups, Barrett lined up to be the focal point of the offense once again.
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DAL @ SAS
Luka Doncic (DAL) MORE 26.5 Points - Dejounte Murray (SAS) MORE 17.5 Points
The last time these teams played, the Mavericks were down more than 20 points in the first half, but managed to fight back and win. Luka Doncic has had little to no help this season and Dallas' roster is borderline abysmal in terms of providing support. Doncic continues to have to go above and beyond each night and we've actively seen how little the Spurs can do in limiting Doncic' offense. Unless something drastic happens, Doncic is lined up for big games every night. It's just a matter of if he capitalizes on the usage.
Dejounte Murray and the Spurs haven't been all that much better, but organization on the court sets them a few levels above the Mavericks in terms of consistency. Yes, they lost the first matchup between these two in horrible fashion, but when we are betting on players to out-perform projections, winning doesn't really matter. Murray performs consistently and despite the pass-first mentality of the team, they know when to feed the hot-hand and when to let shooters shoot. If Murray's projected remains below 20 points, there's plenty of reasons to roll with the over.
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CHA @ GSW
Miles Bridges (CHA) MORE 37.5 Fantasy Points - Draymond Green (GSW) LESS 37.5 Points
Miles Bridges has been doing everything for the Hornets this season alongside LaMelo Ball. Although Ball is still the primary ball-handler, Bridges contributes in every category and does it consistently. Bridges made a leap this year and it was evident from start of the season. If he continues on this path, there's no question who the most improved player is and it's been backed up by his top-10 fantasy value thus far. The Warriors defense doesn't fare well against athletic forwards that can play above their size, so look for another quality outing.
That used to be Draymond Green, but his scoring has dropped off significantly since his early years, and Green doesn't surpass steep projections as naturally as he used to. His defensive stats are always a huge bonus, but he just doesn't take enough shots for anyone to assume he is going for 40 FPTS tonight. If anything, he is going to be dealing with the Hornets offense for most of the time he is on the court.
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