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Welcome to Week 9, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on November 7th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Matthew Stafford ($19,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,477 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 56.9% (1st), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.8% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- Fantasy Points Per Game: 25.3 (DK), 23.43 (FD).
If we're lucky, we should see a shootout tonight. The Titans have turned it around, winning four straight. Unfortunately, MVP candidate Derrick Henry will miss most if not all of the rest of the season. This could actually benefit Stafford in tonight's game, though, forcing Tennesee to throw the ball more and creating a higher-paced game where both teams see a lot of possessions. The 52.5 point total is an indicator that both teams should be pushing the ball down the field and scoring a lot of points.
Cooper Kupp ($18,600 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 90 targets, 63 catches, 924 yards, 10 touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 90.57% snap rate, 32.85% target rate, 35.09% red zone target rate, eight end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs #1 WR: -4.4% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- WR/CB Matchup (vs Elijah Holden): 14% targets per route, 67% catch rate, 0.33 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
- Fantasy Points Per Game: 28.7 (DK), 22.92 (FD).
There's no reason to not continue to ride the Kupp train tonight. He's a cheaper option at captain than Stafford on DK, so if you need a small amount of savings he's your guy. In a game script that appears to be high scoring, Kupp should be able to maintain a similar target rate, as well as take advantage of the strong matchup against Elijah Holden.
Other Captains/MVPs: A.J. Brown, Jeremy McNichols, Ryan Tannehill
DFS Flex Plays
Ryan Tannehill ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,002 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 23 rushing attempts, 165 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 12.4% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -4.4% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
- Fantasy Points Per Game: 18.7 (DK), 17.95 (FD).
With perhaps the MVP favorite Derrick Henry sidelined indefinitely, the pressure heats up on Ryan Tannehill to lead the Tennessee offense without Henry to rely on. While losing a player as pivotal as Henry should inevitably hurt the Titans offense from a "real-game" perspective, it will likely influence Tannehill to throw the ball more, creating more fantasy value just based on opportunity. Tannehill should hit value regardless if the Rams grow a large lead early or if the game is close the entire way, and he's a solid 1.5x option in GPPs on both sites.
Darrell Henderson Jr. ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 110 attempts, 507 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns, 24 targets, 16 receptions, 141 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 77.93% snap rate, 58.82% attempt rate, 53.66% red zone attempt rate, 77.78% attempt rate within the 5yd line.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -3.2% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -3.5% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): -11.9% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
- Fantasy Points Per Game: 17.5 (DK), 16.4 (FD).
The spread in this game is 7.5 in favor of Los Angeles, so bookmakers tend to think that the Rams should win this one easily. In the event this is true, Henderson should be able to get a ton of work. I think he gets a ton of work regardless, as he's rushed over 15 times in four of seven games started, and has logged at least 15 points in six of seven games on DraftKings and five of seven games on FanDuel.
Other Flex Options: Robert Woods, Jeremy McNichols, Julio Jones
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Higbee ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 36 targets, 30 receptions, 273 yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 87.2% snap rate, 13.14% target rate, 19.3% red-zone target rate, four endzone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -33.2% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- TE Matchup (vs Monty Rice): 17% targets per route, 83% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
- Fantasy Points per Game: 8.7 (DK), 6.79 (FD).
In a slate that has as many studs as this one does, we'll need to find value somewhere. While the Titans are solid generally speaking against the tight end position, the individual matchup against Monty Rice creates value for Higbee. He's logged at least three receptions and at least 25 yards in his last three games, and we hope that his end zone targets can create a touchdown to really hit home and make him optimal tonight.
Adrian Peterson ($3,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- Making his season debut, with no previous 2021 stats or data.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -2.4% (9th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -11.3% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): -4.1% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
Adrian Peterson will make his season debut for the Titans tonight. The 36-year-old running back joined Tennessee in the wake of the Derrick Henry injury, and it's been reported he's in great shape and has shown high energy and effort at practice this week. While I think Los Angeles's defense is better suited to defend a "between the tackles" running back like Peterson, I don't expect Mike Vrabel to throw out the red zone playbook he's been using with Derrick Henry, and it's likely that if the Titans are in a goal to go situation, Peterson will likely be getting the carries.
Other Value Plays: Geoff Swaim, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Marcus Johnson
Overall Slate Note
This is a slate with two high-powered offenses, but both offenses have a decent amount of consolidation as far as rushing attempts and targets. As far as the game script goes, I'll be building two main different sets of lineups. The first set will be the "Vegas" game build, where I'll be high on Los Angeles's offense as a whole while running back the Titans passing game. I'll be building "shootout" lineups also, mixing and matching between both pass offenses as well as running backs like McNichols, Henderson, and Peterson. I wouldn't recommend playing both McNichols and Peterson in the same lineup, though, mostly because of the uncertainty around touches. I'll build a few "Rams-onslaught" lineups as well, making sure I have the Rams defense and Darrell Henderson in all of those lineups.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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