RADIO
If we thought Week 8 had some weird moments, we were not at all prepared for the wackiness of Week 9. At multiple times during the 1 PM games, I was watching a game or checking scores and thinking:
Let's do a quick rundown: the Bills lost to the Jaguars. The Cowboys got embarrassed by the Broncos. The Rams got thumped at home to a Titans team without Derrick Henry. The Chiefs continued to be unable to move the ball even against a Packers secondary that had no Jaire Alexander. Sam Darnold apparently decided to play for the New England Patriots in the middle of the game. The Saints tried to beat the Falcons by riding Mark Ingram Jr. and Trevor Siemian, and the 49ers welcomed Greg Kittle back by being destroyed by a Cardinals offense without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins.
The top-10 defenses of the week feature the Jaguars (vs Buffalo), the Titans (vs the Rams), the Giants (vs Las Vegas), and both Miami and Houston, who played one of the ugliest football games you'll ever see. Unless you happened to watch that Bills game. As a result, I only had five of the top-10 defenses correct, which is the worst week of the season for me.
However, I'm going to reiterate the idea of not over-reacting. We should take in the information and see which of it might be actionable, like the resurgence of the Titans defense or the Cardinals' and Vikings' ability to overcome injuries to key defensive players, but we shouldn't over-react and start to target defenses against the Bills or think of the Giants as a top-10 unit. Sometimes there is flukiness in the NFL. Remember when everybody unloaded half of their waiver dollars to chase the performances of Rondale Moore and Kadarius Toney? We haven't seen much close to those one-week efforts since then. Try to think of defenses in the same way and prioritize the season-long information we have because a fantasy defense factors into your fantasy team's point roster construction in the same way as any other position.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly, as I did by bumping the Patriots down to 7th when Christian McCaffrey was going to play - whoops.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 10 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 354.8 yards per game and 23.4 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 10 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Divided by Games Played
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Before we get started, if you're looking for Rest of Season Rankings, check the article here or keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
One of the things that didn't collapse for the Bills on Sunday against the Jaguars was their defense. Much like Pittsburgh in Week 1, Jacksonville used quick-hitting passing to try and limit the effectiveness of the Bills' pass rush, but the Bills were still able to record a turnover and two sacks while also allowing only nine points. They get another uninspiring offense this week when they travel to take on the Jets. As of now, we have no idea who the Jets will have under center. Both Zach Wilson and Mike White will reportedly be ready for practice, but regardless of who is under center, it shouldn't make you scared to fire up the Bills' defense against a Jets offense that allows the 4th-most points to opposing defenses in a game where they absolutely need to make a statement.
The Cardinals played Sunday without the aforementioned Murray, and Hopkins, and also J.J. Watt and Rashard Lawrence. They still traveled to San Francisco and allowed under 300 yards of total offense, while recording three turnovers and five sacks. They'll now play a Panthers team that is 25th in the NFL in sacks allowed and will likely have a new starting quarterback next week, which, actually, may be worse for the Cardinals defense. P.J. Walker hasn't been good, but Sam Darnold has just been outright brutal the last few weeks. Regardless of who is under center, we're not going to have much confidence in them attacking the Cardinals deep and we should expect a couple of turnovers against this defensive unit. On the season, the Panthers give up the 2nd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so if I have my 2nd ranked defense going up against the 2nd worst offense, I feel pretty good.
The Bucs come off a bye this week against a mediocre Washington offense, which is allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bucs have remained stout against the run and are 5th in the NFL in turnover rate, which is great news against Taylor Heinicke and this Washington team. The only knock against Tampa Bay has been their lack of pass rush. This isn't the same team that steamrolled the Chiefs offensive line in the Super Bowl. They are 24th in the NFL in sacks, 17th in pressure rate, and 19th in QB hurry rate. It's a little worrisome, especially against a Washington offense that's 10th in the NFL in sacks allowed, but Washington is also 23rd in turnovers given up, so I think that is where Tampa earns its fantasy points this week.
The Steelers' defense looked pretty strong for most of the Monday night game before allowing a late touchdown drive to Justin Fields (perhaps aided by the karma of an atrocious taunting penalty). Overall, this Steelers defense has been solid, ranking 9th in sacks and 3rd in pressure rate; however, they haven't been getting many turnovers and give up their fair share of chunk plays. Still, I think the matchup against the Lions favors them as the Lions allow the 21st-most sacks in the NFL and the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Detroit doesn't have the personnel to beat Pittsburgh deep, which I think will allow Pittsburgh to key in on the line of scrimmage more and cause a bit of havoc.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
This Ravens defense remains a mystery. They have the pieces to be a solid unit, but they simply haven't been, ranking dead last in the NFL in yards per play, 27th in sacks, and 27th in turnover rate; yet also being 4th in pressure rate and 9th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. However, despite their inconsistent performance, they get another week of potential fantasy relevance thanks to their matchup against Miami, who gives up the 5th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. On Sunday, Miami faced a Texans defense that has been statistically worse than Baltimore in most areas and was only able to gain 262 total yards while also allowing four sacks and turning the ball over five times. Now, some of that may have had to do with Jacoby Brissett being under center, which isn't likely next week, but Miami's offense also simply isn't good and they're 24th in the NFL in sacks allowed. Baltimore remains a strong play this Sunday, despite their uneven effort so far.
The Rams didn't look great on Sunday night, but the reality is that a lot of that was because of offensive inefficiency and turnovers. Their defense really did what we expected against a Derrick Henry-less Titans team. The Rams allowed only 194 total yards while recording one turnover and three sacks. The 49ers' offense is certainly better now with George Kittle back, but Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell are both banged up, and I simply don't think it's a team with that much explosive upside on offense. They rank 26th in the NFL in offensive turnover rate against a Rams defense that is 8th-best in defensive turnover rate. I expect that to be the story of the game.
Coming into the season, I had written up the Browns as one of my favorite draft targets. They then proceeded to fall flat on their face with a bunch of fantasy duds to start the year. Now, they're climbing back up my rankings despite remaining 29th in the NFL in turnover rate. The key is the pass rush, the Browns are 2nd in pressure rate and 2nd in sacks, while also being 3rd in yards allowed per play. This week they'll face a trendy Patriots team that is really very middle of the pack as an offense. The Patriots' defense was primarily responsible for wins against the Chargers and Panthers, while their other recent win was against a bad Jets team. The Patriots offense is 15th in yards per play, 14th in sacks allowed, and 25th in turnover rate. They also give up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which makes the Browns a solid play this week.
The Cowboys as a team laid an egg against Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos, losing 30-16 on Sunday. The real problem for Dallas came on the ground, where they allowed 190 rushing yards to the Broncos, including 111 to Javonte Williams and 80 to Melvin Gordon. That's been a bit of a sore spot this season for Dallas, as they rank 19th in yards allowed per carry, so it's something they certainly need to address, but I just don't see it being a major issue this week. Atlanta shocked the Saints on Sunday, but this team is 31st in yards per rush, so they are not beating anybody on the ground. That means Matt Ryan will have to attack the Cowboys turnover-happy secondary through the air without Calvin Ridley. I'll bet on the Cowboys all day in that situation.
The Patriots' defense has been on fire lately. We can't really argue that and, as a result, they've jumped up into the top-10 of my season-long rankings. They're 4th in turnover rate, 5th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 6th in QB hurry rate. I came into this week fully expecting to put them higher, but then I looked into the Browns offense more. Because of Baker Mayfield's struggles and the Odell Beckham Jr. drama, I expected the Browns to be a mediocre fantasy offense, but they're actually allowing the 7th-fewest points to opposing defenses. They're top-10 in offensive scoring rate and turnover rate, so they put points on the board without really turning the ball over much. A lot of that has to do with the way they ride Nick Chubb and the running game. They are 25th in sacks allowed, so there is potential there for the Patriots to gain some fantasy points, and you simply can't bench a defense that has been playing this week, but I think this is going to be their toughest matchup in the last four weeks.
The Colts had the 15th-best performance this week against the Jets. I know you're gonna say, "Well a lot of that was in garbage time," but garbage time still counts in fantasy. If they go up big against Jacksonville, there will still be garbage time, and it will be against Trevor Lawrence, not Josh Johnson. The truth, as I've said many times, is that the Colts are not a fantasy-friendly defense. They don't get sacks because they put next to no pressure on the quarterback. If they're not getting multiple turnovers or scoring touchdowns, they rarely finish with a strong point total. Now, it might happen against a Jaguars offense that is actually worse than the Jets and gives up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so the Colts remain playable, but I can't put them higher than this over better defenses or teams in equally strong matchups
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
The Vikings had another top-10 performance despite facing the Ravens without Danielle Hunter and Harrison Smith. They may have lost the game, but they notched three sacks and two turnovers in the process, which gave them enough fantasy value for a solid effort. On the season, the Vikings are 3rd in pressure rate, tied for 2nd in sacks, and 2nd in QB hurry rate, which gives them value despite middle of the pack turnover rate and percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score. The expectation is Harrison Smith will be activated off the COVID-IR before Sunday's game against a Chargers offense that seems to have hit a wall recently. However, the Chargers still give up the 23rd-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, so it's a below-average matchup, which is what makes Minnesota playable but just outside the top-10.
It's been nine weeks now, so I think we need to reconcile with the fact that this is not the same Chiefs offense we've come to know. Defenses are playing Cover-2 looks that keep the safeties back and force the Chiefs to dink and dunk underneath, which they seem incapable of doing. They also rank 15th in sacks allowed and dead last in the NFL in turnover rate, which is why they've allowed the 10th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. Perhaps I should even have the Raiders higher since they've been a solid defensive unit all year, ranking 3rd in yards allowed per play and 5th in pressure rate.
The Titans' defense, much like the Patriots, has really stepped it up of late, finishing as a top-10 defense in back-to-back weeks. They're now 13th in turnover rate, 9th in pressure rate, and tied for 6th in sacks, which has helped propel them despite ranking 20th in yards allowed per play and 20th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. Considering how boring the Saints have been this year, you'd think the Titans would rank higher, but the truth is that boring offenses don't give opposing defenses many chances to get fantasy points. The Saints are actually one of the worst matchups in the NFL for fantasy defenses, giving up the 6th-fewest points. They're 4th in the NFL in sacks allowed and 5th in the NFL in turnover rate, and that was with Jameis Winston at quarterback. They block well and take care of the ball, which means that even if this is a low-scoring game, the Titans won't have as many chances as we'd like to make big plays on defense.
The Panthers may have lost last week, but it certainly wasn't the defense's fault. The Patriots only gained 273 yards of total offense and turned the ball over twice, but the Panthers' offense continuously put the defense in bad spots. On the year, the Panthers are still 4th in the NFL in the percentage of drives that end in an offensive turnover, tied for 6th in sacks, and 6th in pressure rate. They remain a strong fantasy defense and have a pretty good schedule ahead; it's just hard to play them this week against a Cardinals team that should be getting Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins, and A.J. Green back for the matchup.
The Saints are an enigma. They can put up a big defensive point total against a top-flight offense and then put up a dud against the Falcons. They're 10th in turnover rate, which we love to see, and are 6th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, but are 21st in sacks and 22nd in pressure rate, which means that they're not giving you much in that department. If they face an offense that isn't going to take chances and potentially force bad throws, it limits the Saints' upside. As we saw last night against the Rams, the Titans without Derrick Henry are a more conservative offense. I don't expect many chances for the Saints to flex their turnover muscle, so unless the Saints can take advantage of a poor Titans offensive line, the ceiling on this performance will be capped a bit.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
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