RADIO
Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Week 9 brought its own brand of weirdness, supplying high-caliber duds in lieu of the usual injury twists and turns. The Jags beating Buffalo makes last week's Jets win look like a casual walk in the park. We navigate all sorts of chaos en route to fantasy championships!
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Monitor the injury reports and always err on the side of high-ceiling stashes for the end of your bench if bye weeks allow it. Whatever your needs, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 10.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
20% rostered
I know, 2021 Roethlisberger doesn’t generate a ton of passing volume but bye week crunches are real and Big Ben faces a horrid Detroit defense. The Lions defense salvaged some pass metrics by strategically letting Philadelphia’s RBs crush them instead but Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow each notched three TDs against them recently, Najee Harris will put up elite stats but ol’ Roethlisberger will find himself there for many scoring opportunities.
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
9% rostered
Heinicke has cooled off lately, but Tampa Bay presents a golden fantasy opportunity to get back on track. You know their offense will put up points and that run defense is a brick wall, leaving Heinicke no choice but to attack through the air. Washington may get Logan Thomas back and help Heinicke get back to the player who passed for 290 yards and three TDs in Week 4 against Atlanta. Fire up Heinicke fresh off of a bye week in deep leagues.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Devonta Freeman (RB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 25-35%
Le’Veon Bell (RB, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 10-20%
20% & 5% rostered
With Latavius Murray out again, Freeman and Bell combined for 131 total yards with each scoring a touchdown. Freeman looked better than Bell, but Baltimore’s run-heavy approach leaves room for two RBs to be viable options next to Lamar Jackson. Murray had been doubtful entering the weekend and may play come Week 10, but Freeman has momentum and could be the 1A even if Murray returns.
With Latavius OUT again, Devonta Freeman lead the way in the BAL backfield.
Freeman 58% snaps
Lev Bell 23%
Ty’Son 18%TySon recorded no touches, and will go back to being a healthy scratch when Lat returns.
— Davis Mattek (davismattek.eth) (@DavisMattek) November 8, 2021
Jordan Howard (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%
13% rostered
Howard had another strong game, racking up 71 yards and a score on 17 carries. He now has 128 yards and three touchdowns in two games off of the practice squad, outplaying Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell in relief of Miles Sanders. You may hate it, but Howard has likely played his way into a permanent role for Philadelphia even when Sanders returns. He’ll have another good chance at finding paydirt in Week 10 at Denver as the clear go-to man for short-yardage situations.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Brandon Bolden (RB, NE) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
6% & 10% rostered
Damien Harris exited Sunday’s game early with a head injury (a concussion hasn’t been confirmed), which opened the door for Rhamondre Stevenson to log 106 total yards before getting kicked in the head and exiting himself. If Harris is out then Stevenson has a strong outlook for Week 10, but both being out or limited means Bolden could step up after he himself secured 81 yards on 10 touches versus Carolina. Both Stevenson and Bolden have receiving chops and are versatile targets if the opportunity arises.
Eno Benjamin (RB, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
0% rostered
Week 9 was the James Conner show as Chase Edmonds suffered a high-ankle sprain, but Arizona won’t put everything on Conner’s shoulders. Benjamin stepped into Edmonds’ shoes as a complementary role to Conner, rushing the ball nine times for 39 yards and a touchdown of his own. It’s small potatoes compared to Conner’s hat trick, but games against Carolina and Seattle defenses ahead of the Week 12 bye may produce flex-worthy performances.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
27% rostered
Moore stepped up with 84 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches as the Jets lost to Indy on Thursday night, giving him three straight games with six or more targets. The rookie benefitted from Corey Davis being out but his momentum will keep him on the field with Davis and Jamison Crowder moving forward. The Jets don’t have a threat at TE and will face many negative gamescripts, making Moore a premium add in all PPR formats even when Zach Wilson returns.
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
36% rostered
Bateman caught five of his eight targets for 52 yards on Sunday, with two of those three missed looks representing high-leverage deep shots. I realize Sammy Watkins’ eventual return from a hamstring injury will lower Bateman’s floor, but he’s hit the ground running and pairs well with Marquise Brown while Mark Andrews works the middle. His spot on this potent offense deserves a roster spot in 12-team formats.
Rashod Bateman coming off the bye week:
* season-high 66% snaps
* season-high 82% routes
* season-high 8 targets— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 8, 2021
Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
13% rostered
DPJ made his two Week 9 catches count, as he brought in a 26-yard sideline reception and an easy 60-yard score that highlighted his agility. There’s a hint of Marquez Valdes-Scantling to his profile, as 314 yards and three scores on only 15 catches screams boom-or-bust. His role should expand as the starter in place of Odell Beckham Jr., but Cleveland will feature their ground game first. Still, his ceiling is Week 6’s 101- yard, two-score game and that demands a roster spot in most 12-teamers.
Deonte Harris (WR, NO) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
16% rostered
Harris led all Saints wide receivers with seven targets, but his 18 routes run were less than half of Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway’s 38 and his 23 snaps further trailed Kenny Stills’ 25. He’s a burner with better hands than most assume out of returners, but that sort of volume is a monitor situation given the lower ceiling that a Trevor Siemian-led offense yields.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
16% rostered
The target pendulum swung back in Gage’s favor with a 7-64-0 line in Week 9 after last week’s goose egg. Gage and Tajae Sharpe were the clear starters, which is valuable given Atlanta’s propensity to deploy two-TE and two-RB sets. Olamide Zaccheaus had a splash game but doesn’t play often enough to be a weekly option. Gage’s own floor can be low thanks to being a Falcon WR, but Kyle Pitts typically draws alpha coverage and defenses are always tracking Cordarrelle Patterson more than Gage. He should avoid Trevon Diggs in Dallas’ scheme with another chance at a strong Week 10.
Van Jefferson (WR, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
12% rostered
Jefferson had a frustrating Week 9, as did most of the Rams, with some critical missed connections that left him with three catches for 41 yards despite seven targets. We are educated and can look beyond the results! Jefferson’s workload was right there with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, with the Rams holding to three-wide personnel throughout the game. That trio, Tyler Higbee, and then either Darrell Henderson or Sony Michel is out there on nearly 100% of LAR plays. That seems to mean Jefferson’s reasonable weekly expectation is 6-8 targets from Matthew Stafford, which yields top-50 ranks in most weeks.
The Rams offense featured 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on all 74 offensive plays tonight, the fifth time a Sean McVay-led offense used only one unique offensive grouping in a game.
Since 2016, only one other team has used only one grouping — the 2019 Patriots (Week 9 at BAL)
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 8, 2021
DeSean Jackson (WR, LV) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
4% rostered
Jackson was granted his release from the Rams and the speedster is now a Raider, with a chance to work as a starter for Vegas. We’ll have to give him time to absorb the playbook, but it won’t take long for them to simply get him to go long. With Bryan Edwards unable to break out, D-Jax could become the No. 3 next to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Dan Arnold (TE, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
27% rostered
If you need a longer track record of that 7-8 target range then here’s Arnold, who hit double-digits in PPR in three of four games since the Jacksonville trade. We don't need it to be pretty, as Logan Thomas popped last season in a similar fashion. We can't reliably predict much beyond volume, and Arnold is also split out often enough to bump up the models moving forward.
Dan Arnold played another 18 snaps at WR, led the team in targets, and also had an end zone target that he unfortunately couldn't convert. Only blocked on one pass play.
Assuming Trevor Lawrence is alright, you should be feeling pretty good about Arnold moving forward. https://t.co/IxMkQ4HRJZ
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) November 8, 2021
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 4-6%
38% rostered
Conklin has seen seven targets in back-to-back games now, giving him an inkling of mid-range consistency that is rare at TE beyond the big dogs. He’s had five catches in each of those two games, but yardage marks of 57 and 45 without TDs have tempered attention. TE is a dart throw outside of the top-five without PPR considerations but someone like Conklin has a slightly higher range of outcomes.
Adam Trautman (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
5% rostered
Trautman is another TE who hit the seven-target mark in Week 9, but it came with a marked change thanks to Juwan Johnson being inactive. Trautman only caught four balls for 47 yards, which doesn’t sound like much, but those are season-high marks. The Saints will continue to establish their offense with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill, and no Michael Thomas return means there isn't a clear alpha to dominate targets.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee Titans Defense (vs. NO) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
10% rostered
The Titans grabbed headlines on Sunday night by stymieing Matthew Stafford and the Rams with upfront pressure and a pair of interceptions. The five sacks were a season-high and while the defense’s fantasy output leans heavily on three TDs in their last five games, the 15 sacks in that span highlight the mistake opportunities generated. They’ll face a conservative New Orleans team still establishing itself sans Jameis Winston, then Houston and New England before a Week 13 bye and a Week 14 date with Jacksonville.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense (at DEN) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
7% rostered
The Eagles did nothing against the Chargers in Week 9, recording zero sacks or turnovers after a six-sack beatdown of Detroit in Week 8. Philly has logged three or more sacks in four games, but a combined one sack in their other five. It’s feast or famine but the Eagles face a Denver team that has given up multiple sacks in all nine games of 2021 thus far, including four in each of their last two. There aren’t many low-rostered streams to pick from and that recipe is good enough to be above-average here.
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