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When you have a slate with only three games, you can be sure that the following night is going to be filled to the brim. So with the 13 contests we have tonight, have fun, don't look back, and keep those NBA updates handy. Bets and wagers change throughout the day depending on activity and availability, for example, Bobby Portis' return to the rotation has led to some fairly tasteful bets.
When players return from injury, or in some recent cases, suspension, their value and projected tends to be slightly skewed. Tonight, and as of right now, there isn't much action specifically regarding players returning from injury, but it's only 9AM and although not many, few announcements have already come down the pipe.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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BKN @ ORL
James Harden (BKN) MORE 20.5 Points - Mo Bamba (ORL) LESS 8.5 Rebounds
James Harden has a healthy history playing the Magic, but this season hasn't gone exactly to plan. Neither of these facts correlate, but when you make a decision on a 50/50 bet, you have to assume both sides are probable and ignoring one side because of "research" seems like some inefficient, slightly biased research. There are games where James Harden's toughest competition is a second or third-year guard and he should be posting big games, but that's not the case, and truthfully this season, Harden is looking at more instances being on Shaqtin-A-Fool than he is being on a highlight reel. That all being said, the Nets still need his production and since he scored 16 points in the 4th quarter against the Raptors, that knack for scoring is still in there somewhere.
For Mo Bamba, his collective effort with Wendell Carter Jr. has been great for their development, but other-worldly annoying for fantasy owners and bettors that need them to be double-double-ing every night. When you have the chance to bet on rebounds, don't. There is not a stat more reliant on chance and random-ness, and there are times where it's tough to assume whether a rebounder will attack the boards or box out for teammates to get rebounds. Specifically, Mo Bamba hasn't really made it clear whether he is a rebounder or just 7'0. Until he proves he is the better rebounder between his frontcourt counterpart, there's no reason to just assume he is good for 10, or in this case, nine rebounds.
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DET @ HOU
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 20.5 Points - Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 19.5 Points
This game might not generate a ton of viewer traffic, but looking at both teams most consistent offensive weapons, there doesn't seem that there will be much resistance on the opposing end. The Pistons frontcourt is horrendous defensively, but that isn't saying Isaiah Stewart, Kelly Olynyk and Jerami Grant can't put up points. It's just their interior defense needs more physicality and arguably a new anchor. Christian Wood has needed a matchup like this to open up his shot and he won't get this opportunity again anytime soon. He should have no problem stretching the floor, which is a similar case for Jerami Grant against Houston's frontcourt.
Houston rolls out Christian Wood, Ja'Sean Tate, and Daniel Theis nightly to roam the paint, and despite the Rockets record, those three do as much as they can with the resources they have. It's an honorable effort, but when they run into skilled players, or in this case, someone like Jerami Grant, who has incredible length and is constantly playing downhill, it can be a real thorn in the side of a young defense.
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MIL @ NYK
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) LESS 28.5 Points - Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 22.5 Points
Last night Giannis Antetokounmpo had the luxury of playing the 76ers abysmal frontcourt rotation. He surpassed his projected on a game-sealing alley-oop right over George Niang's head in the waning seconds, and it could not of looked any easier for him. However, only scoring 31 points says a lot about what is to come against the Knicks' much more impressive defense. With New York's breakdown of their frontcourt, points won't come nearly as easy and Antetokounmpo will have to hit his shot. On the second night of a back-to-back, even if he isn't fatigued, 29 points seems like a stretch.
For Julius Randle, the only worry is that the rest of the Knicks offense might steal production. Randle will most likely draw Bobby Portis' attention, so it's already looking like he is going to be passing out of a lot of post-up situations. Portis won't shut down everyone, but his defense is relentless and he doesn't play "soft" by any means. The points in the paint will be limited on both sides, but the Bucks frontcourt is much more prone to letting up points due to a simple lack of availability.
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IND @ DEN
Domantas Sabonis (IND) MORE 18.5 Points - JaMychal Green (DEN) MORE 6.5 Rebounds
With the Nuggets missing their best player, it's going to be interesting to watch how this offense conducts itself. Will Barton is going to be the center of attention and you have to like his 17.5 point projected right now. That is likely to increase drastically as the day goes on, but the category to attack is where all the rebounds Jokic was likely to grab are going to go. JaMychal Green might not be first in line for minutes, but the Nuggets know how useful someone like him can be in the starting lineup, and when given a full workload, Green puts up stats and gets rebounds.
Since the Pacers will actually have a chance this game, Domantas Sabonis has to do more. He needs to be scoring at least 20 points a night, and with no Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana will lose the games he doesn't do that. Caris LeVert and T.J. McConnell can't carry this offense nightly if Myles Turner and Sabonis are both unable to create for themselves. The Nuggets have no choice but to play a few younger players tonight, but if Denver doesn't specifically start JaMychal Green to limit Sabonis, he's going to have a huge game.
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