RADIO
This is possibly one of the most fun weeks of the football season. We have the Thanksgiving Day slate where we get to watch three games, and of course obsess over our fantasy football lineups.
In the early Thanksgiving game, we will get to observe Andy Dalton and the Chicago Bears take on the Detroit Lions led by Jared Goff. After we have awakened from our Thanksgiving nap, we will get to see a potential shootout between the Dallas Cowboys and the Las Vegas Raiders. Then before we do our Black Friday shopping, we get to watch the Bills and Saints battle it out in the nightcap game.
Before we jump into Week 12, we have to look at the warning signals to see which players are on the verge of busting in our fantasy lineups. These are players we will need to monitor to see if they are getting ready to trend downward. Some of these players might need to sit on our bench for a few weeks until we figure out their situation.
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Quarterback Concerns - Sit 'Em For Week 12?
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson has not looked good in his last two starts after coming back from an injury. He has scored just 17.9 fantasy points combined in Weeks 10 and 11, and during this time, he has completed just 51.5 percent of his passes while posting a 55.6 passer rating.
Part of his poor play can be contributed to him coming back from an injury, and we can also consider the offense completely broken. The Seahawks couldn’t get a win over the Arizona Cardinals who were missing both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. This could be a busted season for Wilson.
What to do
The Seahawks will be traveling to Washington to play the Football Team on Monday Night. The Football Team ranks 28th in the league against the pass, so on paper, this looks like a favorable matchup for Wilson. Unfortunately, he also played in favorable matchups in his last two games and didn’t deliver, so it might be best to try another quarterback in your fantasy lineup for this week.
Running Back Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 12?
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
For the most part, Harris has served some utility in fantasy. He has two RB1 performances on the season to go along with three RB2 games. Per PFF, he has been rock solid running the ball by averaging 2.97 yards after contact per attempt with 30 missed tackles forced. Overall, Harris has been very efficient by averaging 4.2 yards per attempt.
On the flip side, Rhamondre Stevenson has been receiving a larger share of the workload lately, and has seen a 10 percent opportunity share or greater in his last four games. The rookie running back is averaging 4.5 yards per carry while also averaging 3.03 yards after contact per attempt. As long as he continues to play well, the Patriots will continue to give him touches.
The fact that Stevenson now has a bigger role in the offense impacts Harris’ ability to churn out consistent production -- fewer touches always mean fewer opportunities for fantasy points. Before Stevenson’s emergence in the offense, Harris was seeing a larger opportunity share by owning a 16.25 percent share of the touches and targets during his first eight contests of the season. But in Week 11, against the Atlanta Falcons, Stevenson led all Patriots running backs with 13 touches, which was two more than Harris.
Fantasy football managers will need to monitor this situation going forward. In Week 12, the Patriots will be hosting the Tennessee Titans who are allowing just 97.18 rushing yards per game. Vegas has a 44 over/under for this contest, which means we shouldn’t expect either team to blow up the box score.
What To Do
Depending on what you have available at the running back position, it might be best to sit Harris this week until we get a better feel of the team's touch distribution for these running backs. I’m expecting the Patriots to continue to split the work, making it hard for fantasy gamers to predict which running back to insert into their lineups.
Wide Receiver Concerns - Start 'Em for Week 12?
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
In his last 26 games, Moore has provided just seven WR1 performances and five WR2 games while playing in 14 games where he was a WR3 or worse. His volatile fantasy production is tied to the volatile quarterback play that he has endured over the last season and a half.
Now Cam Newton is back under center for the Panthers, and it’s a great storyline to watch on Sundays. However, this could impact Moore’s ability to hit his ceiling in fantasy. In his first full game back with the Panthers, Newton delivered a team-high eight targets to Christian McCaffrey, who saw a 29.63 percent target share of Carolina’s passing offense. He also targeted Robby Anderson six times in this game. Moore was still productive in the game, scoring 16.0 PPR fantasy points while seeing a 25.92 percent target share.
Many fantasy managers may start to fear that Newton might spread the ball around a little too much, making it harder for Moore to hit his ceiling. This is within the realm of possibilities considering there will be games where the Panthers won’t need to rely on the pass much.
What to do
Even though he hasn’t been consistently hitting his upside, Moore is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. More than likely, fantasy managers will be hard-pressed to find a better wide receiver on their roster. The Panthers will be on the road this week to play the Miami Dolphins. We are expecting this to be a lower-scoring matchup due to Vegas having a 42 over/under for the game. With that being said, if you want to gamble on another wide receiver on your roster, or possibly try a receiver off the waiver wire, this week might be the time to do so.
Tight End Concerns - Sit 'Em for Week 12?
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Gesicki’s fantasy production has been very volatile this season, although he has delivered five TE1 weeks this year. There are very few tight ends that consistently see a large volume of targets. When it comes to projecting output, analyzing the tight end's matchup might be the best way to decide whether or not to put them into your lineup.
The Dolphins will be playing against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and their defense is very stingy against the pass as they are allowing just 174.18 yards per game through the air. This should also be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week, which will limit the opportunities for everyone involved in the Dolphins’ offense.
What To Do
Tight ends are normally gambles for fantasy football. The fact Gesicki has a less than desirable matchup this week might be enough for many fantasy managers to leave him on the bench and try their luck with another tight end off the waiver wire, if another viable option is available.
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