RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. Because of Thanksgiving, this main Sunday slate is smaller than usual with just 10 games. We have Colts vs. Buccaneers having a point total of 52-53 points (depending on where you look) while the rest of the slate is games in the 40s.
(1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is not my favorite stack for a large field GPP but one has to list them as No. 1 this week. Tampa Bay is No. 2 in pass play percentage (67.02%), they are facing the No. 18 pass defense in Indianapolis, and we have a point total in the 50s. Brady-Godwin-Fournette is probably the way I would go here. Mike Evans has not been practicing this week, Godwin has. Fournette is averaging 5.4 targets per game out of the running back position. Brady-Gronkowski-Fournette is another direction. I would look at the projected roster percentages of Godwin and Gronkowski and probably take whichever is going to be less popular and use that as a stack.
(2) Atlanta Falcons
This is a tough one to type out since Matt Ryan has not looked good at times this year. That said, this game has a 46 point total, Jacksonville has the No. 19 passing defense, and Atlanta passes the ball 62.48% of the time. Cordarrelle Patterson might be back this week (check injury updates). Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Kyle Pitts would be stack options I would consider this week with Patterson if he plays. I would not stack Gage and Zaccheaus in the same lineup; so far this season when one of them gets a large number of targets the other one does not. My top stack would likely be Ryan-Gage-Patterson (if healthy) or Ryan-Gage-Pitts, or those two combinations but with Zaccheaus instead of Gage.
(3) San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco does not pass the ball often (just 52.45% of the time) but when they do, the targets seem to be consolidated around Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Because they do not pass often, it is usual that one of these three gets the majority of the targets and the rest take a backseat. There are exceptions such as Week 9 vs. Arizona where Samuel had 9, Aiyuk - 8, and Kittle -8. This Minnesota pass defense is terrible, they made Cooper Rush look like a future hall of fame. I would pick one of those three targets (likely Deebo Samuel for me) and pair one of them with Jimmy Garoppolo as what I would call a sneaky stack.
Final Thoughts
The three games on Thursday combined with Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football thins out this slate. There are not a lot of high-scoring games on tap and there are a number of good pass defenses going against good passing offenses that make me want to avoid them outright. Tampa Bay I would imagine will be the most popular stack of the day but they also grade the highest. Your choice this week will be to decide whether to roster a good passing offense against a good pass defense (L.A. Rams or L.A. Chargers for example) or to target bad passing defenses.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 12 DFS Stacks!
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