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Week 12 is officially in the books. This week, the Cardinals and Chiefs are back in action, with the Titans, Packers, Browns, and Panthers all on Bye.
In this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 13 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 13
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk has turned a corner of late, leading 49ers receivers in targets the last five games (32). Deebo Samuel has 29 targets in those five games but has also been converted into a hybrid running back as well, logging 19 carries in his last three games. But with Samuel now expected to miss 1-2 weeks of action with a groin strain, Aiyuk could be in for an even larger share of the targets. Last season, when Samuel was out, Aiyuk had double-digit targets in four different games (10, 14, 16, and 13). The 49ers have two favorable matchups the next two weeks at Seattle and at Cincinnati. It wouldn't be surprising to see Aiyuk eclipse 100 receiving yards for the first time this season in at least one of these two games.
Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams
After playing on just 27% of the snaps in his first game with the Rams, Beckham was fired up as a full-time receiver in Week 12. He played 98% of the snaps and ran 41 routes on 42 Matthew Stafford dropbacks. He finished the game with a line of 5-81-1 on a season-high 10 targets. Van Jefferson also ran 42 routes and saw nine targets in this game, so it looks like the Rams will go heavy on 3WR sets moving forward, especially if they're playing from behind. Either way, it looks like Beckham now has new life in Los Angeles and can be fired up as a solid WR3 moving forward.
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Mitchell returned to the lineup after a week off recovering from finger surgery and handled a season-high 32 touches on a season-high 70% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson Jr. only played on 14% of the snaps after playing on 58% of the snaps the previous week with Mitchell out. It's clear the team wants to lean on the rookie running back in the run game, but he's also been more active recently in the passing attack as well. He's now seen 5+ targets in two of his last three games and is averaging 39 receiving yards per game in those two games.
The 49ers have one of the most favorable rest of season schedules as well, which bodes really well for Mitchell down the stretch (@ SEA, @ CIN, vs. ATL, @ TEN, vs. HOU). And now Deebo Samuel is out 1-2 weeks as well, and he's averaged a sizeable 6.3 carries the last three games. Mitchell is going to be a bell cow the next couple of weeks and possibly beyond.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Gibson handled a career-high 36 touches in Week 12 vs. the Seahawks. His previous career-high was 26 touches, which came just two weeks ago in Week 10. Since the Washington Football Team's Bye in Week 9, Gibson is averaging 27 touches and 106 total yards per game. J.D. McKissic also suffered what appeared to be a neck injury late in the game vs. Seattle, so it's possible Gibson is asked to handle this large of a workload moving forward as Washington looks to sneak into the playoffs. Just like Elijah Mitchell, Gibson and the Football Team have a favorable rest of season schedule for running backs. He's a sure-fire RB1 the remainder of the way after a disappointing and injury-riddled first half of the season.
DeeJay Dallas, Seattle Seahawks
Dallas out-snapped Alex Collins in Week 12, partly due to a negative game script, but also as a result of a Collins fumble late in the second quarter. With both Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer out of the lineup, Dallas has seen an uptick in usage the last two games. He got six opportunities on 37% of the snaps in Week 11. In Week 12, his snap share spiked up to 60% and he got eight opportunities (five targets) on a season-high 60% of the snaps. Meanwhile, Collins only played on 40% of the snaps in Week 12 vs. the Washington Football Team. What's more, after playing on just 27.8% of the snaps in the first half, Dallas played on 79.3% of the snaps in the second half, while Collins played on just 20.7% of the snaps in the second half after his fumble and when the Seahawks were in catch-up mode.
With Collins being an upcoming free agent, it makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks to see what they've got in second-year back DeeJay Dallas.
Other Risers: Kendrick Bourne, Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, Foster Moreau (if Darren Waller out), Alexander Mattison, Javonte Williams
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 13
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Oh, how quickly the tides turn. Just last week, I had Sanders listed as a top riser heading into Week 12. A week later, he's one of the guys I most want to highlight as a faller. What's worse, the Eagles have a juicy matchup on tap against the New York Jets who allow the 6th-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (128.7 yards).
Jordan Howard appears to be trending in the right direction to play in Week 13, and Boston Scott looked like the preferred option most of the time in Week 12, handling 56.3% of the total RB opportunities. Meanwhile, Sanders handled just 31.3% of the RB opportunities and played on just 33% of the snaps. Head coach Nick Sirianni mentioned an ankle/foot injury that bothered him throughout the game, but it's also possible the Eagles just felt more comfortable with Scott as the game unfolded. Between Howard's potential return and with the way Scott has been playing of late, it's all of a sudden going to be hard to trust Sanders even with a fantastic matchup in Week 13.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara hasn't played in three weeks, so why is he considered a faller heading into Week 13? Exactly! He hasn't played in three weeks due to a knee injury and now he's coming back to a unique situation. Not only will Mark Ingram likely suit up after missing a game, but Taysom Hill will be taking over as the starting quarterback. Kamara averaged 24.5 opportunities per game prior to Ingram's arrival. In two games played with Ingram, those opportunities have decreased to 21.5 per game. His snap percentage has also decreased to around 68% with Ingram from 85% in his first six games with the backfield all to himself.
Now add Hill as the starting quarterback to the equation. Last season, Kamara averaged just 16.5 opportunities per game with Hill as the starter compared to 20.7 with Drew Brees. He also averaged just four targets per game in those four games as opposed to 8.3 targets per game in the other 11 games. You're most likely still starting him if he plays, but don't be surprised if he doesn't put up video game-type numbers with Ingram back and Hill under center.
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
Gordon continues to get his touches, racking up another 18 in Week 12. But his share of the running back pie is lessening each and every week. Rookie Javonte Williams played more snaps than Gordon for a second consecutive week and had just one fewer touch (17) in Week 12 against the Chargers. As long as Gordon is healthy, he'll continue getting touches, but it's clear Williams has the upper-hand heading into Week 13 and beyond.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
I'll probably eat my words when Metcalf goes off in Week 13, but he's been a shell of himself the last three weeks since the Seahawks' Bye. He's averaging just 2.7 receptions for 23.3 yards on 6.7 targets per game. There are a couple of reasons why Metcalf isn't producing as he did earlier in the season. For one, Russell Wilson doesn't look right coming off finger surgery. Second, teams can now lock in on Metcalf since the Seahawks essentially have no semblance of a rushing attack. Lastly, Seattle is averaging just 49 plays per game in their last three games. No other team is averaging fewer than 61 plays per game over that same stretch. There are just simply not enough opportunities to get a guy like Metcalf the football. It won't get any easier in Week 13 against a 49ers team that ranks top-10 in time of possession.
Other Fallers: Kenyan Drake, Ty Johnson, Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd, Kenny Golladay, Kyle Pitts
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