RADIO
Week 12 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. First, we saw a wild Thanksgiving day of action, mainly the Raiders beating the Cowboys in overtime. Then we head to Sunday, where the Bengals went to town on the Steelers, beating them 41-10. Next, the Bucs and Colts were a barn burner that the Bucs won in the end. Next, the Patriots dominated and took apart the depleted Titans team. Finally, the Packers and Rams and the Vikings and Niners put on some entertaining NFC Playoff type games where the Packers and Niners came out victoriously. It was an all-around solid weekend, and we should be in line for another crazy one this week.
For Week 13, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up for an elite quarterback like Lamar Jackson or grabbing one of the top running backs like Jonathan Taylor or Joe Mixon. Overall the value is very spread out at all positions so that cash builds will be pretty interesting, and roster projections will be interesting to help with builds as the week goes on.
This article will look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 13 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays - Week 13 Cash Games
Derek Carr, LV vs. WFT | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,500
Carr is coming off a monstrous Thanksgiving Day game down in the Big D and will look to stay hot at home versus the Football Team. Carr is coming off a 20+ fantasy point week, and it is the fourth time in the last six games that Carr has scored 19 or more fantasy points. He gets a great matchup on Sunday versus WFT, who will be coming off a short week after a Monday night battle with Seattle.
He takes on a WFT defense that ranks dead last this season versus opposing quarterbacks. They allow an average of 277 passing yards, over two touchdowns, and 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Over the last nine games, WFT has been allowing nearly three passing touchdowns per game. Carr and the Raiders are 2.5 point favorites this weekend with an implied team total of 26. Carr should have his way with this WFT secondary, making for a solid cash game value at QB this weekend.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. BAL | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500
There is no hiding the fact that Big Ben has looked old and broken this season, but these cheap price tags are just too much. Sure, it may not be the most comfortable cash game play, but when looking for extreme value, then Ben checks the box. Ben has scored ten or more fantasy points in every game this season and 14 or more points in six of ten games. This weekend, he will take on the division rival Ravens, which is not always easy. On the flip side, the Steelers could be trying to keep up with Lamar and company as the Steelers defense is going to be missing some significant pieces and should get torched.
Ben takes on a Ravens defense that ranks 22 on the season versus opposing quarterbacks. They allow an average of 292 passing yards and 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Ben is averaging 251 passing yards and 16 fantasy points over his last four games, which will play just fine against this Ravens defense. This dicey play may be better saved for tournament lineups, but the price can't be ignored when looking for value.
Running Back DFS Value Plays - Week 13 Cash Games
Elijah Mitchell, SF at SEA | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600
Mitchell went off last week. He has seen 27 carries in each of his previous two games, not to mention five receptions last week. When healthy, and he currently is, Mitchell will get the ball early and often in the Niners' offense. If he also gets utilized in the passing game, his value goes through the roof. Of course, it does not hurt that he will face a Seattle defense that is getting torched in the run game.
On the season, the Seahawks rank 31st versus running backs, and over the last four games, they rank 30th. Over the previous four games, they are allowing an average of 160 total yards (rushing and receiving) with a touchdown and over 30 fantasy points per game. Mitchell saw 70% of the running back snaps and carries last week while splitting the red zone carries with Deebo Samuel. With Deebo out this week and this bad Seahawks defense, expect Mithcell to feast.
The Niners are three-point favorites with a 24.5 point implied team total. They should be running early and often. With Mitchell's recent workload, he brings an outstanding floor to the table with a large amount of upside. Look for Mitchell to be a phenomenal cash game play this week at a horrible price point.
Jamaal Williams, DET vs. MIN | DK: $5,400 FD: $6,500
With DeAndre Swift going down with an injury last week, Williams took over and ran away with the Lions' running back role. He played on 63% of the snaps and saw 79% of the running back carries. Williams had 15 carries to go along with five receptions on his way to double-digit fantasy points. Williams should be in line for a similar if not even better workload this week versus the Vikings.
Williams will take on a Vikings defense that ranks 26th versus opposing running backs over four weeks. They allow nearly 100 rushing yards per game with five catches and almost 50 receiving yards per game. This week, the Lions are seven-point underdogs and will look for all Williams has to help keep the game close. They stay dedicated to the run each week and, at worse, will dump off plenty to the running backs. We loved Swift's role due to the passing game, and now it's Williams to run with. Another very cheap cash game running back option.
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. NYG | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400
This week is full of mid-priced or value running backs, and Gaskin is another one to add to the list. Gaskin has been one of the most consistent backs in football and gets little to no love. Gaskin has 18 or more touches in three of the last four weeks and puts up double-digit fantasy weeks in those three weeks. Gaskin also had at least one touchdown in each of those three games. This past week Gaskin was even used out of the Wild Cat, which adds to his floor/upside.
This week Gaskin takes on the Giants. A Giants team ranked 28th on the season and 28th over the last four weeks versus opposing running backs. Over the previous four weeks, the Giants are allowing an average of 100 rushing yards, over eight receptions, nearly a touchdown, as well as almost 30 fantasy points per game. The running game destroyed the Giants, and Gaskin should have his way again this week. It also helps the Dolphins be four-point favorites with a 22.5 point implied team total. Look for Gaskin to have another substantial workload that results in another quality fantasy week.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays - Week 13 Cash Games
Russell Gage, ATL vs. TB | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,900
As the Falcons fall behind weekly, the passing game gets leaned on more and more. Outside of Kyle Pitts, Gage has become the popular target from Matt Ryan. Over the last four weeks, Gage has led the Falcons' wide receivers with a 74% snap rate, 187 air yards, a nearly 22% target share, and 11 receptions. Gage has done most of that damage in three of those four games and has scored 9.9 or more fantasy points in those three games. The Falcons are 11 point underdogs and will often have to throw early to keep this game close. Outside of Cordarelle Patterson and maybe Pitts, Gage should be targeted often in this game and lead to some excellent cash game appeal.
Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX at LAR | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,400
Last week was supposed to be Shenault's coming-out week, and most were let down a bit. However, when we look under the hood, there should be a lot to be optimistic about. Shenault led the Jags with nine targets a 22% target share. He led the team with three red-zone targets, two end-zone targets, and five receptions.
This week Shenault and the Jags take on a Rams defense that ranks 28th versus opposing receivers over the past four weeks. They allow an average of one touchdown and over 35 fantasy points per game. The Jags are 13 point underdogs and will be throwing early and often, meaning Shenault should get his fair share of action this week. Shenault brings an excellent floor to the game while having a large ceiling.
DeAndre Carter, WFT at LV | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,400
Over the last four games, Carter has become a significant piece of the WFT passing game, and he should be just that again this week. Carter has five or more targets in three of the last four games while scoring three touchdowns over that stretch. In addition, he has scored nine or more fantasy points in each of the four games, which are very nice at his discounted price tag.
This week Carter heads to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders and a defense that ranks 23rd versus opposing wide receivers over the last four games. They allow an average of one touchdown and 35 fantasy points per game. Carter will look to use his 29% air yard, 16% target, and 14% red-zone shares over the past four weeks to once again lead to fantasy goodness. Do not sleep on Carter as a cash game value or tournament value this week.
Tight End DFS Value Plays - Week 13 Cash Games
Foster Moreau, LV vs. WFT | DK: $2,700, FD: $5,000
Moreau will be the chalk of the chalk this week, and in cash games, there is no problem with that. Darren Waller was injured in the Thanksgiving Day game versus the Cowboys and should be out this week. With Waller out, Moreau should feast once again, just had he did in Week 7 versus the Eagles. He caught all six of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown in that game. After Waller went down last week, Moreau saw five targets but only made one catch. This week, expect another heavy workload as the Raiders use Moreau in the "Waller Role" to some fantasy goodness.
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