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Welcome to the Week 13 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 13 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Carson Wentz, IND at HOU | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $23
Wentz saw a stellar fantasy effort go to waste in the Week 12 loss to the Buccaneers, as he passed for 306 yards and three touchdowns. It was the veteran's eighth multi-touchdown effort of the season over 12 games, and Sunday, he'll have a solid chance to follow up the strong numbers with another productive outing. Wentz threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns on only 20 attempts against Houston in the first meeting between the teams Week 6, and the Texans check in allowing 249.2 passing yards per home contest while also ranking in the bottom half of the league with 17 touchdown passes and a 9% explosive pass play rate allowed.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NYG | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $26
Tagovailoa has rather quietly put together a strong six-game stretch in which he's completed at least 80.0 percent of his passes in three different contests and has posted a 9:5 TD:INT during that span as well. The second-year signal-caller also has pair of rushing scores in that sample and draws another matchup that could help him continue his productive stretch in Week 13. The Giants have been a completely different defense when forced to travel, allowing a 68.2 percent completion rate and an NFC-high 287.8 passing yards per contest on the road. New York has also given up just under 5.0 yards per carry and two rushing TDs to quarterbacks, rounding out Tagovailoa's fantasy outlook nicely.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at SEA | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $23
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Elijah Mitchell, SF at SEA | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $27
Mitchell has been outstanding as long as he's been able to stay on the field, with the latest example a 133-yard effort versus the Vikings in Week 12 that he complemented with a 5-35 line through the air. The rookie has three other 100-yard efforts this season, and although he missed the first matchup against the Seahawks, he's back to full health for this rematch. Seattle has allowed 128.8 rushing yards per contest and nine rushing touchdowns to RBs. What's more, the 'Hawks have been the most generous team in the league to running backs through the air, yielding an 82-787-3 receiving line through 11 games.
Myles Gaskin, MIA vs. NYG | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $17
Gaskin has finally garnered legitimate lead-back volume over the last four games, averaging 18.3 rush attempts and 3.5 targets over that span. Gaskin has a solid 85 total touches over that span as well, and he should be in a game script that will allow him to continue that high workload in Week 13. Mike Glennon will start at quarterback for the Giants in place of Daniel Jones (neck), which could well lead to plenty of short drives, and eventually, a comfortable second-half lead for Miami that will allow Brian Flores to lean heavily on the ground attack. The G-Men come in allowing 131.8 rushing yards per road game as well, rank No. 21 in explosive rush play rate allowed (12%) and have given up a 70-571-2 line through the air to RBs as well.
ALSO CONSIDER: Javonte Williams, DEN vs. KC | DK: $5,500, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $21
YAHOO-ONLY SPECIAL: Alexander Mattison, MIN at DET | $18
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Hunter Renfrow, LVR vs. WAS | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $18
Renfrow saw a major boost in volume during the Week 12 Thanksgiving overtime win over the Cowboys, leading to a season-best 8-134 line on nine targets. The third-year wideout is already putting together a career year, and Sunday, what was already a reasonably favorable matchup on paper gets even better with the expected absence of Darren Waller (knee). The talented tight end's likely lack of availability will naturally lead to a significant vacuum in targets, one that Renfrow will be aptly capable of filling against a Washington defense that's allowed 251.4 passing yards per road game, along with an NFL-high 71.8 percent completion rate in that split.
Van Jefferson, LAR vs. JAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $14
Jefferson continues to see plenty of snaps, and Sunday, that could be truer than ever with Odell Beckham potentially set to miss his first contest as a member of the Rams due to a hip injury. Jefferson has logged 50 or more snaps in each of the last four games, and he's seen between six and nine targets in five straight contests. The extra attention from Matthew Stafford is encouraging considering Jefferson's game-breaking speed, and with a possible No. 2 role Sunday against a Jaguars defense that's allowed an elevated 11% explosive pass play rate and had trouble defending the deep ball, he makes for an intriguing value play for tournaments.
A.J. Green, ARI at CHI | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $16
Green continues to churn out consistent production irrespective of who's under center, and in Week 13, he could have Kyler Murray (ankle) throwing to him again after a multi-game absence. Green has four or five receptions in three of the past five games, and he's logged six or more targets in seven of his 10 games, and five in an eighth contest. Even if DeAndre Hopkins makes his return from a hamstring injury Sunday, Green could certainly benefit in the form of reduced attention against a Bears defense that's allowed a 67.0 percent completion rate overall, a 14.2 YPC figure to wideouts, and 13 touchdowns to receivers as well.
ALSO CONSIDER: Quez Watkins, PHI at NYJ | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $10
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Rob Gronkowski, TB at ATL | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $21
Gronkowski thrived in a favorable matchup against the Colts in Week 12, posting a 7-123 line on 10 targets. The scenario lines up nicely for him again in Week 13, as the Buccaneers will continue to be down a reliable No. 3 receiver and the Falcons have given up a 51-537-4 line to tight ends. Gronk has logged 17 targets overall in his first two games that he's played without Antonio Brown (ankle/suspension), and he's seen at least eight in four of the six games he's played this season. The fact Atlanta has given up the third-highest completion rate of any team on its home field (71.4 percent) certainly doesn't hurt Gronk's outlook at salaries that are still very modest for his upside.
Logan Thomas, WAS at LVR | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $19
Thomas made his return from injured reserve in Week 12 and posted a 3-30 line on six targets and a 77 percent snap share that should have helped him work off any rust from his layoff. He'll now head into one of the most favorable matchups in the league for tight ends in his second game back, as the Raiders have given up a 67-723-8 line to TEs, as well as an NFL-high 86.7 percent red-zone TD success rate at home. In turn, the 6-foot-6 Thomas can be a commanding red-zone presence when given the opportunity, as he demonstrated during his breakout 2020 season when, on 18 touches inside the 20, he posted a 42.9 percent TD conversion rate.
ALSO CONSIDER: C.J. Uzomah, CIN vs. LAC | DK: $3,200, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $16
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