Offensive Outliers From Week 14 - Coaching Matters

We now enter the 14th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 14, we saw stat lines such as the Jacksonville Jaguars running backs combining for six rushing yards, the New Orleans Saints wide receivers combining for 72 receiving yards, and the Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers combining for 246 receiving yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

 

The Cleveland Browns running back room combined for 23 carries, 86 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, six receptions, seven targets, 26 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday. After this game, this group has totaled 318 carries (24.46 per game), 1685 rushing yards (129.62 per game), 13 rushing touchdowns (one per game), 62 receptions (4.77 per game), 75 targets (5.77 per game), 534 receiving yards (41.08 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.15 per game). In terms of usage, the Browns' running backs are in the right ballpark as for what we'd typically expect from a Kevin Stefanski & Alex Van Pelt running back room. But in terms of efficiency, Sunday was a little disappointing for this group. In future weeks, expect similar usage, but better efficiency.

Fantasy players this impacts: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, D'Ernest Johnson, Demetric Felton

 

Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers

Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Falcons	16.5	24.69	216.5	1.31
Arthur Smith Prior (32 games)	11.06	16.41	162.19	1.13
Falcons WRs vs. Carolina Panthers	5	8	71	0

The Atlanta Falcons wide receivers combined for five receptions on eight targets for 71 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Falcons' wide receiver room has now totaled 124 receptions (9.54 per game) on 195 targets (15 per game) for 1275 receiving yards (98.07 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.54 per game). Even though Arthur Smith's offense heavily utilizes the running back and tight end positions, it is a little surprising to see how poor the Falcons' wide receiver room has been in many games this season. Going forward, expect this group to be a little better than how they performed this past Sunday, but it probably won't be enough to make any of the wide receivers fantasy relevant.

Fantasy players this impacts: Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus, Calvin Ridley, Tajae Sharpe, Christian Blake

 

New Orleans Saints Wide Receivers

Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael Jr.

The New Orleans Saints wide receiver room wasn't utilized much against the New York Jets as they combined for six receptions on eight targets for 72 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this showing, the New Orleans Saints wide receiver room has totaled 119 receptions (9.15 per game) on 220 targets (16.92 per game) for 1619 receiving yards (124.54 per game) and 15 receiving touchdowns (1.15 per game). Comparing this data to what we've seen from head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael historically, it appears that the Saints' wide receiver room is running on the lower end of what we'd expect. What this means is that there is some potential room for growth for this group, but it will ultimately come down to how well Taysom Hill can perform as a passer.

Fantasy players this impacts: Tre'Quan Smith, Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris, Marquez Callaway, and Kenny Stills

 

New York Giants Wide Receivers

Freddie Kitchens (with Jason Garrett Fired)

	WR Rec.	WR Tgts	WR Rec. Yds	WR Rec. TD
2020 Giants	11.06	17.5	132.88	0.56
Freddie Kitchens Prior (25 games)	11.6	19.92	169.8	0.88
Giants WRs vs. Los Angeles Chargers	6	17	55	0

This is the first appearance for a New York Giants position group since the team fired Jason Garrett and made Freddie Kitchens the new offensive playcaller. This past Sunday, with Kitchens calling the plays against the Los Angeles Chargers, the New York Giants wide receiver room combined for six receptions on 17 targets for 55 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the year, the Giants' wide receiver room has totaled 157 receptions (12.08 per game) on 264 targets (20.31 per game) for 1931 receiving yards (148.54 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.31 per game). It's hard to say how much stock we can put into utilizing Freddie Kitchens' previous wide receiver room numbers since he's utilizing Jason Garrett's playbook, but nonetheless, there should be better performances from this group than what we saw this past Sunday. The Giants' wide receivers are a decent buy-low right now and their numbers should pick up more once Daniel Jones returns to the lineup.

Fantasy players this impacts: Darius Slayton, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Collin Johnson, and John Ross

 

Jacksonville Jaguars Running Backs

Urban Meyer & Darrell Bevell

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Jaguars	17.56	77.5	0.44	5.56	7.06	36.81	0.25
Darrell Bevell Prior (223 games)	23.83	103.50	0.76	4.25	5.69	36.14	0.14
Jaguars RBs vs. Tennessee Titans	7	6	0	3	5	11	0

The Jacksonville Jaguars running back room struggled this past Sunday as they combined for seven carries, six rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, five targets, 11 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 220 carries (16.92 per game), 948 rushing yards (72.92 per game), eight rushing touchdowns (0.62 per game), 45 receptions (3.46 per game), 68 targets (5.23 per game), 311 receiving yards (23.92 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season. There's been a lot of talk about Urban Meyer's poor utilization of the team's running backs (mainly James Robinson) this season, but it's hard to get any worse than a seven carry for six rushing yards effort. There should be better performances than this past Sunday going forward, but as long as Urban Meyer is the head coach, it's hard to get excited about starting a Jaguars running back.

Fantasy players this impacts: James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, Dare Ogunbowale, and Travis Etienne

 

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's playcaller tendencies in the past.

 

Denver Broncos Running Backs

Pat Shurmur

	RB Carries	RB Rush Yds	RB Rush TD	RB Rec.	RB Tgts	RB Rec. Yds	RB Rec. TD
2020 Broncos	23.25	104.31	0.63	3.25	4.5	17	0.06
Pat Shurmur Prior (185 games)	23.11	97.01	0.65	4.88	6.65	36.70	0.10
Broncos RBs vs. Detroit Lions	39	184	3	1	2	10	1

The Denver Broncos running back room went off against the Detroit Lions this past week, combining for 39 carries, 184 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, one reception, two targets, 10 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. The Broncos' running back room has now totaled 321 carries (24.69 per game), 1501 rushing yards (115.46 per game), 10 rushing touchdowns (0.77 per game), 58 receptions (4.46 per game), 76 targets (5.85 per game), 467 receiving yards (35.92 per game), and five receiving touchdowns (0.38 per game) on the season. Comparing this data to what we've typically seen from offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's running back room, it appears that the 2021 Broncos running backs are running on the higher end of what we should expect. There may be a slight dip in usage and performance from this group over the last few weeks of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams, and Mike Boone

 

Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers

Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan

The Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver room had a great day against the San Francisco 49ers as they combined for 14 receptions on 20 targets for 246 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 182 receptions (14 per game) on 279 targets (21.46 per game) for 2577 receiving yards (198.23 per game) and 17 receiving touchdowns (1.31 per game). While Zac Taylor and Brian Callahan have been two of the better coaches for wide receivers over the course of their careers, the 2021 group is performing at the higher end of what we normally expect from them. There's a decent chance that the season averages dip a bit over the final few weeks of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Auden Tate

 

Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers

Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett

The Green Bay Packers wide receiver room combined for 19 receptions, 25 targets, 216 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football this past week. After this game, the Green Bay Packers wide receiver room has totaled 178 receptions (13.69 per game) on 274 targets (21.08 per game) for 2352 receiving yards (180.92 per game) and 18 receiving touchdowns (1.38 per game) on the season. Comparing these numbers to what we've typically seen from head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett's offenses, it appears this group is running at the higher end of what we should expect. Temper expectations for the Packers' wide receiver room going into next week's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

Fantasy players this impacts: Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, and Equanimeous St. Brown

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