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Welcome to the fantasy football playoffs! Congratulations to all of those that made it to the big dance!
In this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 15 of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 15
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
ARSB has arrived! The rookie now has 12 targets in back-to-back games and led all Lions receivers in routes run (37) in Week 14. St. Brown has played on an average of 90% of the snaps in his last four games. The Lions have two favorable matchups for wide receivers in Weeks 15 and 16 going up against the Cardinals and Falcons. Both of these games are also indoors, which never hurts when you get deep into the month of December. ARSB is square on the WR3 radar in PPR leagues in the first round of the playoffs and possibly beyond.
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
Emmanuel Sanders had to leave the Bills' Week 14 game against the Buccaneers early with a foot injury and he's not expected to play in Week 15. Because of that, Gabriel Davis finds himself as one of the biggest risers this week. With Sanders out for most of the game against the Bucs, Davis sported a season-high 83% snap share, catching 5-of-8 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. His previous season-high was just 52% back in Week 10. In that game vs. the Jets, Davis hauled in three catches for 105 yards. The Bills run a ton of 3WR sets, meaning Davis is in line for a full-time role in Week 15 against the Panthers. Now we just have to hope and pray Josh Allen, dealing with a mild case of turf toe, gets the start.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Kareem Hunt had to leave the Browns' Week 14 game early after suffering an ankle injury. Now it's looking very much like the Nick Chubb show in Week 15, with some D'Ernest Johnson sprinkled in here and there. Chubb had a 77.3% RB opportunity share after Hunt left the game vs. the Ravens. But what makes Chubb so intriguing now is the fact that he's running more routes out of the backfield than he ever has before. With Hunt out for most of the game, Chubb ran a season-high 19 routes and played a season-high 66% of the snaps. He caught a season-high three balls on four targets and he has now been targeted four times in consecutive games. The Browns get the Raiders in Week 15, who are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season (125.3). It's wheels up for Nick Chubb this week.
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
After missing Week 13 due to hip and shoulder injuries, Gordon came back to his 1A role in the Denver backfield in Week 14. He played on a higher snap percentage (50%) than rookie Javonte Williams (49%) and led the team in rush attempts with 24. Gordon finished the day with 111 rushing yards and two scores. As long as he's healthy, it looks like he's going to see the majority of the rush attempts. Williams should continue to run more routes, as he did last week (14 vs. eight), but Gordon should continue being the preferred option down in the red zone. In fact, he held a huge edge over Williams in red zone rush attempts with 10 in Week 14 to just two for the rookie.
Other Risers: Julio Jones, D'Onta Foreman, James Robinson, Nico Collins, Rashaad Penny, Braxton Berrios
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 15
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
After playing on a season-high 81% of the snaps and getting an 86.5% RB opportunity share in Week 13, Javonte Williams' snap share (49%) and RB opportunity share (43.5%) both decreased in Week 14 with Melvin Gordon's return to the lineup. He still rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown, but they were playing the Lions. A few good matchups are ahead, but as long as Gordon is healthy, Williams is no longer a "set it and forget it" RB1.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard "started" in Week 14 vs. the Falcons, but only managed to play on 39% of the snaps. He rushed 10 times for 33 yards and a score. The touchdown salvaged his day for all the fantasy managers who rolled him out there last week, but with the Panthers trailing for most of that game, it was Ameer Abdullah who played on 59% of the snaps. Abdullah ran 23 routes to Hubbard's eight. With some tough upcoming matchups against the Bills, Buccaneers, and Saints, it looks like we're going to be seeing more of Ameer Abdullah and less of Chuba Hubbard in negative game scripts. Abdullah may just be the preferred option in PPR formats moving forward.
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team
Remember when RSJ took over for Logan Thomas earlier in the season and played 100% of the snaps and was essentially utilized as a wide receiver? Well, that didn't happen in Week 14. In fact, John Bates ran more routes (27 vs. 17) and played on a higher % of snaps (71% vs. 46%) than Seals-Jones. The Football Team has two very favorable matchups for tight ends against the Eagles in the fantasy football playoffs, but it looks like RSJ is now in a full-blown timeshare with the rookie out of Boise State. Therefore, it doesn't look like we'll be able to take advantage of these favorable matchups, unfortunately.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Cover your ears. Pitts played on a season-low 54% of the snaps and ran just 21 routes in Week 14 against Carolina. Hayden Hurst returned after a multi-week absence and played on 62% of the snaps, running 12 routes of his own. Since his Week 7 explosion, Pitts is averaging just 3.3 receptions for 42.7 yards per game. He's only scored one touchdown this season, and that was all the way back in Week 5. Without Calvin Ridley, defenses have schemed to stop Kyle Pitts and it has worked. To make matters worse, he faces a very tough 49ers defense in San Francisco in Week 15.
Other Fallers: Dontrell Hilliard, Joe Mixon, Jeff Wilson Jr., Darnell Mooney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
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